Cincinnati vs. West Virginia game preview: College fantasy football breakdown for key matchup in Week 7

Each week, I’m spotlighting the most impactful game on the schedule for College Fantasy Football purposes. Hopefully these team CFF profiles can help tilt the scales one way or the other if you’re looking for a decent streaming option to plug into your starting lineup. 

The CFF Dream Team takes center stage

West Virginia is a bonafide College Fantasy Football dream team, pairing a potent offense that operates at the fastest pace in the nation with the 115th-ranked defense that ranks dead last among 138 FBS programs in 20+ yard plays allowed (11%). Not only has every WVU game cleared their designated market Over, but they’re comfortably sailing past the weekly number by 12.5 points per game.

 In true Rich Rod fashion, the Mountaineers offense is heavily slanted towards the run, ranking fourth in FBS with an 84% run rate on standard downs. They have been solid but unspectacular, ranking 42nd in yards per rush (5.4) and 46th with a 46.5 rushing success rate, the relentless pounding of the rock sets their passing game up for chunk plays. West Virginia ranks first nationally in yards per successful dropback (21.7) and second with a ridiculous 38% of completions accruing 20+ yards. 

QB Michael Hawkins Jr. is throwing to receivers 62% of the time (fourth in FBS), which has elevated WR DJ Epps into a boom-or-bust starting option, averaging 28.1 YPC with three games of 17+ points and three games under six points. QB Michael Hawkins is the overall QB1, amassing 204.4 points thus far, which is 28.1 points higher than the second-place signal caller (Gio Lopez). 

We cannot forget about RB Cam Cook, who currently ranks eighth among P4 rushers with 132.4 points and has scored 24.5+ points or more in four of six contests for an average of 22.1 PPG. No need to roster a TE or WR2 in this offense, but Cook and Hawkins are legitimately elite, matchup-proof QB1/RB1-level performers who should be started everywhere. 

Can Cincinnati bounce back on offense?

The Bearcats got smothered by Arizona’s surprisingly stout defense that slots in at 28th in SP+ D rankings and were outgained by AZ 522-to-227 total yards with Cinci scoring just seven points. However, against their other four opponents, Cincinnati is undefeated and averaging 40.5 points per game. 

The UC offensive line boasts two NFL-caliber tackles and has been virtually impenetrable in pass protection, allowing a microscopic .7% pressure rate which ranks third in FBS, and is clearing the way for 3.6 yards before contact that is the sixth-best mark nationally. 

The run game has been excellent, averaging 6.5 YPC (7th) and 10.7 yards per successful rush (23rd), while running the ball 49% of the time on passing downs (FBS Avg = 36%). Cincinnati ranks fifth among P4 programs averaging 231 rushing YPG with 138 of the team’s 182 carries being distributed between RB Gi’Bran Payne (62 carries), RB Cole Tabb (34) and QB JC French IV (42). Despite being outcarried by Payne by an almost two-to-one ratio, Tabb is averaging a gaudy 9.7 YPC with six touchdowns to Payne’s two, is outpacing Payne 18.3-to-4.1 in receiving points and breaks tackles at twice the rate Payne is (38%-to-19%). The receiving component is especially relevant since Cincinnati throws to running backs 21.5% of the time, which is the same target rate as UC’s slot receivers. Payne still outcarried Tabb 11-to-6 last game despite the disparity in production, though I expect Tabb to gradually eat away at Payne’s touches as the season progresses. 

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QB JC French IV is churning out 5.7 YPC with 239 yards and five touchdowns on the ground to go with a 70% completion rate and 6-to-0 TD/INT ratio, averaging a respectable 21.8 PPG. On the downside, he is sporting an elevated 28.6% sack-per-pressure rate and Cinci ranks 113th with just 13% of passes gaining 20+ yards, so his rushing acumen is extremely important to his fantasy profile. He is worth starting in this premium matchup if your primary QB1 is on bye or facing a superior opponent. 

The lack of an explosive passing aspect to their offense suppresses the upside of Cinci’s wideouts, with JV Gibson being the only viable fantasy wideout on the team. And even Gibson has flaws, averaging 15.3 PPG over his first three games but receiving just five targets over the last two contests and scoring a meager 7.6 points total. JV is a desperation flex play and is likely available on the wire since he’s only rostered in 7% of leagues. 

Expect the Mountaineer run game to climb great heights vs. Bearcats

Defensively, West Virginia should have their way with Cincinnati on the ground, with the Bearcats allowing a 48% rushing success rate (122nd) and 5.3 yards per carry (105th). They are also allowing a high 37 yards per drive (119th) with a 74% down set conversion rate (106th), as teams are able to stay on schedule and mount time-consuming drives that allow opponents to rip off 69 plays per game (104th). WVU QB Michael Hawkins Jr. and RB Cam Cook should have a very favorable defensive environment to work with.