El Nino Watch: The impacts around the world this week

With torrential rains in India and Nepal, and drought already devastating South America, this year’s exceptionally strong El Nino is being felt across the globe.

It threatens rice and coffee harvests to such an extent that the World Bank expects food prices to rise by 18 percent next year.

Here is how El Nino is playing out across AFP’s network.

– Cyclone lashes India –

Ferocious winds and torrential rain lashed India’s southeastern coast after a cyclone made landfall on Wednesday, killing at least three people and triggering nearly 100,000 evacuations.

“Our homes get flooded, and we have to stay in the water,” said Rajeshwari, 65, who gave only one name, after being taken to a government-run shelter near Kakinada, close to the heart of the storm.

Cyclones, called hurricanes in the North Atlantic and typhoons in the Pacific, are a regular menace in the Bay of Bengal and northern Indian Ocean.

The storm season, however, has been turbocharged by the El Nino weather phenomenon that has contributed to unprecedented warming.

Cyclone Arnab then moved on towards Nepal, bringing heavy snowfall to the high Himalayan regions and intense rain through Saturday.

– Bolivia declares state of emergency –

In Bolivia, drought is affecting 78,000 families in six of the country’s nine departments and has led to the loss of more than 75,000 cattle, according to a government report this week.

On Saturday, the Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz declared a state of emergency to free up resources for dealing with the impact of El Nino.

“This will be a phenomenon that will have very severe impacts in terms of drought and floods, and we need the cooperation of all institutions,” Paz said.

In neighbouring countries such as Peru, El Nino has ramped up temperatures and triggered forest fires that have already claimed the lives of at least 12 people.

It has also helped spread the tropical disease dengue fever.

In Chile meanwhile it is behind the rainiest October ever recorded in Santiago.

– El Nino in numbers –

According to the World Bank, food prices are expected to rise by 18 percent between 2025 and 2027, a surge explained both by supply difficulties caused by conflicts and by the anticipated effects of El Nino.

Since June, the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab estimates that 484,500 excess heat-related deaths have occurred globally due to the weather phenomenon.

The organisation projects about 373,000 additional deaths could occur over the next six months.

– Vulnerable crops –

Coffee, cocoa, rice… in this “Super” El Nino year, what are the most vulnerable crops?

The answer depends on the region, but “from a food-security perspective, the crops of greatest concern are staple foods because they provide the bulk of calories consumed by populations in vulnerable countries,” Maximo Torero, chief economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), told AFP.

El Nino particularly affects rice in regions where it reduces rainfall, especially in Asia, where it can limit planting and yields.

Corn and beans, which are essential in Mexico, Central America and southern Africa, are also exposed to a heightened risk of drought.

Even sorghum and millet, vital in East Africa and more resistant to water shortages, can suffer from prolonged rainfall deficits, according to the FAO, while wheat yields can also be hit by erratic precipitation.

Beyond their impact on local availability and prices, such situations can trigger a shock in global prices for major cereals and send the import bill soaring for countries dependent on foreign supplies.

The FAO is also closely monitoring export-oriented crops such as cocoa and coffee, which are sensitive both to excessive and insufficient rainfall — too much rain encourages disease, too little harms quality and volume.

A bad year can affect the incomes of local farmers and foreign currency earnings for producing countries, while also driving up world prices.