Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.
Vincent Kompany has led Bayern Munich to the title in each of his first two seasons in charge, and their dominance is not showing any signs of slowing down.
They cruised to the title with four games to spare in 2025-26, and completed a domestic double after ending their six-year wait to get their hands back on the DFB-Pokal, beating Stuttgart in the final.
Bayern have topped the charts in 13 of the last 14 seasons, with only Xabi Alonso’s Bayer Leverkusen able to pip them to the title in 2023-24, so the Bavarians are once again the team to beat.
Borussia Dortmund had some mid-season hope they could overthrow their bitter rivals last term, only to fall short and finish well adrift, with RB Leipzig, Stuttgart and surprise package Hoffenheim even further back.
At the other end, Heidenheim and St. Pauli were both relegated, as were stalwarts Wolfsburg, who lost the relegation/promotion play-off 2-1 to Paderborn across two legs. Schalke and Elversberg join them back in the top-flight.
Will somebody mount a stern challenge against Bayern for the title, or will Kompany’s men claim a record-extending 36th title? And who will be dragged into the relegation battle?
It is anybody’s call at this stage, but we have called on the Opta supercomputer for its pre-season predictions.
Bayern expected to continue dominance
Once again, the Opta supercomputer expects Bayern to dominate the Bundesliga this season after breezing to the title in the last two seasons.
They were crowned the 2025-26 champions all the way back on April 19, making it the fifth-quickest Bundesliga win in history as they wrapped it up with four games to spare.
Bayern also set the record for the most goals scored in a single Bundesliga campaign, scoring 122 times – no other team across Europe hit the 100-goal mark (Barcelona were closest with 95).
Kompany’s side were seemingly untouchable last term, finishing a whopping 16 points clear of second-place Dortmund. They also lost just once in the league, suffering a shock 2-1 defeat to Augsburg in January.
So, it is no surprise that the supercomputer has them down as overwhelming favourites to clinch the crown for a third season running at 76.5%.
Der @FCBayern gewinnt den Franz Beckenbauer Supercup 2026 – herzlichen Glückwunsch
— BUNDESLIGA (@Bundesliga_DE) August 22, 2026
Bayern have already made a winning start to 2026-27, beating Dortmund 2-1 to lift the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup, which they will hope is a good omen.
They only dropped points in six games last term (D5 L1), winning 28 games. They also topped the charts for expected goals (100.9 xG), while only Dortmund (34) conceded fewer goals than them (36).
The reigning champions have a formidable forward line including Harry Kane – who scored 61 goals for Bayern in all competitions in 2025-26 – Luis Diaz and Michael Olise.
Bayern have also added Ismail Saibari to that list, while Nathaniel Brown is another new addition who impressed in pre-season and scored in their Supercup win.
Kompany’s team are given a 98% chance of qualifying for the Champions League – a trophy the Belgian is desperate to add to his collection – while they are in no danger of relegation at 0%.
It looks like the title is Bayern’s to lose, but will anyone be able to throw a spanner in the works?
Dortmund and Leipzig to lead the chasing pack?
As usual, Dortmund are expected to be in the mix at the top.
Heading into their second full season under Niko Kovac, they are given an 8.3% chance of pipping Bayern to top spot, though their most likely finishing position is second (23.4%).
A disappointing first half in the Franz Beckenbauer Supercup gave them a mountain to climb, but Dortmund have shown they are willing to take the fight to Bayern.
One thing Kovac will be keen to do is continue their strong defensive form, as they conceded the fewest goals in the Bundesliga last term, but Dortmund’s bigger problem could be figuring out where the goals are going to come from.
Their transfer business has not been particularly flashy this window, even after losing Karim Adeyemi, but they are expected to extend that run.
115 – Karim Adeyemi war in der Pflichtspiel-Saison 2025/26 alle 115 Minuten an einem Tor von Borussia Dortmund direkt beteiligt (10 Tore, 6 Assists in 1836 Minuten) – das ist @BVB-Bestwert. Effizient. pic.twitter.com/WyXP49XaF9
— OptaFranz (@OptaFranz) July 22, 2026
The next closest is Bayer Leverkusen, who are now under the management of Carles Martinez after a turbulent 2025-26 saw them go through two bosses. They have a 5.3% chance of claiming a second title in four years.
