Early Week 8 NFL betting, odds: 2 wagers that I like right now

My biggest NFL takeaway as we approach Week 8 is that there is no clear Super Bowl favorite.

So before I get into some early Week 8 best bets, I wanted to shout out some Super Bowl futures at BetMGM that I could be talked into placing. If any of these resonate with you, place a small wager on it. But I recommend only taking one or max two, and not a lot into the same market at once.

• Seattle Seahawks to repeat with the league best defense (11-1)

• Jacksonville Jaguars because they are both skilled and very healthy (14-1)

• Green Bay Packers because Jordan Love is the most underrated QB in the league, and they are due to get Micah Parsons back soon (35-1)

• Pittsburgh Steelers because of the way they can run the ball, Aaron Rodgers has the most passing touchdowns in the league and a defense that has room to improve with great veterans (80-1)

Now, let’s move on to two actionable bets for NFL Week 8.

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 53.5)

One of my firmest beliefs in sports betting is that injury news has become among the biggest edges available.

Simply studying and scouring injury information and becoming an expert at forecasting injury news before it breaks will lead you to becoming a profitable bettor. Two weeks ago I executed a similar strategy taking the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because I felt Baker Mayfield wouldn’t be ready to return. This time, I think Baltimore Ravens QB Lamar Jackson will play.

Jackson practiced twice last week in limited capacity before being ruled out for Sunday’s against the Bengals. Tyler Huntley started, looked great for the first half before collapsing and turning a 13-point lead into a 25-point loss. This week I expect Lamar to get in at least three limited practices, be upgraded to full on Saturday and be ready to go. We will first get news on Wednesday, so this is a spot to get in front of.

With Jackson in, I price this line at Ravens +2.75, and therefore I expect the line to be either +3 (-120) or +2.5 (+100). With a current price of +3.5 (-118) at BetMGM, being right forecasting this news and projecting the closing line would net a +7.93% edge. Grab the Ravens to cover now.

Bet: Ravens +3.5 (-118)

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets (-1, 45.5)

The Las Vegas Raiders are on a four-game losing streak after their 3-0 start. I think the biggest reason for that is the strength of schedule and opponents they have faced rather than their own shortcomings. The losses were to the Los Angeles Rams, Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills — four teams that are vying to be Super Bowl contenders.

The true value of the Raiders lies somewhere in the middle of their hot start and their current losing streak, but they are currently priced as the 25th-best team in NFL market ratings. Kirk Cousins is top five in passing yards per game and No. 1 in total passing touchdowns with 16. He also only has five turnovers, boasting a strong QB rating and TD:INT ratio.

When head coach Klint Kubiak announced they would look at changing the starting QB this week to No. 1 overall draft pick Fernando Mendoza, I was skeptical about wanting the Raiders here, but with the Tuesday coaches quotes saying Cousins will remain the starter, the Raiders are a buy for me.

I think there is a large coaching advantage and a noteworthy QB advantage here both favoring the Raiders. This team is currently priced as a very slight underdog and I wouldn’t be surprised if they closed as as a favorite here.

Bet: Raiders ML -105