Arch Manning’s Week 7 performance could decide his future

At some point, “potential” is supposed to turn into reality. In the world of college football, every player that comes in as a 5-star recruit is supposed to have a ton of potential. Some of them fully realize it, and some of them don’t.

Jeremiah Smith stepped onto campus at Ohio State and was instantly one of the best wide receivers in college football. Meanwhile, Dylan Raiola immediately started at Nebraska as a true freshman, but often struggled and is now relegated to the bench at Oregon. Every now and then, there are some players that are in an eternal “failure to launch” state.

You see flashes of the potential turning into reality, but it hasn’t fully realized itself yet. This is where Arch Manning finds himself. And now that he’s over a season into being a starting college football quarterback, it’s time for Arch to either get better or get benched.

<

Sep 26, 2026; Knoxville, Tennessee, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) passes Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-Imagn Images Credit: USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

The trials and tribulations of Arch Manning’s career have been well-documented. He was a mega-recruit who waited his turn in line behind Quinn Ewers for two seasons, was labeled a “flop” by the New York Times, and earned his first signature win with his 4th-quarter comeback against Ohio State. Then, last week, he regressed with one of his worst games as a starter in a 27-24 loss to Oklahoma.

The frustrating part about Arch is his inconsistency. Every now and then, he will show you why he was the big-time recruit and how talented he is. The 4th quarter against Ohio State, with multiple key 4th-down conversions, is a great example. Against Oklahoma, he threw two perfectly-placed passes to Cam Coleman and Ryan Wingo to help Texas jump out to an early lead.

But he never seems to sustain this level for a whole game. Oklahoma is a perfect example – he threw arguably the worst pass of his career with a ball that overthrew Cam Coleman by about 10 yards, and it led to a pick-six that allowed Oklahoma to take a 24-17 lead in the 4th quarter. Watching him this season, Arch has just never looked fully confident and comfortable at any point. He has made some great throws and had some great moments, but it never looks easy.

His decision-making has also been very puzzling. As a whole, he makes aggressive decisions when he could be conservative, and conservative decisions when he should be aggressive. There are way too many 3rd-and-longs for this Texas offense that end with Arch throwing a route that is well too short of the sticks.

<

Oct 10, 2026; Dallas, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning (16) reacts during the game against the Oklahoma Sooners at the Cotton Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

So, how will Arch respond to adversity? The Oklahoma game also showed us some inconsistency in this regard. After his game-changing pick-six, Arch drove the Longhorns right down the field with a drive that ended with a perfectly timed and placed pass to Jermaine Bishop for a touchdown.

But after that, with a chance to win the game, he blindly threw in the direction of Cam Coleman, and the pass was intercepted, giving Oklahoma the opportunity to kick a game-winning field goal. There is nothing certain about Arch; you never know what you are going to get. What we do know is that this week Texas matches up with Florida. The Florida defense has been thoroughly shredded against SEC opponents, and they are currently giving up 26.2 points per game.

They rank 98th nationally in passing yards allowed per game. This secondary has major concerns, and Brad White is not getting glowing reviews as the new defensive coordinator. This is the perfect bounce-back spot for Arch. If he can’t bounce back this week, against this opponent, it may be time to finally admit that Arch is in the Dylan Raiola category of guys who had major potential but busted.

Texas has another highly-ranked recruit waiting in the wings with Dia Bell. If Arch doesn’t get the job done this week, it may be finally time to punt on Arch and hit the reset button with Dia Bell as the new Texas quarterback.