College Football Playoff Rankings Raise Miami-Notre Dame Game Stakes

Saturday’s Notre Dame-Miami football game already had plenty of intrigue. It is the first time since 1988 that the teams have played when each is in the top five of the Associated Press poll. The Hurricanes are No. 1, while the Fighting Irish are No. 4, just like they were 38 years ago when Notre Dame pulled off a one point victory and ended up winning its last national title. But the initial College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday night put even more significance on Saturday’s contest.

The CFP selection committee has Miami first and Notre Dame 11th. If the Irish win, they would be in a prime position to earn a spot in the 12-team playoff. But if they lose, they would risk not getting a place in the field because of their weak schedule. Notre Dame (7-1) has only faced one team in the CFP’s top 25, losing 28-24 at No. 9 BYU last month. And after Miami, the Irish do not face another ranked team in their final three regular season games.

“The committee is impressed by (the Irish’s) performance on both sides of the ball,” Hunter Yurachek, the CFP selection chair, told ESPN’s Rece Davis Tuesday night. “They are a very good football team. But when you look at Notre Dame’s schedule and the wins that they have versus the teams that are ahead of them, they don’t have that signature win right now.”

In the first CFP rankings last year, Notre Dame was No. 10 and Miami was No. 18 even though the teams had the same records and the Hurricanes defeated the Irish by three points at home in the season opener. The Hurricanes trailed Notre Dame in each of the rankings until the last week when they received the final at-large berth. The selection committee justified the move by noting Miami’s win over the Irish, but Notre Dame athletics director Pete Bevacqua criticized the decision, noting that the program had “a collective feeling that we were all just punched in the stomach.”

This year, Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it finishes in the top 12, a provision that was negotiated before last season’s controversy. But with the way the initial rankings shook out, Saturday represents a must-win for the Irish, which entered the season No. 4 in the AP poll and with national title aspirations.

Outside of the BYU loss, Notre Dame has dominated its opponents and leads the nation with a 27-point average scoring margin over Football Bowl Subdivision foes. Although the Irish have the 55th-toughest strength of schedule in the FBS, they are first in ESPN’s Football Power Index, which is a forward-looking metric. And they are favored to win by six points over Miami (8-0), one of only three undefeated teams in the nation. The Hurricanes have won their games against FBS teams by 24.1 points per game, but they have not played a ranked team yet and have the 49th-toughest strength of schedule.

A year ago, Miami advanced to the national title game, where it lost 27-21 to Indiana, which finished 16-0. The Hurricanes were one of only three teams outside of the top 12 in the initial CFP rankings to advance to the playoffs. The other two were Tulane and James Madison, which received automatic berths for winning their conferences.

This year, the four conference champions from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC are guaranteed a berth in the 12-team field, as is the highest-ranked team from another league. Boise State at No. 25 is the only team outside the major conferences ranked in the initial CFP poll.

The SEC has five of the top 10 teams in the CFP rankings in No. 2 Georgia, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Kentucky, No. 7 Texas and No. 10 Ole Miss. Georgia and Kentucky are each 7-1, while the other three are 6-2.

Georgia’s lone loss came against unranked Auburn, and it only has two wins against ranked opponents in Alabama and No. 24 Florida (5-3). Kentucky’s only loss came against Alabama by 28 points in early September, and it only has one ranked victory over No. 14 LSU (6-2).

Alabama, meanwhile, has lost two of its past three games, including a 26-10 defeat two weeks ago at Tennessee, which is No. 13 in the CFP even though it has the same record as the Crimson Tide. Texas has the three best wins of any team with victories over Ole Miss, Tennessee and No. 12 Ohio State, but it also lost to Florida and unranked Oklahoma, both by 27-24. And Ole Miss has losses at Florida by 24 points and at Texas by seven, as well as victories over LSU and No. 18 Missouri (6-2).

The other top 10 teams are No. 3 Utah and No. 8 UCLA, which are each 8-0 and the only other programs besides Miami that remain undefeated, and No. 4 Indiana (8-1), the reigning national champion. The Hoosiers are eight spots higher than Ohio State even though the Buckeyes defeated IU, 19-14, last month. The Hoosiers have no victories against a team in the CFP’s top 25, either. Ohio State (6-2) is coming off a 30-18 loss at No. 20 USC (7-2) and also lost to Texas by a point.

While the initial CFP rankings always leave some fan bases upset and confounded, there are still four weeks remaining of the regular season plus the conference championship games before the field is announced on Dec. 6. And this Saturday should play a major role in shaking up the rankings. Not only does Notre Dame host Miami, but there are four other games featuring teams in the top 14, with No. 3 Utah hosting No. 9 BYU, No. 5 Alabama hosting No. 14 LSU, No. 6 Kentucky hosting No. 13 Tennessee and No. 2 Georgia hosting No. 10 Ole Miss. Those games will help determine the teams that will make the CFP and have a chance to play for the national title on Jan. 25 in Las Vegas.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com