Aaron Judge's wild-card absence offers a glimpse of a rapidly approaching Yankees future

The New York Yankees are locked in.

Their doubleheader split with the Tampa Bay Rays on Tuesday ensured that the Bombers will enter the postseason as the top wild card in the American League. (The Rays clinched the AL East and the No. 1 seed). That means, barring a major surprise over the next few days, New York is set to host its forever-rivals, the Boston Red Sox, in a best-of-three series starting Tuesday in the Bronx.

But while the schedule and the opponent offer a dose of certainty, there’s one enormous unknown swirling around YankeeLand: the health of three-time MVP Aaron Judge.

It has been an injury-riddled season for the Yankees’ captain, who missed more than three months due to a stress fracture on his first rib. He returned Sept. 8 and appeared in seven games, tallying four hits and one homer, before landing back on the shelf due to a calf strain suffered Sept. 16. Predictably, the Yankees have been quite mum about Judge’s status. Skipper Aaron Boone first declined to disclose the severity of the strain but eventually described it as “moderate.” Judge has not spoken publicly since the calf situation flared up and he was removed midgame. 

But before Tuesday’s doubleheader, Boone told reporters that Judge won’t return during the regular season and that the Yankees are “planning on him not being a part” of the team’s wild-card exploits. While that doesn’t entirely close the door on a heroic comeback from the goliath slugger, all signs point toward Judge taking in October’s opening act from the dugout.

In the event that he does return next week, it’s difficult to envision Judge doing so at full strength. Notably, the calf issue is on his right leg — his rear or plant leg. Judge’s swing mechanics are particularly reliant on his having explosiveness and stability in his right hip and right leg. Without that, he could be a shell of his best self. Still, players are famously more willing to use certain medications and numbing agents in the postseason, things that could help push Judge onto the roster.

His not being able to play in the outfield is another consideration. Even after the lengthy layoff, Judge slotted immediately back into right field, in part because the Yankees’ roster is overloaded with designated hitter types. A more cautious course of action might’ve saved Judge’s calf from giving out, though it’s impossible to know for sure.

But now, given the glut of DHs on New York‘s roster, it’s hard to imagine a super-reduced version of Judge being the optimal choice in the lineup over Ben Rice or Paul Goldschmidt. As such, how Boone slots Judge back into the mix if the Yankees journey deep into the playoffs will be one of the more fascinating storylines to follow.

Until then, the Yanks will need to soldier on, a man — one very large man — down.

This era of Yankees baseball has simultaneously been shaped by Judge and shaped around him. Critics have argued the current roster is overly dependent on the future Hall of Famer — a ridiculous proposition. Wouldn’t anyone build a team around one of the world’s best hitters? Still, entering October without a world-beating Judge is a bizarre new reality and, at the same time, one the Yankees, given Judge’s age, might need to acquaint themselves with.

New York has not played a postseason contest without Judge since the 2015 winner-take-all wild-card game. A 40-year-old Alex Rodriguez hit fourth for the Yanks that day. Dallas Keuchel threw six shutout innings for a plucky, likable Houston Astros team yet to villainize themselves in the baseball world. Colby Rasmus and Carlos Gómez each ripped solo homers in Houston’s victory. Since then, Judge has appeared in all 65 of New York’s playoff games, the most over that span by a non-Dodger or non-Astro.

Of course, Judge’s physical woes this season do not necessarily portend the beginning of the end. Playing through pain and in a small sample, the 6-foot-7 Californian still posted an impressive .871 OPS. He was, less than a year ago, the American League MVP. He surely has more magical moments to conjure, more souvenirs to crank into the seats. And yet, the clock is undeniably ticking. Father Time, you see, has never been defeated. 

The Yankees’ captain will turn 35 in April. There have been only 22 individual MLB seasons since integration (1947) in which a qualified player 35 or older finished with an OPS over 1.000. Seven of those years — five from Barry Bonds, one from Mark McGwire and one from Manny Ramírez — were likely aided by performance enhancers. The list, understandably, grows only smaller as the age ticks closer to 40. It’s hard to be elite; it’s even harder as your body decays.

Judge could certainly ward off Father Time and his sinister ways and remain otherworldly for a few more years. Ted Williams did it. So did Henry Aaron and Chipper Jones and David Ortiz. Some folks age like fine wine. Judge is disciplined, driven and athletic enough to make it work. Modern medical and training technology make it easier for the best to stay healthy for longer. Nobody would be shocked if Judge has another MVP season in him.

But the opposite is also true. Even if his production doesn’t tumble off a cliff, there’s reason to be wary about the future. Judge cannot carry this franchise around on his broad shoulders forever. Eventually, the Yankees will need to pivot, grow, change, chart a new course. And given the club’s institutional smarts and financial might, chances are they’ll find another aircraft carrier on which to center the franchise.

Besides, the Yankees’ pitching-driven success this year is a reminder that such a path is possible, even fruitful. The 2026 New York Yankees have won a lot of games without Judge. They might need to continue doing so in October.