World Bank forecasts higher energy, food commodity prices

The costs of energy and food items will increase in the remainder of 2026 into 2027, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, released Wednesday.

The report forecasts a varying jump in prices, citing the shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict, which has depleted oil reserves and is set to push energy costs to a four-year high.

The outlook highlighted reduced grain supply due to disruptions to global maritime shipping, as well as El Niño’s threats to harvests and food affordability.

Energy prices are estimated to rise 32% in 2026, food commodity costs to rise 10%, while overall commodity prices are forecast to rise 23% before declining by 7% in 2027.

The projection, however, is based on the assumption that there is no major intensification of the conflicts in the Middle East and Europe, where Russia faces damage to its refineries.

Ayhan Kose, World Bank’s Deputy Chief Economist, noted that higher costs of energy and commodities could worsen inflation, food insecurity, and economic growth.

“The priority must be to protect the poorest people and support low-income countries already struggling with heavy debt burdens,” added Kose, Director of the Prospects Group.

The World Bank assured it is helping countries respond to the challenges, with $50 – $60 billion available through existing instruments, including $25 billion in pre-arranged financing.

The institution also reaffirmed its commitment to further invest in the next generation of youth in developing countries by improving the conditions for job creation.