2027: Danbature, analysts clash over Peter Obi’s chances in Northern Nigeria

The chances of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential candidate, Peter Obi, of securing significant support in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election have triggered a fresh debate following comments by Amb. Abdul Danbature, National President of the Arewa Youth Assembly for Good Leadership.

Danbature last week said Obi could not become Nigeria’s president without the backing of Northern youth, accusing him of failing to consult them before announcing his presidential ambition.

He further claimed that Northern Nigeria would support a candidate who had supported former President Muhammadu Buhari.

This has drawn reactions from political analysts and supporters of the Obi-Kwankwaso movement, who questioned Danbature’s mandate to speak for Northern youth and challenged his assessment of Obi’s chances in the region.

2027: Obi remains competitive in Northern Nigeria – political analyst

Political analyst Abba Gwale has said former Anambra State governor and the Nigeria Democratic Congress presidential candidate (NDC), Peter Obi, can still remain competitive in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

Gwale said although the North remains critical to winning a presidential election in Nigeria, Obi could still attract a significant number of votes from the region if his campaign builds on the support he received in 2023.

He made the remarks in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST while reacting to the growing debate over Obi’s chances in Northern Nigeria ahead of the 2027 election.

According to him, Northern votes are crucial in presidential elections, making it difficult for any candidate to win the presidency without securing significant support from the region.

“It is crystal clear that Northern votes are crucial in Nigerian presidential elections. In fact, it is extremely difficult for any presidential candidate to win the presidency without significant support from the North,” Gwale said.

He noted that the importance of the region explains why presidential contenders usually make efforts to win the support of Northern voters.

“That is why every serious contender is investing heavily in winning over Northern voters,” he added.

However, Gwale said Obi’s situation in the North is more complicated.

He noted that Obi’s performance in the 2023 election showed that he already had a base of support in some parts of the region.

He said Obi won a significant portion of the Northern Christian vote in 2023, particularly among young voters.

“Looking back at the 2023 presidential election, he secured the majority of Northern Christian votes, particularly among young people,” the analyst said.

Gwale, however, cautioned that the political situation ahead of 2027 could be different from what obtained in 2023.

He said Obi could still attract a significant portion of those voters, partly because of religious and demographic factors, although changing political circumstances could affect the voting pattern.

“Although the political landscape ahead of the next election may be different due to changing circumstances, he could still attract a significant portion of those votes, partly because of religious and demographic factors,” he said.

The analyst also identified the choice of a running mate as another factor that could influence Obi’s chances in the North.

“Another factor that could strengthen his appeal in the North is the choice of his running mate,” Gwale said.

According to him, Kwankwaso’s political influence in Kano and parts of Jigawa, Kaduna and Katsina could boost the chances of an Obi-Kwankwaso ticket.

“With Rabiu Kwankwaso as his vice-presidential candidate, his political influence, especially in Kano and parts of Jigawa, Kaduna and Katsina, could boost the ticket’s prospects,” he said.

Gwale, however, warned that Kwankwaso’s support base may not automatically transfer its votes to Obi.

He said the former Kano State governor has a loyal following, but the extent to which his supporters would support Obi would depend on the campaign and the choices voters make during the election.

“Kwankwaso commands a loyal support base, although the extent to which those supporters would automatically transfer their votes to Obi is uncertain and would depend on campaign dynamics and voter preferences,” he said.

The analyst also pointed to the activities of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which he said had been making efforts to persuade opposition governors to defect.

He noted that many of the governors involved are from Northern states, describing the development as another indication of the importance of the region in the 2027 presidential contest.

“Meanwhile, the ruling party has been actively persuading opposition governors to defect, with many of those governors coming from Northern states. This reflects the strategic importance of the North in determining the outcome of presidential elections,” Gwale said.

He, however, maintained that Obi should not be written off in the North.

According to him, his chances would depend largely on how effectively his campaign adapts to the political realities of the next election.

“Ultimately, Peter Obi could remain competitive in parts of the North if his campaign team builds on the strategies that resonated with voters in 2023 while adapting to the realities of the next election,” he said.

2027: Arewa youth leader’s statement senseless, irrational – Jabir

The Coordinator of the FCT Obi-Kwankwaso (OK) Movement, Mallam Jabir, has described a statement by an Arewa youth leader on the 2027 presidential election as senseless and irrational.

Jabir said the claim that Northern youth would not support Peter Obi because he did not consult them before declaring his presidential ambition was nothing more than a political statement aimed at attracting attention ahead of the election.

According to Jabir, such groups and individuals are rarely heard from outside election periods.

He described some of them as unregistered associations that emerge when politicians are looking for relevance.

“First of all, I would like to say that that statement is nothing but a usual political statement by jobless young people,” Jabir said.

“If you notice, you hardly hear anything about such kind of organisations or such kind of persons when it’s not an election time. You only get to know such kind of people and associations, fake associations, unregistered associations, when it is election time, looking for relevance and looking for how to deceive people,” he said.

Jabir accused such groups of using religion and ethnicity as political tools to influence voters and divide Nigerians.

He said politicians often use such narratives to create divisions among Nigerians in order to protect their political interests.

“Politics of religion, politics of ethnicity and all these things are nothing but political tools used by politicians to divide Nigerians so that they can remain in power or in position,” he said.

The coordinator said he did not believe the statement should be taken seriously, describing it as senseless and irrational.

