US Open preview: Carlos Alcaraz's return, battle for No. 1 WTA ranking among biggest storylines in NYC

The 2026 US Open begins in earnest on Sunday, and it’s hard to think of a time when this tournament felt so wide open among both men and women.

There is no Jannik Sinner. There might not be a fully healthy Carlos Alcaraz or Novak Djokovic. Aryna Sabalenka, the two-time defending champion, has been in a slump. Seven different women have won the past seven Grand Slams.

There’s no telling how it will work out, with multiple layers of drama built into the draw. Let’s get into all of that.

More than any sport, men’s tennis has been defined by its rivalries. Borg-McEnroe, Sampras-Agassi, Federer-Nadal-Djokovic. Titans of the sport, regularly facing each other in the biggest spots. Sinner-Alcaraz is supposed to be the next chapter of that, and some of their clashes are already legendary.

And yet, the two haven’t played each other since Monte Carlo in April, shortly before Alcaraz went down with the wrist injury that has kept him out until this tournament. He’s back now, just in time to watch Sinner vacate the draw with a knee injury. They will not play each other in a Grand Slam in 2026.

This is obviously concerning, especially considering we are talking about a 25-year-old and 23-year-old who are already facing not-small questions about their health. They’re supposed to rule this sport for the next decade, but can we really expect them to stay on the court long enough to do that in their 30s?

It will be something to monitor for years to come. For now, we at least get Alcaraz back with the hope that he can deliver his usual magic at Flushing Meadows. Despite him not playing a singles match since Barcelona in April, you would be hard-pressed to find a sportsbook that doesn’t have him as the tournament favorite.

Alcaraz did play in the more casual mixed doubles event alongside Serena Williams before the draw, defeating doubles specialists Erin Routliffe and Lloyd Glasspool before losing to the pairing of Belinda Bencic and Flavio Cobolli. We will decline to draw too many conclusions about his health from that single day of play, but it sure was conspicuous that they chose Williams to serve first while Alcaraz held off on the velocity for his own serves.

Not far from Alcaraz on the odds leaderboard is top seed Alexander Zverev, who landed a fairly soft draw on Thursday and has posted career-best results in the past two Grand Slams with his Roland-Garros title and Wimbledon final appearance.

When the dust settles in New York, any of four different women could be holding the WTA No. 1 ranking.

Odds are decent that it will be the current No. 2, Elena Rybakina. She currently sits 434 points behind No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka, the tournament’s defending champion. However, that trophy also means Sabalenka has 2,000 points to defend this time around, and none to gain. Meanwhile, Rybakina is defending just 240 points after losing in the Round of 16 last year.

That gives Rybakina a simple path to No. 1, though any of Sabalenka, No. 3 Jessica Pegula or No. 4 Coco Gauff could hold the top ranking once the dust clears.

There are basically three scenarios at play here:

1. Rybakina reaches semifinal: Rybakina becomes No. 1 no matter what.

2. Rybakina does not reach semifinal, one of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff wins the title: The champion either stays or becomes No. 1.

3. Rybakina does not reach semifinal, none of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff win the title: Rybakina becomes No. 1 no matter what.

Rybakina reaches semifinal: Rybakina becomes No. 1 no matter what.

Rybakina does not reach semifinal, one of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff wins the title: The champion either stays or becomes No. 1.

Rybakina does not reach semifinal, none of Sabalenka, Pegula or Gauff win the title: Rybakina becomes No. 1 no matter what.

Rybakina has been slowly chasing Sabalenka all year, despite winning only one other title (Stuttgart) since her Australian Open win. It’s been a meh season by Sabalenka standards so far, but the shift to hard courts was supposed to be her launching pad. We saw her excel on the same surface months ago when she won the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami, shortly after reaching the Australian Open final.

Sabalenka’s results so far: Round of 16 at Toronto, Round of 16 at Cincinnati. Losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova (currently No. 19 in the world) and Sara Bejlek (No. 29). Rarely does the world No. 1 feel this vulnerable going into a Grand Slam in which she’s the two-time defending champion.

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Elena Rybakina’s path to No. 1 is wide open.

Rybakina isn’t without issues either, as she retired against Świątek in Cincinnati with an apparent Achilles injury, and it’s unclear how close she is to full strength entering the tournament.

