2026 Big Ten Football Over/Under Picks

The best conference in college football is back for another run at the sport’s ultimate crown. While the copium crisis continues to run rampant in SEC country, the Big Ten is focused on securing its fourth straight national championship, preferably with a team that hasn’t won one of the previous three. Cough, Oregon. However, this is a conference that never plays by the book.

Three years ago, Michigan won the title despite not having Jim Harbaugh on the sidelines for six games and the shadow of Connor Stalions hanging over the program. In 2024, Ohio State was left for dead after Michigan hung a W and planted their flag in Columbus, only for the Buckeyes to rally and go scorched-Earth in the College Football Playoff. And last year, Indiana — widely regarded as one of the best teams of the century — was ranked 20th in the preseason and didn’t crack the top-10 until Week 5. 

There will be ups, downs, highs, lows, overs and unders this season. Let’s see if we can predict a few before Week 0 kicks off this weekend.

Head coach Bret Bielema has Illinois rolling! The Illini are coming off the winningest two-year stretch in program history, winners of 19 games, more than the program accomplished in five years under Lovie Smith. Now, Bielema must reset with only seven returning starters and a new quarterback in East Carolina transfer Katin Houser.

The schedule is average per Big Ten standards, with a road game at Ohio State and a home game against Oregon, but Illinois does avoid Indiana, USC and Michigan. There are several coin-flip games down the stretch — at Maryland, Nebraska, at UCLA, Iowa, at Northwestern — which, in recent years, Illinois would likely emerge 4-1 at the worst. But with only one returning starter across both lines of scrimmage and a new defensive coordinator implementing a 3-3-5, there is too much uncertainty to feel confident in seven wins.

Prediction: Under

Curt Cignetti is 27-2 since taking over in Bloomington and has never lost to a team that didn’t play in the National Championship. Indiana plays Ohio State and Michigan back-to-back and balances out that burden by playing a non-conference slate that rivals Notre Dame’s entire schedule.

There are question marks across the offense with TCU transfer quarterback Josh Hoover attempting to fill the shoes of Fernando Mendoza, but alas, this is a program that scored 40 points a game with Kurtis Rourke calling the shots; the offense will figure it out. Defensively, Bryant Haines might be leading a group even better than last year. It’s only Year 3, but bet against Cignetti at your own risk. “Google” him.

Prediction: Over

Iowa hasn’t won less than eight games since 2014. Quarterback Jeremy Hecklinski inspires as much confidence as Sydney Sweeney playing the lead in a Ruth Bader Ginsburg biopic, but is any team better equipped to overcome poor quarterback play than Iowa? Even if this team is 3-3 to start the year, it’s still a Kirk Ferentz-led team; it’s still a Phil Parker-coordinated defense; it’s still the best offensive line in the country.

This team will simultaneously underachieve, overachieve and punt its way to eight wins. Again.

Prediction: Over

Maryland is checks notes loaded with talent and experience. The Terps return 71 percent of their 2025 statistical production (second in the country), including 14 starters and quarterback Malik Washington. To help ease the pressure on the rising sophomore quarterback, new offensive coordinator Clint Trickett will seek to resuscitate a run game that was the second-worst in the Big Ten in 2025.

Defensively, the fall camp injury to defensive end Zahir Mathis, to put it eloquently, sucks, and only adds to the expectation of five-star recruit Zion Elee as a freshman. But even without Mathis, this is the most talented team Mike Locksley has ever had in College Park and the win total comes down to belief or lack thereof in the man in charge. I am the latter.

Prediction: Under

This is the second-hardest schedule in the country. Michigan plays Oklahoma, Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State, with the latter two on the road. I understand the skepticism facing this program, but this team won nine games last year with a distracted head coach and a young, inexperienced quarterback irresponsibly being left to develop himself.

Enter: A head coach (Kyle Whittingham) with a two-decade resume of maximizing talent; an offensive coordinator (Jason Beck) who took Utah from 98th in rushing to second and the overall offense from 115th to fourth nationally in ONE year; a defensive coordinator (Jay Hill) with a proven track record of revivals and an All-American defensive end (John Henry Daley) who elevates the entire unit.

