There’s been lots of chatter about East Lake Golf Club in lead up to the Tour Championship — set to crown the 2026 FedExCup champion, as well as possibly give a definitive claimant to the slippery Player of the Year debate.
As a match-play model on a rotating course is rolling forward in 2028, none of that helps us settle on a possible winner among what will be the Tour’s top 30 players in two weeks.
Tommy Fleetwood enters looking to repeat after his much-celebrated first victory in Atlanta a year ago. Let’s take a look at how oddsmakers compare him against Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, whom they’ve given the advantage to every time the world’s top-two ranked players have shared a course this year.
FedExCup 2026 list of favorites (courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 12)
Scottie Scheffler is the favorite to win the PGA Tour’s annual stop at TPC Southwind in Memphis. The playoff opener starts with the top 70 in the FedExCup standings, with the top 50 moving on to the BMW Championship in St. Louis next week.
Tour Championship winner prediction
First knee-jerk reaction is that this is the first time all year that 15 names have been listed at +3100 or less entering a tournament. There’s obvious reasons for this but nonetheless the long and short of it is: The value at East Lake is limited.
With that word of caution out of the way, let’s get into the winner’s circle where we’re giving out Matt Fitzpatrick at +1600. Eight T-10 finishes, three wins — there’s nothing the Englishman hasn’t been able to do in a dominant 2026 campaign.
He’s wearing a bit of a stink after a MC at Royal Birkdale, and that’s exactly why we are zeroing in on him at East Lake where he will be able to put on a show with his top-ranked approach game. Moreover, we’re not worried if he’ll be playing in the tournament — granted all 15 names above are locks to make it to Georgia.
Tour Championship best bet: Top 5 and Top 10 finishes
Thankfully our friends at DraftKings are not just offering a limited menu: They want us to wager on this early. If they didn’t why else would there be Top 5/10/20 props available? Exactly, it’s there for our mutual delight and entertainment.
In the top 5 market, we don’t hate the individual value of Scottie Scheffler at -134. He’s been a runner-up machine in 2026, and at the very worst playoff fate we see for him is going against Fitzpatrick in a repeat of what happened at RBC Heritage in April.
OK, so that one comes with a negative sign in front of it and therefore is definitively not fun. Two more picks that have value: Russell Henley to finish top 5 at +440 and Ryan Fox to finish at top 10 at +490.
Henley is just such a good iron player to ignore at a number like that and we just see a great month for him ahead. It’s worth noting the price tag is as such because ties are not included.
On the Fox side, the reigning Open champ has finally come down from the claret jug hangover of a lifetime and brings a game that lends itself much more to being dominant off the tee. Gives us a little variety — and a pair of 2026 winners, with welcome figures.
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Whether you’re watching on TV or streaming, here’s everything you need to see every minute of the FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, Tennessee, this week.
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