The drought now stands at 23 years.

We haven’t seen an American man win a Grand Slam title since Andy Roddick’s US Open title in 2003, a span of time in which eight different players have made the year-end top 10 rankings (Roddick, Andre Agassi, James Blake, Mardy Fish, Jack Sock, John Isner, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton).

It’s not an inconceivable failure, as winning a Grand Slam requires some combination of generational talent and luck of the draw these days, and neither has really come the U.S.’s way. However, this field has as good a chance as any in recent memory at finally making something happen.

This year’s tournament will see six American men seeded, tied with last year for the most since the 1990s:

• No. 8 Ben Shelton

• No. 9 Taylor Fritz

• No. 11 Frances Tiafoe

• No. 14 Learner Tien

• No. 16 Brandon Nakashima

• No. 20 Tommy Paul

Of course, only one member of last year’s sextet (the same group with Alex Michelsen instead of Tien) reached the quarterfinals, but this year could be different.

Fritz and Shelton are both legitimate top-10 talents, while Tiafoe, Tien and Nakashima each reached a semifinal or better in Montreal or Cincinnati. Momentum is on the U.S.’ side entering this year’s US Open, and that’s significant with the top of the field so unsettled.

Alcaraz is playing for the first time in months. Zverev hasn’t won a hard court title since the Paris Masters in 2024, nearly two years ago. Djokovic is… let’s talk about that.

Remember 2023, when Novak Djokovic’s quest for a record 25th Grand Slam title appeared inevitable? We’ve now reached the opposite end of the spectrum, where No. 25 appears to be a long shot at best.

It’s easy to attribute that solely to the rise of Sinner and Alcaraz, who have won every Grand Slam but this year’s Roland-Garros (Zverev) since the start of 2024. However, the uncomfortable truth for Djokovic is that his own abilities and health have been as much an impediment to No. 25 as Sinner and Alcaraz in 2026.

Yes, Alcaraz beat Djokovic in Melbourne, and Sinner beat him in London, but Djokovic has competed in only six tournaments all year entering this tournament. In two of those — Cincinnati and Rome — he didn’t win a match, losing his opener each time after a first-round bye. Djokovic is essentially a part-time player at 39 years old, only entering the most important tournaments that fit his own schedule, and his absences haven’t helped him stay up to speed in an ever-accelerating sport.

We certainly saw that in the Cincinnati loss two weeks ago. Djokovic was leading 6-2, 2-1 on a hot day in Ohio, then lost his lunch, called the doctor and played the rest of the match a step behind Thiago Agustín Tirante.

His explanation after the match, via The Guardian:

“It’s just the condition that I have health-wise,” he said. “It’s been bothering me for the last couple of years. And a lot of issues, especially when it’s humid and hot. Yeah.”

Djokovic said he had anticipated a difficult day but tension and pressure of matchplay had naturally made things worse. “Yeah, I did, but it is all these things … nerves and everything involved makes it worse. So that’s what happened.”

“It’s just the condition that I have health-wise,” he said. “It’s been bothering me for the last couple of years. And a lot of issues, especially when it’s humid and hot. Yeah.”

Djokovic said he had anticipated a difficult day but tension and pressure of matchplay had naturally made things worse. “Yeah, I did, but it is all these things … nerves and everything involved makes it worse. So that’s what happened.”

Does that sound like a guy ready to face top-10 players in a five-set match, with summer heat still lingering in New York?

This used to be the absolute last player in the world you wanted to face in a five-set war of attrition. Djokovic’s endurance, not to mention his mental toughness, was legendary from his prime until just a few years ago. If he doesn’t have that final gear he’s used to crush the hopes of multiple generations, he will be out there like Rafael Nadal with half a forehand.

No list of the top players in women’s tennis is complete right now without Gauff and Iga Świątek, which sure made it notable that neither player had won a title through Wimbledon in 2026.

Both multi-time Grand Slam champions have had their struggles recently. Gauff’s serve has come and gone despite hiring biomechanist Gavin MacMillan more than a year ago to fix it, with some rather public turbulence along the way. Świątek fired coach Wim Fissette after a second-round exit in Miami and replaced him with former Rafael Nadal coach Francisco Roig.

