Power is supposed to buy depth. That is one of the easiest assumptions to make when watching professional tennis. The harder somebody hits, the more penetrating the ball should be. Add enough topspin to keep it inside the court, and the basic formula appears fairly simple.
Then Alex de Minaur turns up and ruins it. Among the ATP Top ten players, de Minaur owns the slowest average rally forehand at 74 mph. He also produces the least topspin at 2,210 rpm. Yet his forehand lands deeper than anybody else’s.
de Minaur’s average rally forehand lands only 3.54 metres short of the opposing baseline. Felix Auger-Aliassime is next at 3.60 metres. Taylor Fritz follows at 3.65. Jannik Sinner, meanwhile, hits the fastest forehand in the group at 82 mph and generates the most spin at 3,177 rpm. His average ball lands 3.96 metres short of the baseline.
de Minaur is hitting eight mph slower, producing 967 fewer rpm and still finding an average of 42 cm more depth. That sounds strange only if you treat speed as the beginning and end of a forehand. It isn’t.
de Minaur Has the Slowest, Yet Deepest, Forehand in the Top 10
The Slowest Forehand Starts From the Most Aggressive Position
The number that begins to explain de Minaur is 0.70. That is how many metres behind the baseline he makes contact with his average rally forehand. Nobody in the Top ten is closer. Auger-Aliassime is next at 0.73 metres. Carlos Alcaraz and Fritz sit at 0.77. At the other extreme, Alexander Zverev averages 1.25 metres behind the baseline and Daniil Medvedev 1.30.
That court position is central to the way de Minaur has deliberately developed his game. He explained earlier this year that his flatter groundstrokes and ability to stay close to the baseline are two ways he tries to take time off opponents. He has increasingly attempted to use his speed offensively, getting into position quickly enough to hold the baseline rather than retreating and relying exclusively on his defensive abilities.
That distinction is important. de Minaur’s speed has traditionally been discussed in terms of retrieval. He runs down another ball, extends another rally and forces an opponent to hit an additional winner. His movement can also work in the opposite direction.
If de Minaur reaches the ball quickly enough to strike from 0.70 metres behind the baseline rather than being pushed a metre and a half backward, he prevents his opponent from gaining as much time between shots. The forehand does not necessarily have to travel at 82 mph to create pressure. It can arrive early instead. That helps explain why comparing de Minaur directly with Sinner through ball speed alone misses so much.
Sinner averages 82 mph and makes contact 1.03 metres behind the baseline. de Minaur averages 74 mph but makes contact 33 cm farther forward, so Sinner is producing much more violent ball speed. de Minaur is using his positioning to compensate for some of what he lacks in raw pace.
The spin numbers also offer a clue. de Minaur’s 2,210 rpm is easily the lowest figure among the ten players. Medvedev is next at 2,453, while everyone else sits much closer to or above 2,800.
Topspin generates downward aerodynamic force on the ball. Broadly speaking, more topspin lets a player swing more aggressively because the rotation helps bring the shot back toward the court. That is one reason Sinner can combine 82 mph with more than 3,100 rpm without constantly sending forehands long. The precise trajectory also depends on launch angle, contact height, and several other variables, so spin cannot be considered independently.
de Minaur is working with a different equation as his ball is slower and considerably flatter. Once it clears the net, less topspin-induced downward force pulls it toward the surface than the heavier forehands produced by Sinner or Alcaraz. That can allow the ball to carry farther through the court, provided the initial trajectory is controlled well enough.
And de Minaur isn’t simply skimming everything centimeters above the tape. His average net clearance is 70 cm. That matches Alcaraz and beats Sinner at 67, Auger-Aliassime at 68, Fritz at 66, Zverev at 69, and Flavio Cobolli at 69.
So this is not merely a player hitting flat bullets over the lowest possible part of the net. de Minaur is giving himself reasonable clearance while still producing the deepest average ball in the group. That is where the shot becomes much more interesting.
Why Depth Does Not Mean What We Think It Does
The differences become even more striking when you compare de Minaur with individual players. Auger-Aliassime averages 81 mph, seven mph faster than de Minaur. He produces 3,048 rpm, more than 800 rpm extra. Their contact positions are almost identical at 0.73 and 0.70 meters behind the baseline.
Yet de Minaur’s average forehand lands six cm deeper. Fritz hits at 80 mph compared with de Minaur’s 74. He contacts the ball only seven cm farther back and sends it lower over the net, 66 cm compared with 70.
de Minaur still lands his forehand 11 cm deeper. Then there is Zverev. Zverev averages 79 mph with 2,960 rpm, both comfortably above de Minaur. His forehand nevertheless lands 4.08 metres short of the baseline compared with de Minaur’s 3.54.
That is a difference of 54 cm. The obvious distinction is where those shots begin. Zverev’s average contact point is 1.25 metres behind the baseline. de Minaur’s is 0.70. But those figures are not enough to explain every centimetre of the resulting trajectories. The available dataset does not tell us contact height, exact launch angle, whether the shot was crosscourt or down the line, the speed of the incoming ball, or the tactical circumstances surrounding every forehand.
They do tell us that depth is not simply a reward for hitting harder. Depth itself shouldn’t automatically be interpreted as proof that one forehand is better than another. A heavy Sinner forehand landing almost four metres short of the baseline may still be a far more damaging shot than a slower ball landing closer to the line. His combination of pace and rotation can produce a completely different bounce and force a very different response.
The value of the de Minaur numbers is not that they secretly prove he owns the best forehand in the Top ten. They show he has built an effective forehand without the raw characteristics usually associated with an elite weapon.
For years, the Australian’s forehand was considered the side opponents could attack. That perception has gradually changed. When de Minaur first broke into the Top ten in 2024, Zverev specifically noted how much more dangerous the forehand had become and how readily de Minaur was taking it early and changing direction. His long-time coach, Adolfo Gutierrez, has similarly explained that much of their work in recent seasons has centered on becoming more aggressive and trying to dominate rallies rather than merely survive them.
The current numbers fit that evolution remarkably well. de Minaur has not transformed himself into Sinner. He has not suddenly found an 85 mph forehand or started producing enormous topspin. He has found a way to make his own physical characteristics work harder.
His speed gets him into position. His court position allows him to take time away. His relatively flat trajectory helps the ball travel through the court. The result is a forehand that looks relatively modest when reduced to the two numbers most often shown on television and considerably more impressive once you consider the entire shot.
The Last Word
If a broadcast graphic appeared tomorrow showing the average forehand speeds of the ATP Top Ten, Alex de Minaur would be at the bottom. If another appeared showing topspin, he would be at the bottom again. Anyone seeing only those two numbers could reasonably conclude that his forehand lacked penetration compared with the biggest hitters in the game.
Then comes the important number. 3.54 metres. Nobody in this group lands the average rally forehand closer to the opposing baseline. The reason isn’t some hidden reservoir of power the speed gun missed. It is the interaction between several different parts of the shot.
de Minaur contacts the ball closer to the baseline than anyone else measured. He hits relatively flat. He gives himself a reasonable 70 cm of net clearance and produces a trajectory that continues traveling deep into the opposite court.
That is also a useful reminder of what tennis statistics can and cannot tell us. Ball speed measures ball speed. Spin measures spin. Neither measures a forehand. A forehand is the entire journey from contact to bounce, and de Minaur’s is perhaps the clearest example in the Top ten of why every stage matters. The slowest forehand in the group ends up traveling deepest.
Once you include the rest of the numbers, it stops looking like a contradiction. It starts looking like the whole point of his game.
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey – Imagn Images
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