Are the Falcons back? Examining Atlanta's playoff chances after Michael Penix Jr.'s return

Are the Falcons back? Examining Atlanta’s playoff chances after Michael Penix Jr.’s return appeared first on ClutchPoints. Add ClutchPoints as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

It’s crazy how a team’s fortunes can change at a moment’s notice in the NFL. Before their game against the Green Bay Packers, many considered the Atlanta Falcons‘ season to already be over. After two brutal losses to start the year, it seemed like there was no more hope for this team moving forward.

However, the Falcons turned the narrative around with a resounding 35-14 win over the Green Bay Packers. The win coincided with former first-round pick Michael Penix Jr’s return to action. After suffering a torn ACL during the 2025 season, Penix returned to action and immediately helped Atlanta bounce back after a rough start.

Now, the real question is: can the Falcons make their way into the postseason? Let’s analyze their chances.

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Falcons’ playoff hopes alive and well after Penix’s performance

The Falcons have sneakily built one of the better offensive cores in the NFL. At the heart of their offense is, of course, Bijan Robinson. The electric running back led the league in rushing yards last season, and that’s by no accident. Robinson’s elusiveness and breakaway speed make him such a dangerous threat on the ground. Complementing Robinson’s ground assault is Drake London. The big-bodied wide receiver is an underrated wide receiver who’s a dangerous threat in all areas of the field.

The Falcons also have a solid offensive line, and their tight end, Kyle Pitts, is also a solid receiving threat on its own. However, the first two weeks this season showed that despite their talent, this team was not completely QB-proof. Cooper Rush might have had a few good games before as a backup, but he looked completely overmatched in 2026. Jack Strand, who filled in for Rush in Week 2 when the former was injured, was of no help either. Even Robinson was neutralized heavily, as teams were able to stack the box more and key in on the run without worrying about the passing attack.

Penix isn’t a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. He might not even be a top-15 quarterback. However, he’s proven himself to be an adequate signal-caller, at the very least. On his best days, you can trust him to not lose you the game, something that you can’t say for Rush and Strand. The Falcons’ new-look offense also seems like it fits Penix better, too.

A weak division

What truly makes the Falcons a potential playoff team, though, is the division they play in. It’s no secret that the NFC South is the worst division in football. However, this year, two of the teams in this division have made some serious strides in the postseason.

Both the New Orleans Saints (1-1) and the Carolina Panthers’ (2-0) success this season can be credited to both their quarterbacks seemingly turning a new leaf. Bryce Young is playing like he’s the first overall pick, while Tyler Shough is quickly outplaying his draft position. We’re not saying that the Falcons are better than these teams. In fact, the Panthers dominated the Falcons in Week 2 on both ends of the ball.

What we’re saying, though, is that with Penix as the quarterback, the Falcons have a much better chance of challenging these two teams. The difference between the Falcons that played in Week 2 and in Week 3 is night and day. While Atlanta’s defense got roasted by Young in Week 2, the defense also suffered from the offense’s inability to move the chains. With an offense that won’t give the defense good field position every other drive, Atlanta might be better equipped to stop Young.

At the end of the day, the Falcons’ success in the 2026 season depends on whether Penix can step up in the coming weeks. He’s no Cooper Rush… but Atlanta needs him to be better than what he’s already shown to succeed.

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