Best Case, Worst Case, And Most Likely Scenarios for Wisconsin Football in 2026

Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell talks to his team during the second half against the Illinois Fighting Illini

Fall Camp for Luke Fickell’s lads is now under two weeks away, so it’s a perfect moment to take a stab at the Wisconsin Badgers’ 2026 win total in classic Scary Alvarez fashion.

Close your windows so the Canadian smoke doesn’t get in and gather around.

Although I’ve been reluctant to guess a win number for this squad, in this exercise I get to pick three so I’m more comfortable with it. And when I dare to dream, I can see a path forward for a 9-win Wisconsin season (pre bowl).

For this to come to fruition, a lot will need to go right, including relatively good health. The Badgers will need quarterback Colton Joseph to stay upright and on the field (along with their top talent across several positions, like linebacker and offensive line). The coaches will also have to bring it, staying consistently locked in.

Given their manageable schedule and upgraded talent, it’s definitely not a pipe dream to believe 9-3 could happen. But don’t write it in ink just yet.

Yes, there’s probably some PTSD in play here for me, but even with a much easier slate, there still aren’t many easy wins for the Badgers on tap. They’ll simply need to be a lot better than they were in 2025.

If some things don’t click with all the new pieces and the injury bug bites yet again, it’s not outlandish to imagine a season where the Badgers make a jump but can’t quite get it done in several games and ultimately fall flat with a third straight campaign without a bowl.

It goes without saying that this would mean the end of the Fickell era in Madison.

Given all of the optimism in Madison right now, this may seem a bit harsh, and I get that. But, as I noted above, I have a bit of PTSD that I’m still working through right now and when I revisit this in late August, I might up this based on what I see in camp.

The pieces seem to be in place right now at every position for a nice step forward, especially at quarterback and defensive back.

There are still some question marks at wide receiver and, to a lesser extent, offensive line, but I’m confident that every position group has the potential to be better this season, even a linebacker group that was already very good in 2025.

So, let’s say a solid 7-win season with a bowl game, at least one rivalry trophy, and Fickell back in 2027.