This offense is going to Run. The. Damn. Ball. and cause chaos on defense. Even if the win total stagnates from last season, this team is going to be vastly improved on the field.

Prediction: Over

After four years away from the sidelines, Pat Fitzgerald takes over as head coach and savior in East Lansing. Once viewed as a sure thing, Fitz must prove himself after only winning four total games during his final two years at Northwestern. Before him is one of the worst rosters in the Power 4, and only two (three if you want to include quarterback Alessio Milivojevic) returning starters on either side of the ball. There are more questions than wins with this much uncertainty.

Prediction: Under

The middle class of the Big Ten is a complete wild card with swing game after swing game. These next three teams are at the mercy of the scheduling gods and health.

P.J. Fleck has built Minnesota into a consistent winner with talent on both sides of the ball. Quarterback Drake Lindsey took strides down the stretch last year and will be expected to continue building on that momentum. If running back Darius Taylor can stay healthy — it’s been reported he’s taken Pilates and hired a chef, which somehow makes me feel worse — it should help improve their No. 116 yards per rush ranking.

Defensively, the triumvirate of end Anthony Smith (2025 Big Ten leader in sacks), linebacker Maverick Baranowski (103 tackles last year), and cornerback John Nestor (2025 Big Ten leader in interceptions) forms one of the best trios in the country. But the glue guys across the rest of the defense leave a lot to be desired. Perhaps my least confident pick.

Prediction: Under

Nebraska impressively won seven games last year despite being atrocious against the run (98th) and losing Dylan Raiola for the final three games of the season. The Cornhuskers bring back 11 starters and add Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year Anthony Colandrea at quarterback. On defense, Rob Aurich will shift the scheme from 3-3-5 to 4-2-5, one year after leading San Diego State’s unit to a top-12 finish. Balancing these positives is a brutal schedule with games against Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon, and a season finale at Kinnick. 

Head coach Matt Rhule has spared Husker Nation and not recorded a podcast in eight months. If he gets back on the mic with more “unfiltered,” “non-PC” opinions, go under. But for now, even with that schedule, there is reason to be optimistic in Lincoln.

Prediction: Over

Someone in the Big Ten offices hates Northwestern. Not only do the Wildcats play Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, they play all three on the road.

Head coach David Braun has been nothing short of exceptional after inheriting a mess in the wake of Fitzgerald’s dismissal. Now, Braun has brought in Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator and Michigan State transfer Aidan Chiles at quarterback. Chiles was a disappointment in East Lansing, but he only has to be better than the Big Ten leader in picks (Preston Stone), while frequently handing the ball off to Caleb Komolafe.

Safety Robert Fitzgerald is one of the most underrated players in the country and leads a defense built on solid, competent players up and down the roster. Braun is 19-19 since taking over in Evanston and the bet is on him to continue this trend.

Prediction: Over

Lord, give me strength as I defend Ohio State.

Even with the hardest schedule in the country and the task of replacing nine starters on defense, this over/under is a little insulting. Ohio State has not won less than 10 games in a regular season since 2011, excluding 2020, and Ryan Day has never lost more than two games in a season, including bowl games, since taking over in 2019.

The offense will be one of the most explosive in the country and will be able to outscore opponents even if the defense predictably takes a step back. Big game questions remain down the stretch, but Day has only lost five conference games in seven years. If Ohio State escapes Austin in Week 2, this over is a lock.

Prediction: Over

Oregon feels like the trendy pick to win the national title with 15 returning starters and Heisman frontrunner Dante Moore back to sling the pill. There is a question mark at left tackle, defensive line depth could be a concern late in the season, and replacing two coordinators is no small feat. But given Dan Lanning’s impressive regular-season resume — and the unlikelihood of the Ducks dropping back-to-back games against their toughest opponents, Ohio State and Michigan — Oregon feels like a safe bet to return to Indy.