Only four other teams are given a higher-than-1% chance of getting their hands on the Bundesliga trophy.
Stuttgart (2.9%) are the best of the rest, ahead of RB Leipzig (2.7%), Freiburg (1.23%) and Hoffenheim (1.15%), despite them being projected to finish above last season’s Europa League winners in the table.
Stuttgart, Leipzig and Hoffenheim tipped for Champions League battle
At 62.6%, Dortmund are strong candidates to join Bayern in the Champions League places next season, with their Klassiker rivals being given an almost perfect chance.
BVB have qualified for UEFA’s premier competition in each of the last 14 seasons. There is a 9.6% chance they drop as low as the Europa League, and a further 7.5% of having to qualify for the Conference League.
Leverkusen will be playing in the Europa League this term after major struggles in 2025-26, though they are expected to return to the Champions League, with a 52.9% likelihood of finishing in the top four.
They have already received a big boost this season, winning their opening match under Martinez in the DFB-Pokal 4-0, albeit against third-tier Wehen Wiesbaden.
But the race for the final spot is expected to be tight, with the supercomputer only separating Stuttgart and Leipzig by a small margin.
Stuttgart clinch a top-four spot in 39.9% of the simulations, while Martin Demichelis’ Leipzig side, who are without Yan Diomande after his big-money move to Real Madrid, do so in 37.9%.
It is expected to be a good battle for the Champions League spots, though, with plenty of sides given an outside chance of upsetting the expected balance.
Hoffenheim were surprise contenders for the top four last season, ultimately finishing just one point shy, settling for a place in the Europa League instead.
Their chances of improving on that finish sit at 22.7%, slightly higher than Freiburg, who secure a top-four place in 21.7% of the simulations. It is also worth noting Mainz have a healthy 15.7% chance of doing so.
Given such a tight tussle is expected for the Champions League places, the chances of some teams dropping to the Europa League could be worth noting.
Leipzig have the highest probability of playing in Europe’s second tier at 10.79%, only marginally more than Leverkusen’s 10.77%. Stuttgart are also given a 10.7% chance of finishing either fifth or sixth.
Can the new boys survive the relegation scrap?
Schalke are back in the Bundesliga for the first time since 2021, while Elversberg are playing in the top tier for the first time in their history after finishing as runners-up in the second tier.
And there are three new kids on the block after Paderborn ended Wolfsburg’s 29-year stay in the Bundesliga thanks to Laurin Curda’s strike in the 10th minute of extra time in the second leg of the play-off.
All of those teams are expected to be in the relegation scrap, but while Schalke (24.2%) are the favourites to go down, they are expected to do so alongside Koln (23.6%).
Schalke will be hoping the experience – and goals – of Edin Dzeko can help their cause after they re-signed him earlier this summer.
Koln finished 14th last season, but conceded 63 goals in the Bundesliga, the fourth-highest total in the competition, with two of the teams above them on that chart going down, so they will be keen to tighten up at the back.
Ready for the start of the season! #S04 | #HFCS04 pic.twitter.com/jUalikagrz
— FC Schalke 04 (@s04_en) August 23, 2026
Elversberg’s chances of an immediate return to the second tier are only slightly lower at 22.9%, while Paderborn have the best chance of staying up among the newly promoted sides, according to the supercomputer, though their chance of relegation still sits at 23.88%.
If anything, they are most likely to end up in the 16th-place play-off, with their 10.7% chance higher than any other side, with Schalke (10.3%) only marginally behind them.
Koln’s chances are 10.2%, while Elversberg are the fourth-likeliest to have to contest the play-off at 10%.
Werder Bremen, who finished 15th in 2025-26, just three points clear of Wolfsburg below them, are expected to be in the fight again, with a 19.9% probability of automatic relegation, while Hamburg are just ahead of them at 19.93%.
Union Berlin are also an outside bet at being dragged down, though their relegation chances are a healthier 14.2%.
They made a strong start last term before slipping towards danger due to a poor run at the end of the campaign, and new head coach Mauro Lustrinelli will be keen to find more consistency to avoid a similar nail-biting finish.
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