Could Vinicius Jr. to Arsenal really happen? The roadblocks to clear as Gunners chase Real Madrid star

Could Vinicius Jr. to Arsenal really happen? The roadblocks to clear as Gunners chase Real Madrid star originally appeared on The Sporting News.
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Arsenal are hoping to make the 2026/27 season even better than the last, as the Gunners won a historic Premier League title — their first since 2004 — and reached the Champions League final.

They are dealing with a lot of moving parts as the new campaign nears its opening, as they were forced to watch as a number of players competed for their national teams at the World Cup. This has left the Arsenal squad looking much thinner than usual at the start of a new season and left the front office to consider filling a number of holes, both temporarily and more permanently.

Arsenal fans have been recently electrified by the reports that the Gunners are floating the idea of moving for Real Madrid superstar Vinicius Jr, as per both ESPN and The Athletic. The Brazilian is undoubtedly one of the most popular and well-known players in the entire world, and the idea that such a huge name could be on the move to the Emirates is an exciting thought.

Yet a deal of this magnitude between two European giants faces big obstacles before it can become a more tangible reality.

The Sporting News details why Arsenal makes sense as a possible transfer destination for Vinicius Jr, and what hurdles — mostly financial — must be cleared before such a massive deal could be considered a possibility.

MORE:Where Yan Diomande signing ranks in Real Madrid transfer history

How much would Vinicius Jr. cost Arsenal?

There is no doubt that Real Madrid would demand a premium for Vinicius Jr., almost certainly enough to set an Arsenal transfer record beyond the £105 million ($130.6 million) shelled out for Declan Rice three years ago, and even potentially blow well past it.

However, there is one mitigating factor that could work in Arsenal’s favor and see the Gunners able to reach an agreement. Vini is entering the last year of his contract at Real Madrid, and the 26-year-old has to this point not managed to agree to an extension.

Vini had publicly rebuffed Real Madrid’s advances early last year when he was feuding with Xabi Alonso, but after Alonso departed, those talks have not yet rematerialised.

According to Spanish-based publication Sport, Real Madrid won’t consider anything below their asking price of €160m (£137m / $182.4m). At that price, it’s almost surely a non-starter for Arsenal, who must work within the financial regulations of both the Premier League and UEFA. However, if they can negotiate that down somewhat and pressure Madrid, who know they risk losing Vini for free if they do not sell now, then they might be able to find a more workable deal.

Why Vinicius Jr. would be an ideal fit at Arsenal

Arsenal won the Premier League title last season and reached the Champions League final, owing to the nearly complete squad that Mikel Arteta has at his disposal.

Yet there is one position that has been a gaping hole for the club across multiple seasons: left wing.

Last season, Leandro Trossard managed to hold down the position for the most part, but his modest production of eight goals and 11 assists across all competitions left something to be desired. Gabriel Martinelli chipped in as well, especially early in the Champions League, but only managed one Premier League goal.

With Trossard now off to Besiktas after a strong World Cup performance that came too little too late for the Gunners to place much faith in, Arsenal spent big money on young Greek left winger Christos Tzolis, a 24-year-old late-bloomer from Club Brugge who excels on set-pieces.

But there’s no denying that Vinicius would be a smashing success at Emirates Stadium, able to share the load with Bukayo Saka, who has been run into the proverbial ground under Arteta and has struggled with fitness lately as a result.

There isn’t endless money at the Emirates this summer. They have already shelled out nearly €40m (£34m / $45.6m) for Tzolis and are eyeing Bruno Guimaraes as an important addition to the midfield, with Rice likely out to start the season. But if they can make the financials work and ultimately prioritise this splash over what could be argued as an overreach for a stopgap in Guimaraes, then Vini would fill an enormous need for Arsenal and could position the Gunners to make an even stronger run both domestically and in Europe.

Why would Real Madrid sell Vinicius Jr.?

The contract situation is the biggest driver for Real Madrid to potentially sell Vinicius. If they cannot come to an agreement on a long-term contract, there is no way club president Florentino Perez would want to let such an enormously valuable asset walk for free next summer.

Even if the negotiations run until January before petering out, Madrid would likely recoup a fraction of what they could by selling him this summer — surely well less than half his current value at that point.

Thus, they will be highly motivated to strike a deal now if the need arises.

However, there’s more than just that at the heart of this deal. Even if it breaks his heart to consider the fact, Perez must be well aware by now that Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius will always struggle to co-exist in the same lineup. Two top managers now in Carlo Ancelotti and Alonso both failed to create an environment where both can play the minutes they expect while being the focal point of the attack. Too often, the two players vulture each other’s touches and chances in front of goal, to a level that is unsustainable.

Even as Mbappe racks up huge totals in front of goal, the two have still produced what appears to be a net negative effect on the club’s results. Last season, Vini’s best stretch of production came during the short time Mbappe was out injured.

Now, with Yan Diomande in the door for a huge fee, Vinicius’ minutes are set to decline further. With Diomande dribbling down the right, and Mbappe often drifting to Vini’s space on the left, the Brazilian will have to find a way to get the volume of touches he wants. Knowing Vinicius’ desire to be on the ball at a high rate, is that truly a winning formula?

No matter how much Perez loves his Brazilian star winger, and what lengths Madrid have previously gone to defend and support him, they must see how his presence in the squad comes at a great cost. They very well may be resigned to bringing his time at the Santiago Bernabeu to an end, and in the process, securing the great financial windfall that would come from such an emotional parting of ways.

Could Arsenal afford Vinicius’ wages?

There is, without question, one massive roadblock looming larger than anything else preventing Arsenal — or, in truth, any club outside Saudi Arabia — signing Vinicius: his exorbitant wage demands.

Salary has been a major sticking point in the negotiations for a new deal at Real Madrid. His current reported gross earnings of €25m ($28.5m) per year are set to increase — but by how much is the question.

According to The Times, which cites Spanish publication AS, Real Madrid have offered a new take-home salary of around €20m ($22.8m), which comes out to around €28.5m ($32.5m) gross. However, Vinicius has demanded a much higher wage more in line with Mbappe, the club’s highest earner, who is paid around €31m ($35.4m) gross plus a significant bonus on top of that.

Arsenal, in their current makeup, could not come close to this. Their highest earner is Saka, who stands at a gross salary figure of about £300,000 (€351,000 / $400,000) per week, or about £15.6m (€18.3m / $20.9m) per year. Mbappe’s salary, which Vinicius reportedly wants to make, would come out to almost 170% of Saka’s earnings.

One way Arsenal would be able to even end up in Vini’s ballpark is if they were to concede the player’s highly valuable image rights, as Michelle of Just Arsenal suggests. However, this is something that owner Stan Kroenke and Arsenal’s decision-makers would likely balk at, making a deal extremely difficult. In this scenario, both parties may have to make significant concessions if they are to agree to personal terms, a step that usually comes before an agreement between the clubs on a fee.

However, The Telegraph reported on July 26 that Arsenal were prepared to offer Vinicius an improvement on his wages at Madrid, which would take him closer to those Mbappe figures he wants while smashing their own salary structure at the same time. It would, in simple terms, be “the biggest contract in the club’s history”, and one that underlines their “soaring ambition”.

Either way, this is going to be an extremely expensive deal for the Gunners if it ultimately comes together.