World Cup 2026: Which third-place team will the United States play in the Round of 32?

How long will the United States have to wait to know who it faces in the Round of 32 at the 2026 World Cup?

The USMNT has already locked up Group D thanks to wins over Paraguay and Australia and knows that it will begin the knockout rounds on July 1 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. However, it may not know who it faces in that game until the group stage games are completed on Saturday.

Because the World Cup expanded to 48 teams, the composition of the knockout rounds isn’t as straightforward as it once was. In 2022, 16 of the 32 teams in the tournament advanced. And with eight groups of four, the top two teams from each group advanced.

There are 12 groups of four in 2026. The top two teams from each group still advance and the remaining eight spots are filled by teams that finished third place in their group.

The eight third-place teams with the most points will advance. If teams are tied on points, goal differential and goals scored are the top two tiebreakers followed by fair play score. The fair play score is determined by a team’s number of yellow and red cards accumulated during the group stage. The fewer cards, the better the score.

Once the eight advancing teams are sorted out, they’re placed into the knockout rounds based on one of nearly 500 combinations that FIFA ran months before the tournament.

Instead of being assigned to open Round of 32 spots based on points accumulated in the group stages, the teams are slotted in based on which groups they came from.

For example, if the third-place teams from Groups E, F, G, H, I, J, K and L are the top eight teams, then Mexico would play the third-place team from Group E. But if the third-place team in Group D advances at the expense of the third-place team in Group E and the teams from F, G, H, I, J, K and L still advance, Mexico would play the team from Group H in the Round of 32.

Got all that? Good. Let’s get to the important part.

Because of those combinations, we knew entering the tournament that if the United States won its group it would play a third-place team from B, E, F, I or J in the first knockout round because teams from the same group cannot meet until the quarterfinals.

As it stands on Monday afternoon, the United States will play Ecuador from Group E, according to the BBC’s live tracker. Ecuador has played two matches and has a point ahead of its final group stage game against Germany. Ecuador will need at least a tie in that game to get third place.

Given how well Germany has played in its first two games, it’s fair to say that Ecuador is an unlikely opponent. Per the Athletic’s forecasting, Bosnia-Herzegovina from Group B is the most likely U.S. opponent with a 58% chance of that matchup happening. Qatar and Senegal are the next most-likely teams. Qatar is also in Group B and plays Bosnia-Herzegovina on Wednesday. Both teams have one point through two games.

Senegal, meanwhile, lost to France in its opening game and plays Norway on Monday night. Senegal is one of the top teams in Africa and would be — by far — the toughest opponent the United States could realistically face in the first knockout round.

The U.S. winning Group D did help determine when and where the Americans would play in every knockout round for the rest of the tournament. Here are those locations and dates if they advance each :