Early Week 1 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Denver Broncos

We are mere hours away from Week 1 of the 2026-27 NFL season kicking off.

Before I get into a few actionable spots in both the main and player prop markets for these games, I already wrote up articles about Week 1 bets this offseason and a Week 1 power ratings article, which featured the following wagers already given out.

1. New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks under 44.5.

2. Atlanta Falcons +3 is now at +3.5 because of some Falcons defensive injuries.
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3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 at Cincinnati Bengals .

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks under 44.5.

Atlanta Falcons +3 is now at +3.5 because of some Falcons defensive injuries.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 at Cincinnati Bengals .

All of these are still actionable in addition to the following plays I am adding on.

Despite this being a Super Bowl rematch to kick off the 2026 NFL season, a lot of pieces in the game have changed. The Seahawks lost key parts of their defense, most notably safety Coby Bryant to the Bears, and defensive back Riq Woolen and edge rusher Boye Mafe in free agency. Nick Emmanwori has also popped up on the most recent Seahawks injury report and beat writers are saying he is actually likely to miss the game. Seattle’s stout defense has some holes now. 

This creates an advantage for new Patriots WR AJ Brown to dominate. He is going to get a ton of usage, be a primary red zone threat and he can win in the deep passing and explosive playmaking game. There were rumors Drake Maye’s shoulder was hurt last postseason, and perhaps some time to recover will provide better field-stretching ability for Maye against a weaker Seahawks secondary.

The best odds in market to attack this is AJ Brown anytime touchdown at +165 odds.

Football is a game of inches, one that is often won in the trenches. While the skill players get all the recognition, simply being the better offensive and defensive line are major advantages in games. Philadelphia should dominate Washington on both sides of the line this game.

According to the Trench Report by Scott Seidenberg, the Eagles rank as the second-best team in offensive and defensive line skill while the Commanders rank 30th. My preseason power ratings also price this game at Eagles -6.2, and to cement the play, the line movement in market has been backing the Eagles against the spread.

I like both the Eagles spread and moneyline here. Right now at BetMGM, the spread is Eagles -4.5 (-110) and moneyline -235. A spread-to-moneyline conversion puts this at -224 at equal value, so right now I would choose to play this -4.5 (-110). If the numbers move, use these guidelines as a way to know what best line to choose.

This is primarily a market read bet, but I will add on some football perspective as well.

The Chiefs opened as three-point favorites over the Broncos, and subsequently all of the Denver +3 lines were bet and taken out of the market. Because 3 is such a key number, and we saw the market buy Denver +3, I think it is safe to say we do not see that line reappear.

We can still play Denver +2.5 at only -102 vig, which feels like a floor price on Denver. To me, floor prices are attractive because I don’t see a realistic possibility where the line gets worse and moves against you, and I do see a chance it still gains further value. The asymmetry is worth playing into.

From an on-field perspective, Mahomes is coming off of a torn ACL late last season and is unlikely to be as mobile as he was for the majority of last year. The Chiefs skill position players have questions, too: Rashee Rice also had a knee surgery that he had to rehab while serving a jail sentence; Travis Kelce is a year older, a year slower, and going against a very strong Broncos linebacker group; and Kenneth Walker is joining a new team where he hasn’t had regular season reps with a new offensive line and run scheme.

For those reasons, I can see Kansas City struggling to build offensive momentum against one of the league’s best defenses.

Bet: Broncos +2.5 (-102) and some Broncos ML (+120)