“To me, I don’t think what he said is something that people should even take seriously because, to me, that is a very senseless and irrational statement,” he said.

He said Nigerians should be cautious about political statements that attempt to speak for entire ethnic, regional or religious groups, particularly as the 2027 election approaches.

No one can speak for Northern youth ahead of 2027 – Kwankwasiyya spokesman

The spokesperson of the Kwankwasiyya Movement, Habeeb Mohammed Saleh, has said no individual or group can legitimately speak on behalf of all Northern youth ahead of the 2027 general election.

Saleh described the recent claim by an Arewa youth leader that Northern youth would not support Peter Obi as president as an attempt to create a narrative without a clear mandate from the people of the region.

He stated this in an exclusive interview with DAILY POST on Saturday.

According to him, the first issue that should be examined is the legitimacy of the person making such a claim and the mandate under which he is speaking.

“I think we have to start by interrogating the legitimacy and the mandate on which the particular person is talking about,” Saleh said.

He argued that there is no recognised structure that unanimously represents all Northern youth; therefore, no individual has the authority to declare how the region’s youth will vote in 2027.

“We don’t know of any structure that represents unanimously, the Northern youth. Neither do we have somebody legitimately placed in any place or in any capacity to speak about what the Northern youths are actually going to do,” he said.

Saleh described the claim as insulting and accused those making such statements of trying to attract attention, possibly for personal or political reasons.

“To me, such a call, such a shout, is insulting and it’s just an attempt to draw attention, maybe for personal gain or for whatever reason,” he said.

He said Northern youth have moved beyond the era of blindly following political leaders without questioning the consequences of their choices.

According to him, young people in the region are now more concerned about issues affecting their daily lives, including insecurity, hunger and hardship.

“I believe the Northern youths have passed such a time when they fold their arms, close their eyes and just follow a certain footstep that may end up leading them to more darkness, more insecurity, more hunger and more problems in the North,” he said.

Saleh also questioned the basis for claiming that Northern youth would reject Peter Obi, pointing to Obi’s performance in the North during the 2023 presidential election.

He said Obi secured more than two million votes in the North despite not having the backing of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso or the Kwankwasiyya Movement at the time.

“For him to say so, where was he when Peter Obi garnered more than two million votes in the North at that particular time, even when he wasn’t enjoying the backing of Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and even the Kwankwasiyya Movement?” Saleh asked.

He also questioned the support that many Nigerians, particularly in the North, gave to President Bola Tinubu during the 2023 election.

Saleh said some people had high hopes that Tinubu’s administration would improve their lives but later became disappointed with the government’s performance.

“Where was he when people had this hope and belief that Tinubu can do something, and they ended up discovering that he’s putting them deeper into misery?” he asked.

The Kwankwasiyya spokesman said political actors should not sit somewhere and create narratives while claiming to have a mandate to speak for millions of Northern youth.

“I think that has passed that time and is insulting to the generality of the Northern youth and even the generality of the renewed hopelessness that Nigerians have found themselves,” he said.

On the claim that Northern youth would only support candidates who supported former President Muhammadu Buhari, Saleh questioned the basis for such a position.

He also questioned the political contribution of those invoking Buhari’s name and their connection to the administration’s record.

“As to your second question, whether they will not support people that do not support Buhari, that will also continue to tell you about the kind of thought he has,” he said.

Saleh questioned the role the people making such claims played in bringing about what he described as one of the most clueless governments Nigeria has experienced in a long time.

“I don’t even know what legitimacy he is trying to drive from that. What role has he played, or any of his kind played, that brought about one of the most clueless governance that we have seen in a long while?” he asked.

He further said political statements should be examined carefully to understand the interests behind them.

“I don’t know when people begin to shout, you begin to scan and discover the real reason behind what they did,” he said.

Saleh maintained that no individual can speak for all Northern voters ahead of the 2027 election, saying the realities confronting the people would ultimately influence their choices.

“And I don’t think anybody can speak for the Northern voters this time around. I believe the reality before us will lead the way,” he said.

According to him, issues such as insecurity, hunger and what he described as the failure of the “Renewed Hope” promise would be more important to voters than political claims.

“The reality of the insecurity we have, the reality of the hunger, the reality of deceptions bundled and packaged as a renewed hope,” he said.

Saleh also questioned the extent to which former President Buhari’s record could influence Northern voters in 2027.

He said many people in the North may not want to associate themselves with the achievements of the former president, pointing to the hardship experienced by people during his administration.

“I don’t think anybody can speak for the Northern voters this time around. And I believe the reality before us will lead the way,” he reiterated.

He cited Daura, Buhari’s hometown, as an example, alleging that people there also suffered during the former president’s administration.

“Where we have even a graveyard named specifically for the people that were killed by that regime because they simply struggled to bring in rice or to survive,” Saleh said.

He also criticised the legacy of the former administration in Kano, arguing that many people in the state had little to remember positively from Buhari’s time in office.

“People from Kano hardly have any single thing to remember with much more than the prison he has built in Kano,” he said.

He added that there were similar grievances in other parts of Northern Nigeria.

Saleh, therefore, warned that attempts to use Buhari’s name to influence Northern voters could ultimately fail.

“Whatever his own motive behind drawing the name of the late President into this argument will end up backfiring because there’s not much that it can actually attract,” he said.