What we're watching for on Ag Day and CSU vs Southern Utah prediction

Do you know the last time the Colorado State football team opened a season with back-to-back wins?

It’s been a while. Back to 2011 (ironically in a season that ended 3-9). Only five times in the 2000s have the Rams started a season 2-0.

CSU is looking to do just that Sept. 12 when the Rams host FCS opponent Southern Utah on Ag Day at Canvas Stadium.

Here’s what we’re watching for in the game, plus a final score prediction:

It’s been too uncomfortable for CSU in recent matchups against FCS opponents. Everyone remembers 2025 when the Rams beat Northern Colorado 21-17 but only because a very controversial call wiped off a would-be winning Hail Mary for UNC.

In the last 10 years, the Rams have been dominated by Sacramento State, South Dakota State and Illinois State in ugly home losses to FCS teams.

CSU is just 4-3 against FCS teams dating back to 2017. It’s simply not good enough when facing programs that are supposed to be a level below the Rams.

Southern Utah on paper (more below) appears to be a solid FCS team, but the level of investment is still worlds apart.

Can CSU make this a business-like performance and take down Southern Utah without unnecessary drama?
?

Southern Utah (1-1) started its season with a tight 28-21 loss at FCS power Montana (ranked No. 2 in FCS at the time). That close result alone signals a team with some quality.

Southern Utah racked up more than 500 yards of offense in that game and held the ball for 43 of 60 minutes.

Then Southern Utah poured on 47 points in a win (47-42) over Weber State last week where the Thunderbirds had 368 yards rushing and another 514 yards of offense.

Those are eye-popping offensive numbers.

“Every week it’s a different proposition. When you’re in the NFL, there’s so many similarities throughout schemes. When you’re in college, there’s so many variables every week. Now we’re playing a team that’s going to run some option,” CSU coach Jim Mora said.

“They’ve got a quarterback that’s active. Sometimes they’ll slow it down, sometimes they’ll go fast, they’ll give us unusual formations. When you play a team like that, the most important thing you stress is just follow your rules.”

QB Will Burns has 267 rush yards, 397 pass yards and six total touchdowns this season. Running back Floyd Chalk, who CSU has previously faced when he was at San Jose State, has 283 rush yards (5.8 per carry) and four touchdowns already.

It’s an FCS team, yes, but one with plenty of danger for CSU to be wary of.

The Rams had 154 rush yards at 4.7 yards per carry last week in a win over Wyoming. Fine numbers but not sensational. Durell Robinson had 52 yards on 12 carries (4.3 per carry) and Mel Brown had 57 on eight carries (7.1 per carry).

CSU was best in the run game in the fourth quarter, which could be a good sign of the ability to wear teams down.

“I don’t think any of us are satisfied with the run game, the consistency of it,” Mora said. “You’re not going to hit a big one on every play, but we would like to be more consistent with the 4-, 5-, 6-yard runs that turn into 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and then those turn into 20 and 40. Our experience and our scheme is that we’ve got to keep pounding people.”

QB Hauss Hejny could also be part of that rushing weaponry. He had 39 yards last week.

CSU missed two potential starting offensive linemen last week in Jayden Tuia and Quinton Harris. Mora said both are progressing well in injury recovery but did not give a timeline on when they may return.

Southern Utah will surely be wary of CSU’s pass game that produced five TDs through the air for Hejny, so the Rams may find opportunities to counter-punch through the ground attack.

Southern Utah has a dangerous offense and will move the ball at times, but CSU should have size and athleticism to keep it from running wild. Plus, the Rams are fresh off forcing four turnovers and getting a couple more in this game would help tip the scales.

And for as dynamic as the Thunderbird offense has been, the defense looks vulnerable. Weber State scored 42 on Southern Utah last week and teams are averaging 6.6 yards per play against the Thunderbirds.

Traditionally, this could be viewed as a trap game for CSU. The Rams are fresh off a rivalry win and face a top-15 BYU team next week. But Mora is just the type of coach to make sure that thinking isn’t present in the locker room.

He’s praised the mental maturity of this CSU roster for months and it will show in this game. Rams secure a business-like win.

Sports reporter Kevin Lytle can be found on social media on X, Instagram and Threads @Kevin_Lytle and on Bluesky.

This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: What we’re watching for on Ag Day and CSU vs Southern Utah prediction