D-backs vs. Dodgers Discussion

DODGERSDIAMONDBACKSShohei Ohtani – DHGeraldo Perdomo – SSAndy Pages – CFCorbin Carroll – RFFreddie Freeman – 1BGabriel Moreno – CTommy Edman – 2BKetel Marte – DHMookie Betts – SSNolan Arenado – 3BKyle Tucker – RFIldemaro Vargas – 2BTeoscar Hernandez – LFTim Tawa – CFEnrique Hernandez – 3BTyler Locklear – 1BBen Rortvedt – CRyan Waldschmidt – LFJustin Wrobleski – LHPE. Rodriguez – LHPWe came into this weekend with the season series tied 5-5. The first two contests have been split, each being won by the narrowest of margins, and could have gone either way. And, so, we reach Sunday for the rubber game, both in this set and of the entire 2026 campaign. The good news is, if we see the Dodgers again this year, it’s going to be in the playoffs. I’m fine with that. Eduardo Rodriguez had a rough outing last time out, against the Padres, allowing 11 hits over five innings. However, he was victimized by a .440 BABIP, and it’s hard to blame him for that kind of thing. His FIP actually dropped in that start. Here’s to better this afternoon.

I’m kinda amused that, after last night, the number of “Why is Torey bunting?” complaints this year is probably about the same as the number of “Why isn’t Torey bunting?” complaints this year. Yes, bunting a runner from second to third is normally a waste of an out, now we don’t have to worry about pitchers coming to the plate. But it does increase your odds of scoring something – albeit at a decline in the chances of a big inning. When you’re down by one and must score or the game is over, it makes sense to maximize those odds. Now, Tawa failed to execute on his two attempts. But if it had worked, the tying run might well have scored on McCann’s infield single.

All told, this year there have been 39 actual sacrifice bunt attempts by Arizona (as classified by BR, which is only ones resulting in a ball in play, so Tawa’s last night would not count). Those have resulted in 27 successes, eight hits and four failures (where the lead runner was out). All told, they have contributed +50% to Win Probability, so you’d be hard pushed to call it a failed tactic. I’ve a feeling we all suffer from confirmation bias in this area, with people remembering the times their preferred tactic was not followed by Torey Lovullo, and in particular the occasions when things didn’t work out.

CorbinCarrollEnthusiast on the guest recap this afternoon. I believe he is unbeaten in that role this season, so I hope the streak continues!