Uzbeks to beat DR Congo? The reality of Scotland's qualification mental gymnastics

“Are we wanting Uzbekistan to beat DR Congo?”

Life following Scotland at the World Cup isn’t all partying, traffic cones and baseball. It’s mental gymnastics and watching games from home at daft o’clock not quite sure what the best outcome is.

Defeat by Morocco on Friday has left the Scots’ most likely route out of the group being as one of the eight best third-placed teams, but you’d need a degree in mathematics, statistics and clairvoyance to know what other results are best.

But in the absence of any of those, let’s have a crack at working out what Scotland need to do – or need to happen – anyway.

Sounds easy when you put it like that.

A victory over the former world champions on Wednesday would propel Steve Clarke’s side on to six points, guaranteeing at least second spot in the group.

Although they overwhelmed Haiti on Friday, the Brazilians looked tame in their opening draw with Morocco.

But they are ranked sixth in the world while Scotland are 40th. Let’s just skim over that detail.

History isn’t on the Scots’ side in Miami, either. They nations have faced each other 10 times, with eight wins for Brazil and just two draws, the last in 1974.

Still, the spirited second half against Morocco, and the chances that were created, will offer hope amid the pain in Boston before the Tartan Army travel to Florida.

At the time of writing, Scotland are the best third-placed team and the only one with three points. But the massive caveat is that not many teams have actually played two games yet.

Between now and Scotland’s game against Brazil, there are 18 games. Here’s the results, in chronological order, to keep an eye out for:

18:00 BST – Netherlands v Sweden (Group F): A Sweden win to keep up slim hopes of Netherlands not finishing on more than their current point

21:00 BST – Germany v Ivory Coast (Group E): A Germany win, ideally a big win to lower Ivory Coast’s goal difference

• 01:00 BST – Ecuador v Curacao (Group E): Ideally a draw with Ecuador still to play Germany and Curacao already with a heavy negative goal difference

• 05:00 BST – Tunisia v Japan (Group F): Probably a draw. This is a tricky group to predict

• 17:00 BST – Spain v Saudi Arabia (Group H): Probably a Spain win to keep Saudi Arabia on a point

• 20:00 BST – Belgium v Iran (Group G): A Belgium win after opening draws for both

• 23:00 BST – Uruguay v Cape Verde (Group H): Similar to above, Scotland likely want Uruguay and Spain to take control of the group

01:00 BST – Ecuador v Curacao (Group E): Ideally a draw with Ecuador still to play Germany and Curacao already with a heavy negative goal difference

05:00 BST – Tunisia v Japan (Group F): Probably a draw. This is a tricky group to predict

17:00 BST – Spain v Saudi Arabia (Group H): Probably a Spain win to keep Saudi Arabia on a point

20:00 BST – Belgium v Iran (Group G): A Belgium win after opening draws for both

23:00 BST – Uruguay v Cape Verde (Group H): Similar to above, Scotland likely want Uruguay and Spain to take control of the group

18:00 BST – Argentina v Austria (Group J): Both these teams will likely finish first and second, but a big Argentina win wouldn’t do any harm

22:00 BST – France v Iraq (Group I): A French win to keep Iraq on zero points

• 01:00 BST – Norway v Senegal (Group I): Similar to above, a Norway win

• 04:00 BST – Jordan v Algeria (Group J): Both teams are on zero points with a poor goal difference. Either a draw or a narrow Jordan win knowing they’ve still to play Argentina

• 18:00 BST – Portugal v Uzbekistan (Group K): Portugal on the basis they should come good and Uzbekistan are bottom on zero points

• 21:00 BST – England v Ghana (Group L): Both teams on three but probably an England win

01:00 BST – Norway v Senegal (Group I): Similar to above, a Norway win

04:00 BST – Jordan v Algeria (Group J): Both teams are on zero points with a poor goal difference. Either a draw or a narrow Jordan win knowing they’ve still to play Argentina

18:00 BST – Portugal v Uzbekistan (Group K): Portugal on the basis they should come good and Uzbekistan are bottom on zero points

21:00 BST – England v Ghana (Group L): Both teams on three but probably an England win

• 00:00 BST – Panama v Croatia (Group L): This is tricky. A Panama win followed by an England defeat would be the perfect scenario. Second choice would be a draw.

• 03:00 BST – Colombia v DR Congo (Group K): Colombia to win to keep Congo DR on one point

• 20:00 BST – Switzerland v Canada (20:00 BST): Both already on four. Likely doesn’t matter

• 20:00 BST – Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar (20:00 BST): A draw and for both to not win last games

00:00 BST – Panama v Croatia (Group L): This is tricky. A Panama win followed by an England defeat would be the perfect scenario. Second choice would be a draw.

03:00 BST – Colombia v DR Congo (Group K): Colombia to win to keep Congo DR on one point

20:00 BST – Switzerland v Canada (20:00 BST): Both already on four. Likely doesn’t matter

20:00 BST – Bosnia-Herzegovina v Qatar (20:00 BST): A draw and for both to not win last games

Right now, the stats experts at Opta have calculated that Scotland have a 73.5% shot at making it out of the group. That’s good, right?

Eight of the best third-placed teams will make it through, and four points would almost certainly guarantee a place in the last 32.

The problem comes if Scotland suffer a heavy defeat in Miami.

After two games, they sit on three points with a goal difference of zero. If they remain on three after the Brazil game, that will slip to -1 at best.

Of the other groups with two rounds of fixtures completed – granted there are only two of them – their third-placed teams are on just a single point.

However, both of them have to still play the team sitting bottom, meaning it may well be they finish on four points. Still with us?

History suggests that a -2 goal difference and three points might be enough for the Scots. Having said that, the expanded tournament, and the now vastly different standard of teams, may well cause havoc in predicting it.

Ultimately, Scotland are looking for the bottom seeds in each group to not win any games, but not take a tanking off the team who finishes third.

If you thought the above was confusing, strap in…

The Group C winners will head to Houston, Texas, where they will face the runners up of the Netherlands-Sweden-Japan group. It would take a remarkable set of results for that game to involve Scotland.

Claim second spot and Clarke’s men are off to Monterrey in Mexico – this time against the winners of the Netherlands-Sweden-Japan section.

The more likely outcome will be Scotland finishing third and getting through. In that outcome, there are – wait for it – 495 different permutations which will decide where Scotland end up.

It is most likely that they will face the winner of Group E, which looks likely to be Germany, back at Boston Stadium, on Monday, 29 June (21:30 BST).

A second route already has the opponent confirmed – Mexico in Mexico City at 02:00 BST on Wednesday, 1 July.

The third route would see them face the winner of Group I, in which France and Norway both won their opening match, at the New York/New Jersey Stadium on Tuesday, 30 June (20:00 BST). That is the least likely of the three.

There’s just the small matter of getting the right result against Brazil first. Easy peasy.

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