Broncos come in shockingly low in ESPN's preseason power index

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It’s still the NFL offseason, not even officially the preseason, so things like power rankings and predictions for the upcoming season are out in full force. 

ESPN recently put out its annual Football Power Index for the first time in the preseason, and the results were shocking. The Denver Broncos, widely considered one of the best teams heading into 2026, come in at No. 15 on the list, barely in the upper half of the league. Now, before you get all worked up, let’s talk about what this power index is. 

Here is what the power index entails, according to ESPN’s Seth Walder:

“FPI’s preseason predictive ratings are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a special teams rating that incorporates specific kickers. We use these ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, with the results forming our projections.

During the season, ratings updates are based on each team’s performance on offense, defense and special teams — adjusting for quality of opponent — along with quarterback performance and changes. Game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.”

Okay, now you can go ahead and get worked up. 

Broncos come in at No. 15 on ESPN’s Football Power Index

Not only are the Broncos at No. 15, the FPI has seven AFC teams (Buffalo, Baltimore, Los Angeles. Kansas City, Cincinnati, Houston and New England) all ahead of the Broncos. If that were to be accurate, the Broncos would not even be a playoff team in 2026. 

No one knows what to do with the Denver Broncos.

If I ask you what they aren’t at least a ‘B’ at positionally you could name…ILB?

If I asked you what their weaknesses are you couldn’t name any…

But they are the…8th best team in the AFC….?

This is a Bo Nix ranking. https://t.co/Rf1Rje7bv2

— Swipa (@SwipaCam) June 3, 2026

For a team with Super Bowl aspirations and hardly any turnover from last season, that would be a tough pill for the Broncos to swallow. So why did the team come in so low?

“Denver is coming off a very impressive season, but the FPI believes regression is coming. One major red flag was the Broncos’ 12-3 record (including playoffs) in one-score games last season — a rate that is unlikely to continue. That’s not something the FPI explicitly considers, but it is the sort of thing the betting market might, which in turn affects the FPI.

Also, like Seattle, Denver is led by a stellar defense. And even though that unit looks good again on paper, odds are it won’t be quite as good as it was in 2025. Plus, like with Mahomes, there is some Bo Nix injury risk baked in after the quarterback had a second procedure on his right ankle in April”, wrote Walder. 

The Broncos are going to hear about this one-score game thing all offseason. The fact that it continually comes up suggests that the team was lucky last year and critics are expecting that luck to run out. Bo Nix’s ankle is concerning, but it shouldn’t be any more concerning than what the Chiefs have to be concerned about following Patrick Mahomes’ ACL tear, and they are ranked No. 9 on this list. 

The Broncos regressing in 2026 is going to be a popular take as we get closer to the season and it will be popular with those placing bets on over/under totals before the season kicks off. But to have this team down this low, behind teams like the Bengals, Texans and Cowboys, is borderline absurdity. 

Broncos, Bo Nix, you’re still the underdogs. But that’s what led to the “overdogs”. 

HOT READ:Did former Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson play his way out of Hall of Fame?

It is an interesting formula that creates these rankings and those behind it will believe greatly in the metrics, but fortunately for the Broncos, the games are played on the field, not on a computer, and the Broncos will have a great chance to prove them completely wrong, much like they did throughout the 2025 season. 

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