In case you’ve forgotten — and with the incredible amount of hype and media attention surrounding it, that’s unlikely — Texas QB Arch Manning was the Heisman trophy favorite heading into last season. A rough debut (17-of-30 passing, 170 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) in a 14-7 loss to Ohio State caused his odds to plummet and he was never a serious contender for the award after that.
But Manning played much better down the stretch last season, leading Texas to wins in seven of its final eight games (including a 41-27 victory in the Cheez-It Citrus Bowl over Michigan) and throwing for 14 TDs and only two INTs.
Manning opened this season with the second-best odds (+800) to win the Heisman and is either a co-favorite or second choice at sportsbooks with Notre Dame QB CJ Carr (+750) as the favorite. Carr’s Fighting Irish have the second-best national title odds at +650 and are the only college football team with an over/under of 11.5, so they are expected to cruise into the playoff and have a real shot at a national championship.
It’s Manning, though, who has generated the most bets and most dollars wagered at several sportsbooks this offseason — and represents the worst-case scenario in the Heisman market at many of them.
“Manning is leading in ticket count and money, with 17% of the total pool,” Joey Feazel, head college football oddsmaker at Caesars Sportsbook told Yahoo Sports. “Arch is our worst-case scenario. Carr is second in tickets and money.”
Depending on the sportsbook, some combination of Oregon’s Dante Moore (11-1), Miami’s Darian Mensah (+1150), Ohio State’s Julian Sayin (12-1), Ole Miss’ Trinidad Chambliss (13-1) and Indiana’s Josh Hoover (13-1) — all QBs — have the next-best odds to win the award.
Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiyah Smith (14-1) has the best odds for any non-quarterback to win the award. Quarterbacks have won 8 of the past 10 Heisman trophies.
One player generating some liability at sportsbooks? None other than Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who opened at 80-1 and is down to 65-1 at several sportsbooks. JKS represented the second-biggest liability to win the Heisman at multiple books that Yahoo Sports spoke with last week.
Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza won the 2025 Heisman after coming into the season with 55-1 odds.
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