3 key takeaways from Bill Gates’ stark warning about AI and jobs

Bill Gates has warned that the world needs to do more to prepare for a “turbulent AI era” before workers are “displaced or underemployed.” In a nearly 5,900-word essay published on Wednesday, the Microsoft cofounder said that AI and robotics will eventually reach beyond the white-collar jobs already under pressure from the technology. “In terms of equity, AI will either be the greatest equalizer ever invented, or the worst source of injustice,” Gates wrote. “The challenge is monumental.” He said policymakers should consider protecting certain jobs for humans and taxing automation to help fund retraining and a stronger safety net.

Here are three takeaways from Gates’ essay warning about AI and jobs.

So far, most of the job fallout from AI has centered on white-collar work.

Gates said blue-collar workers will eventually be affected too as robots become cheaper and more capable. “Many Americans I talk to don’t realize how fast dexterous robots are advancing,” he wrote.

He said “smart” robots could start competing with people on some physical tasks in construction and hospitality “by the end of the decade.” Gates said that, as AI and robots improve, society may decide to set aside some work for people only, an idea he calls “Human Reserved.” He gave the example of receiving an incurable disease diagnosis from a robot. “There’s no technical reason why it couldn’t,” he wrote. “Yet it shouldn’t.” He said fields such as education and mental health care could become a mix of humans and AI, with people remaining in charge.

Gates also said that governments should tax AI tokens — the units into which AI models divide and process text and other data — and robots to slow the push to replace workers and to raise money for the transition. “I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots,” he wrote.

He said the current tax system nudges companies toward replacing workers with machines because employers pay payroll taxes when they hire people, while robots can generally be written off as a business expense. “Waiting until people are already displaced or underemployed will be too late,” he wrote.