5 College Football Teams That Will Surprise

They’re the teams you’re not paying attention to on the schedule.

Either they don’t have the big name, or they struggled last year and are forgotten, or they’re the ones everyone looks past with Ohio State or Alabama or Notre Dame coming up. They’re the surprise teams of 2026, and here’s our annual call on who they’ll be.

How did we do last year? Not great compared to 2024, when we nailed it cold at an all-time nuclear level with Indiana as our No. 1, along with an Arizona State team that won the Big 12 and went to the College Football Playoff.

Last year our No. 1 was Rutgers (nope), then Southern Miss (sort of, 7-6), Mississippi State (no, but it was competitive), Cincinnati (yeah, over the first half, very no over the second), and Wake Forest (boom – 9-4).

26 for ’26, No. 7: College Football Teams That Will Surprise

26: Winningest Programs Yet To Make the CFP
25: ACC Key Questions
24: Big 12 Key Questions
23: Big Ten Key Questions
22: Top 2027 NFL Draft Prospects
21: SEC Key Questions
20: What’s Next in Realignment?
19. Ranking all 30 New Head Coaches
18. Who Has the Easiest Schedules?
17. Who Has the Hardest Schedules?
16. Who Might Be the Next Indiana?
15. Group of Six Teams with Best CFP Shot
14. 5 Teams Due For a Letdown
13. 5 Programs Under the Most Pressure
12. 26 Bold Predictions
11. 5 Teams We’re Disrespecting
10. 5 Hottest Head Coaching Prospects
9. Biggest Games of the Season
8. Coaches On Hot Seat

5. East Carolina

How good was East Carolina last year? Great. The program has been solid over the last few years, closing with a strong performance in a 23-17 win over Pitt in the Military Bowl.

Why will it be a surprise team? Because no one was paying attention to the Pirates last year. They won eight games in 2024 and were deep in the hunt for the American title in 2025, closing 6-1.

Realistic projection: East Carolina was seriously in the mix for a College Football Playoff spot last year, and there’s no reason why it can’t be in the American championship hunt again. There’s no Navy, North Texas, Tulane, or UTSA on a schedule that’s built for another nine-win run.
– East Carolina 2026 Team Preview

4. South Carolina

How good was South Carolina last year? Blah. Expected to be a major player coming off a strong 2024, the Gamecocks couldn’t get the offense going, went 4-8, and didn’t beat a team that finished with a winning record.

Why will it be a surprise team? Last season never got going. The flat offense will be far better, starting with getting star quarterback LaNorris Sellers back. No, this might not be a College Football Playoff team, but it has the look to be far more like the 2024 version.

Realistic projection: South Carolina will get back to winning at least eight games. It’ll beat Kent State and Towson to get off to a hot start, and then comes a nice stretch with three SEC games in the next four against teams that finished with a losing record. It won’t be easy, but expect the Gamecocks to win the games that last year’s version didn’t.
– South Carolina 2026 Team Preview

3. Kansas State

How good was Kansas State last year? Not bad, but it lost its mojo right away in a late collapse against Iowa State in Ireland. There were some nice moments, but it became a grind to get to six wins, helped by playing Kansas, Oklahoma State, and Colorado in the back stretch.

Why will it be a surprise team? The 2025 Wildcats lost to Utah by four, Baylor by one, Arizona by six, Army by three, and Iowa State by three. All they need is a little spark and some positive momentum, and that 6-6 run of last year could quickly turn into 9-3.

Realistic projection: Collin Klein should be that spark. Kansas State returns enough talent to be strong, the transfer portal helped, and the schedule is a dream with no Texas Tech, BYU, or Utah.
– Kansas State 2026 Team Preview

2. UCLA

How good was UCLA last year? It was an entertaining failure. UCLA went 3-9, but it all but ended the James Franklin era at Penn State with a wild win. It was fun for a while, and then the road games at Indiana, Ohio State, and USC happened, along with a blowout against Washington.

Why will it be a surprise team? In comes Bob Chesney. A terrific coach who knows how to win, he took James Madison to the College Football Playoff, brought in a slew of stars from that team to go along with a good base of Big Ten talents, and …

Realistic projection: Do I really believe in my own hoo-ha or not? Ever since the Chesney hire, I’ve been preaching loud and long that UCLA was doing the smart thing by copying what Indiana did by hiring former JMU head man Curt Cignetti.

Purdue, at Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State – four of the first five Big Ten games are against teams that didn’t go bowling. There’s a date with Nevada, a winnable home game against San Diego State, and a 50/50 game against Cal to open things up.
– UCLA 2026 Team Preview

1. Florida

How good was Florida last year? It was better than the 4-8 record. Good enough to take out Texas and push Georgia in a fantastic battle, it failed to show up offensively in too many blowout losses. The Gators went 0-7 when scoring 20 points or fewer.

Why will it be a surprise team? The fundamentals are strong. This needs more of a tweak than an overhaul, and that’s where new head coach Jon Sumrall comes in. He did a great job in the transfer portal, has brought the new coach energy, and … there’s no Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, or Texas A&M on the schedule.

Realistic projection: Florida hasn’t won eight regular season games since 2020. Sumrall has never won fewer than eight in a regular season in his first four years as a head coach.

No, the team isn’t quite there yet to be a dark horse contender to get into the College Football Playoff, but it’ll start hot, end hot, and be warm enough in the middle to suggest that the program is on the right track.
– Florida 2026 Team Preview