Prediction: Over

Whoever hates Northwestern in Chicago loves Penn State. The Nittany Lions avoid Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State, and play two of their four road games at Northwestern and Maryland. The Matt Campbell era will be ushered in on a red carpet led by Rocco Becht, the most experienced quarterback in the country, and a defense called by D’Anton Lynn, who comes over from USC to coach at his alma mater.

Everything is lining up for the Iowa State of the East. But being the same Cyclones just in blue uniforms, can this roster compete with USC, Michigan and Washington on the road? Recent action moved the win total up a game, and that’s just one win too far.

Prediction: Under

Oh boy, the Barry Odom era is off to a rough start. On a select few positive notes, quarterback Ryan Browne returns, who is serviceable, and this team lost one-possession games to Minnesota, Rutgers and Michigan last year, while playing USC tight. Coming back to reality, this roster is largely devoid of any major talent; there are myriad concerns at no fewer than 10 positions, and the Boilermakers have not won a conference game since 2023. The schedule is far from easy and unless Purdue can play itself, the Big Ten drought is likely to continue.

Prediction: Under

The Scarlet Knights have two of the best skill position players in the Big Ten in running back Antwan Raymond and wide receiver K.J. Duff. However, beyond these two, Rutgers has an offensive line to reshuffle, a mid-off taking place at quarterback between A.J. Surace and Dylan Lonergan, and the Big Ten’s worst defense to overhaul completely. A favorable schedule has seen this win total rise in recent weeks, and despite the inevitable 25-carry workload of Raymond and the spectacular-catch ability of Duff, .500 feels just out of reach.

Prediction: Under

UCLA is one of the hardest places to win in the country, but the winds of change are stirring out West. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava is back and there is talent on the roster, whether it be retained in the secondary or added via the portal along the offensive line and with running back Wayne Knight.

The Bruins face a tough non-conference schedule relative to most of the Big Ten, brutal travel dates, and tough games against Oregon, Michigan and USC. With a few drinks, you could talk me into 5-7 or 9-3. I believe in new head coach Bob Chesney to have this program up and running right away, at least as it pertains to the over/under. To be safe, while sober, I’ll shoot the middle and say this team wins seven games.

Prediction: Over

USC is a sleeping giant in the Big Ten. Head coach Lincoln Riley brings back Jayden Maiava at quarterback, 13 other starters across both sides of the ball, including the entire offensive line. The Trojans also brought in the nation’s top-rated recruiting class, and College Football Hall of Famer Gary Patterson to call the defense.

This team won nine games last season and went undefeated at home. I get it, the Trojans play a tougher schedule this year against Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon, but the latter two are at the Coliseum. USC will have a formidable one-two punch with running backs King Miller and Waymond Jordan, and if the road woes can be mitigated, this team is a dark horse to sneak into the CFP.

Prediction: Over

Washington could win 10 games or six games and neither would be surprising. When quarterback Demond Williams is rolling, he looks like Pat White on the field. But when he’s away from Seattle, he struggles to play to his potential. At home, Williams threw 16 touchdowns to only two interceptions, and played Ohio State tight despite the final score. On the road, he threw nine touchdowns to six interceptions, and the Huskies lost to four-win Wisconsin and the worst offense in the Power Four last season.

Coupled with Williams’s off-season re-signing followed by his attempt to transfer, the university’s litigation threat, and his re-commitment to the program, is this a quarterback anyone can trust to make good decisions under pressure?

Prediction: Under

You know you are in need of a football fix when Wisconsin optimism starts to intrude on your sport’s logic. But hear me out. This team won four games with backup quarterbacks playing 11 games and the hardest schedule in the country last year. Now they miss Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State and Michigan.

Factoring in the complete absence of offensive support, this defense was incredible last season under Mike Tressel and will be solid again. Former Sun Belt Player of the Year, Colton Joseph, is expected to take the reins at quarterback and lead a run-first offense that cannot literally get any worse. Wisconsin will be better, but logic must prevail.

Prediction: Under

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