Both women’s fortunes have turned recently, with each winning a WTA 1000 title in the past month. Świątek defeated Rybakina, Elina Svitolina and Marta Kostyuk on her way to her first Canadian title. Gauff defeated Pegula and Kostyuk in Cincinnati.

That qualifies as momentum for two former US Open champions looking to reassert their elite status. The draw didn’t do them many favors, though, as Świątek could face Rybakina in a loaded quarterfinal, while Gauff drew No. 5 seed Mirra Andreeva and No. 10 Amanda Anisimova in her quarter.

Injured or not, Alcaraz and Sinner are obviously the dominant forces of modern tennis. We’re still waiting for someone who can regularly challenge them, if not overtake them, someday.

Rafael Jodar, 19, and Arthur Fils, 22, are two of the most promising candidates. They have shown enough on the hard courts in the past month that they are hovering around the sixth- and seventh-best odds in the field at most sportsbooks. They will certainly be among the most fun players to watch.

Fils earned that status by winning his first career Masters 1000 title in Cincinnati, defeating top-10 players Flavio Cobolli and Alex de Minaur in straight sets along the way. Jodar still hasn’t won anything above an ATP 250 title in his career but, well, you can forgive the tennis establishment for being excited about a Spanish 19-year-old named Rafael who has been showcasing huge power and competitive fire.

The loudest cheering sections at this year’s US Open probably won’t be for the Americans.

At 21 years old, No. 17 seed Alex Eala is a promising young player who just won her first WTA tournament in D.C in early August. That is what she is in a vacuum: a scrappy, quick player who can make any player look uncomfortable.

She is also followed by the most fervent fanbase in tennis, carrying the hopes of the Philippines into every match. Members of the Filipino diaspora show up in jaw-dropping numbers at all of her tournaments. The people back home in a country of 114 million people watch everything they can, as Yahoo Sports’ Dan Wolken broke down earlier this week:

At tournament after tournament, Eala’s press conferences and match highlights draw massive streaming numbers, dwarfing those of players who are more famous worldwide. When Eala knocked defending champion Iga Świątek out of Wimbledon last month, the full match replay was viewed 998,000 times on YouTube. For comparison’s sake, the replay of Serena Williams’ comeback match against Maya Joint had 122,000 views.

At tournament after tournament, Eala’s press conferences and match highlights draw massive streaming numbers, dwarfing those of players who are more famous worldwide. When Eala knocked defending champion Iga Świątek out of Wimbledon last month, the full match replay was viewed 998,000 times on YouTube. For comparison’s sake, the replay of Serena Williams’ comeback match against Maya Joint had 122,000 views.

Expecting a deep run would be unreasonable for Eala at this stage of her career, but she also just posted her best result ever in a Grand Slam with a fourth-round appearance at Wimbledon. If she tops that, you will hear about it.

It was confirmed Wednesday that Serena and Venus Williams will take part in doubles at Flushing Meadows, a pairing that won the tournament in 1999 and 2009. They were supposed to play at Wimbledon too, until a knee injury forced Serena to withdraw. They paired up again in Cincinnati, losing their first match to Kostyuk and Peyton Stearns.

Serena also took part in the US Open’s two-day mixed doubles spectacle earlier this week alongside Alcaraz, defeating the doubles specialist pair of Erin Routliffe and Lloyd Glasspool before losing to No. 4 seed Belinda Bencic and Flavio Cobolli.

Serena will not play in the singles draw, which means her first-round loss to Maya Joint at Wimbledon remains the only singles match she’s played in her much-followed comeback. Venus will take part in singles, where she is on a 14-match losing streak.

At this point, the flow of Venus’ career is painfully consistent at the age of 46: A tournament gives her a wild card because her name is still a draw compared to its other options. More fans than usual turn out for a first-round match to watch a seven-time Grand Slam singles champion. She loses, gracefully.

Venus has not won a singles match since her comeback match against Stearns in D.C. last year, with 14 consecutive losses since then. Despite having been back for a full calendar year and receiving berths in a considerable number of high-point tournaments, she is ranked No. 611 in the WTA singles rankings. She has been moderately more successful in doubles, with a 3-9 record in 2026 and no wins past the first round.

Venus is now set to face 2020 Australian Open champion Sofia Kenin in the first round at Flushing Meadows, with Pegula facing the winner in the second round. We will find out the Williams sisters’ first doubles opponent on Tuesday.

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