Week 11 college football betting, odds: 3 early bets to make right now

By this point in the college football season, it’s easy to let one bad Saturday change how you feel about a team.

Fresno State couldn’t run the ball last week, while Texas State couldn’t be stopped on the ground, and now the Bulldogs are catching more than a touchdown in a matchup where their defense should give them a chance. This week’s card includes a buy-low opportunity on Fresno, a No. 7 Alabama team with a much better defensive matchup than it had at LSU and an over built around two defenses I don’t trust to get enough stops.

Here are my three early Week 11 bets.

No. 7 Alabama (-17.5, 52.5) at Vanderbilt

Alabama won by 18 at LSU, but that was a much more difficult game than the final score suggests. The Tigers moved the ball for 457 yards, failed on all four fourth-down attempts and handed the Tide a short scoring drive with a late turnover on downs deep in their own territory. I wouldn’t look at that result and assume Alabama has figured everything out offensively.

Vanderbilt has something to build on, too. The Commodores picked up their first SEC win of the season at Mississippi State, getting six field goals from Brock Taylor and putting together an 18-play touchdown drive that took more than 10 minutes. Running the ball, staying on the field and keeping the opposing offense on the sideline is exactly how they need to play this game.

Doing that against Alabama is a different problem, though. We rank the Tide No. 9 defensively, while Vanderbilt’s offense sits 89th, and a team that needed six field goals to beat Mississippi State can’t afford many empty possessions here. If Alabama takes away the running game and forces QB Jared Curtis into obvious passing situations, Vanderbilt is going to struggle to sustain the drives that kept it competitive on Saturday.

There are injury concerns on Alabama’s side, as well. Tight end Josh Ford is out for the season, and QB Keelon Russell briefly left the LSU game with an ankle injury before returning to finish. I’m betting this with the expectation that Russell starts Saturday. We make Alabama a 22.1-point favorite, with Bill Connelly’s SP+ close behind at 21.7. I’m comfortable laying 17.5 if Russell starts.

Bet: Alabama -17.5 (-105)

Fresno State at Texas State (-9.5, 60.5)

Texas State ran for 386 yards at Oregon State last week; Fresno State ran for 16 at Utah State. If those are the only two numbers you’re looking at, I understand why laying the points with the Bobcats looks appealing. Texas State has the better offense, and QB Brad Jackson’s ability to run makes it difficult to defend. Fresno State has to account for the quarterback on the ground while keeping up with an offense that wants to play fast, especially if Fresno State keeps sending its defense back onto the field after short possessions.

But Fresno State’s defense wasn’t the reason it lost last week. The Bulldogs held Utah State to 269 total yards, but their offense didn’t reach the end zone until the final minutes. We have that defense No. 39 in our ratings, well ahead of a Texas State unit that ranks No. 85. The Bulldogs play much slower, and Texas State’s defense gives them a better chance to get the running game going and avoid asking Jayden Mandal to carry the entire offense. Fresno State doesn’t need to match the Bobcats in a shootout. It needs to sustain enough possessions to keep Jackson off the field and give its own defense a chance to hold up.

Bet on Fresno State to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

Our projection has Texas State winning 31.4-25.5, while SP+ makes the Bobcats just a 3.4-point favorite. Fresno earned some skepticism with that offensive performance, but I’m willing to buy back on a defense that played well while the other half of the team did very little to help it.

Bet: Fresno State +9.5 (-107)

Jacksonville State (-7.5, 53.5) at Western Kentucky

Jacksonville State has won six straight, but the over is more interesting to me than laying points on the road.

Western Kentucky showed some improvement after changing quarterbacks, but it still allowed 513 yards to Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders hit a long touchdown pass in the first quarter and opened the second half with a long touchdown run. Now Western Kentucky faces QB Caden Creel, who threw for 246 yards and ran for another 87 against Sam Houston. His ability to keep the ball gives the Hilltoppers another rushing threat to account for, and they’ve already had trouble limiting big plays through the air and on the ground.

The other side of the total depends on Western Kentucky building on what it found after changing quarterbacks. Rodney Tisdale Jr. replaced Brock Glenn, completed 11 of 13 passes and led the comeback that tied the game in the final minute. RB Ajay Allen added 116 rushing yards, so the Hilltoppers weren’t asking the passing game to do everything.

The starting QB decision is still unsettled, but Tisdale Jr. gave them a reason to believe the offense can improve. Jacksonville State ranks No. 112 defensively in our ratings, which makes this a reasonable spot to expect Western Kentucky to put together scoring drives regardless of whether it can keep up. I don’t want to overstate Jacksonville State’s 47 points last week, either. A safety and a kickoff-return touchdown helped that total, though the offense still gained 479 yards and now faces our No. 118 defense.

We project 59.3 points here. Western Kentucky’s QB situation is still a concern, but I’m willing to back the Hilltoppers offense against this Gamecocks defense.

Bet: Over 53.5 (-108)