World Cup 2026: What are the scenarios for Group A?

The first full week of the FIFA 2026 World Cup is in the books. Every team has played a match, and starting Thursday we will begin the second round of games for each nation.

And some teams can already clinch a spot in the knockout round.

Here are the scenarios for Group A heading into Thursday’s matches.

Update: Thursday began with a 1-1 draw between Czechia. That means that if there is a winner of tonight’s match between Mexico and South Korea, they will win Group A and face a third-place team from Group C, E, F, H, or I in the Round of 32.

With Mexico’s 1-0 win over South Korea, Mexico has won Group A. South Korea remains in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Round of 32.

Read on to see the scenarios ahead of the final matches, scheduled for June 24.

Here are the current Group A standings, ahead of matches on Wednesday, June 24

Here is the rest of the Group A schedule. All times are Eastern

Thursday, June 18

Czechia 1, South Africa 1
Mexico 1, South Korea 0

Wednesday, June 24

South Africa vs. South Korea, 9:00 p.m.
Czechia vs. Mexico, 9:00 p.m.

Here are the scenarios ahead of the final day of matches, set for June 24. These scenarios involve automatic qualification for the Round of 32 as one of the top two teams in the group. Teams can still advance as a third-place team, and for more on those standings we have you covered here. In addition, teams that are “eliminated” are guaranteed to finish fourth in their group. 

Mexico has clinched Group A, and will meet a third-place team from Group C, E, F, H, or I in the Round of 32 in Mexico City. 

South Korea will clinch a spot in the knockout round as the second-place team in Group A with a win or draw against South Africa. They will be eliminated with a loss, plus a Czechia win against Mexico.

Czechia will clinch a spot in the knockout round as the second-place team in Group A with a win against Mexico, a South Africa win against South Korea, and then a win over South Africa on tiebreakers, starting with overall goal difference. It bears mentioning that the final tiebreaker – FIFA World Rankings – gives Czechia the advantage over South Africa. Czechia was ranked 40th in the last official rankings, while South Africa was ranked 60th. 

They will be eliminated with: 

• A loss to Mexico and a South Africa draw or win against South Korea
• A loss to Mexico, a South Africa loss to South Korea, and South Africa wins the tiebreakers
• A draw against Mexico, and a South Africa win against South Korea

South Africa can still advance to the Round of 32. With a win against South Korea, and a Czechia loss or draw against Mexico, South Africa is in as the second-place team out of Group A. They can also get in as the second-place team out of Group A with a win against South Korea, a Czechia win against Mexico, and then South Africa wins the tiebreakers.

South Africa will be eliminated with a loss or draw against South Korea, if Czechia wins or draws against Mexico. They will also be eliminated with a loss to South Korea, and a Czechia loss to Mexico, if Czechia then wins the subsequent tiebreakers.

As mentioned above, tiebreakers may come into play here. So is how tiebreakers work at the World Cup this year.

If two or more teams in the same group are equal on points following the group stage, a three-step process will be followed to determine tiebreakers.

In the first step, the greatest number of points in the group matches between the tied teams will be applied. Then, the superior goal difference from the group matches between the tied teams will be applied, and finally, the greatest number of goals scored in all group matches between the tied teams will be applied.

If that cannot determine a tiebreaker, then the teams that are still equal will advance to step two. In this stage, the first step is the goal difference in all group matches, then the greatest number of goals in all group matches, and finally the highest team conduct score (relating to yellow and red cards) will be applied.

If that does not break the tie, then the teams still equal on points will be ranked according to the most recent FIFA World Rankings.

That first step, which reads “greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned” according to FIFA, effectively turns into a head-to-head tiebreaker in the case of ties between two teams.