UFC Vegas 121 preview: ‘Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos’ main, co-main event predictions

Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is just one day away from the upcoming UFC Vegas 121 mixed martial arts (MMA) event, which is set to go down tomorrow night (Sat., Sept. 26, 2026) on Paramount+ from inside Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. UFC Vegas 121 features a bantamweight main event between 135-pound standouts Raul Rosas Jr. and Raoni Barcelos, a five-round showdown that could shake up the division Top 10.

Before we dive into the main and co-main event, which includes the 135-pound collision between Top 5 women’s bantamweight contendersNorma Dumont and Ailín Perez, check out Andrew Richardson’s “X-Factor” breakdown for the rest of the UFC Vegas 121 main card by clicking UFC Vegas 121 preview: ‘Rosas Jr.. Get all the latest “Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos” odds and betting props courtesy of FanDuel right UFC Vegas 121 preview: ‘Rosas Jr.. For complete UFC Vegas 121 live results and play-by-play click UFC Vegas 121 preview: ‘Rosas Jr..

Raul “El Niño Problema” Rosas Jr.
Record: 12-1 | Age: 21 | Betting line: -165
Wins: 2 KO/TKO, 6 SUB, 4 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 1 DEC
Height: 5’9″ | Reach: 67″ | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 1.34 | Striking accuracy: 42%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.24 | Striking Defense: 52%
Takedown Average: 6.10 (54% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 25%
Current Ranking: No. 12 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Rob Font

Raoni Barcelos
Record: 22-5 | Age: 39 | Betting line: +135
Wins: 8 KO/TKO, 3 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC
Height: 5’7″ | Reach: 67″ | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 4.65 | Striking accuracy: 51%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 4.24 | Striking Defense: 60%
Takedown Average: 2.51 (31% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 87%
Current Ranking: No. 13 | Last fight: Split decision win over Montel Jackson

Raul Rosas Jr. is just 21 years old but already 12-1 in MMA and 6-1 under the UFC banner. “El Niño Problema” is not ranked in the official Meta Rankings but the media has him ranked one spot above Raoni Barcelos at No. 12, for whatever that’s worth (hint: not much). Rosas Jr. is fairly-one dimensional fighter, relying on his wrestling to neutralize his opponents while hunting for the submission, leading to six taps in 12 wins. After watching Gable Steveson get knocked into the shadow realm last weekend in Los Angeles, I don’t expect Rosas Jr. to start experimenting with his standup — and why should he? He’s comfortably outwrestled seven of his eight opponents and needs just three takedowns in this fight to move into No. 3 all-time in the bantamweight record book. That said, he’s up against a fellow wrestler ranked No. 8 all-time in takedowns who will be looking for a couple of takedowns of his own.

“I’ve got to be ready for short notice fights, be willing to take risks, and this Saturday, make a big statement for sure,” Rosas Jr. told Full Send MMA. “Not just a win, but I’ve got to make a statement. If by 25 I accomplish everything that I want to accomplish in my career, I’m just going to step back from the sport. The goal is to get the belt and then defend it a couple of times, try to challenge myself, go up a weight class, maybe two, and after I’m done, like, I run out of goals, that’s when I’m just gonna quit. It could be 26, 27, 28, but I’m just saying whenever I’m done with my goals, that’s when I’m gonna step out of the game.”

Raoni Barcelos went from promising prospect, to middling bantamweight, to red-hot veteran over the last eight years. He’s currently the winner of five straight, upsetting 135-pound wunderkind Payton Talbott while also turning away former champion Cody Garbrandt, among others. Like Rosas Jr., Barcelos relies heavily on offensive wresting and averages 2.5 takedowns per fight (compared to 6.1 for his opponent). There’s no question Barcelos has faced tougher competition throughout his career, going head-to-head against the likes of Umar and Said Nurmagomedov, as well as grizzled veterans like Ricky Simon and Chris Gutierrez. If there’s a critique to be made, it’s that Barcelos has only finished one fight over the last seven years, not a great sign for a fighter who is pushing 40 years old and still ranked outside the Top 10.

“It doesn’t scare me,” Barcelos said about his opponent’s youth during the UFC Vegas 121 media day. “I think after the Payton Talbott fight, I just became more and more confident in myself, seeing what I could do. Raul is tough and he’s going to keep growing. There are a lot of other great fighters for him to fight. There are a lot of other great fights for him but this is my moment. I really believe this is my moment and my time. I think building a story is what brings you fans. I really have a story, and I think people are noticing that. I think I’ve been gaining more fans, and I’m going to gain even more fans. It’s really cool to see that and just keep going with what I’m doing.”

Barcelos is the more experienced, well-rounded fighter and I would pick him in a three-round fight. But neither combatant has gone five rounds under the UFC banner and I can’t pick a 39-year-old veteran over a 21-year-old dynamo, especially when both fighters are going to be wrestling for the majority of the fight.

Norma Dumont vs. Ailín Perez

“The Immortal”Norma Dumont
Record: 13-3 | Age: 35 | Betting line: +130
Wins: 0 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 11 DEC | Losses: 1 KO/TKO, 0 SUB, 2 DEC
Height: 5’7″ | Reach: 67″ | Stance: Orthodox
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 3.85 | Striking accuracy: 50%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 2.33 | Striking Defense: 64%
Takedown Average: 1.43 (57% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 71%
Current Ranking: No. 2 | Last fight: Unanimous decision loss to Joselyne Edwards

Ailín “Fiona” Perez
Record: 13-2 | Age: 31 | Betting line: -155
Wins: 4 KO/TKO, 2 SUB, 7 DEC | Losses: 0 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 0 DEC
Height: 5’5″ | Reach: 66″ | Stance: Switch
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute: 2.88 | Striking accuracy: 56%
Strikes Absorbed Per Minute: 1.58 | Striking Defense: 56%
Takedown Average: 4.90 (49% accuracy) | Takedown Defense: 72%
Current Ranking: No. 4 | Last fight: Unanimous decision win over Macy Chiasson

Norma Dumont is coming off a loss but still ranked No. 2 at 135 pounds. That’s because she was defeated by the No. 1 contender, Joslyne Edwards, at UFC Vegas 116 back in April. That snapped a six-fight winning streak for the “Immortal” bantamweight, who is now 16 fights into her pro MMA career without a single knockout. In fact, the Brazilian has yet to finish a fight by any method in 12 trips to the Octagon and she hasn’t secured a stoppage since strangling Erica Leidianny Ribeiro on the regional circuit back in 2017. The only thing that matters, at least in terms of the big picture, is wins and losses and Dumont is 9-3 under the UFC banner and included on the very short list of women’s bantamweight title contenders. She’s a low output striker with solid offensive wrestling but comes into this co-main event contest as the slight underdog, likely due to her age and skill set.

“It’s a fight that literally has a personal anger, a personal issue, that the two of us have against each other,” Dumont told MMA Fighting. “It’s a fight that we’re going to deliver a lot. I’m excited, I really want it. I think it’s going to be fun. She has mental problems. This girl really has mental problems. She has this little game of trying to get people worked up. But, honestly, it’s very insignificant, so it makes absolutely no difference to me. Ever since she signed the contract, I’m going to focus on beating her on the 26th. I don’t need to say anything else; I don’t need to fall for her bait or play along with the little things she likes to do. She’s already not someone who has much shame about anything, neither in her personal life nor anything else, so now that the contract is signed, I already have my date to beat her; I have my time to do what I need to do, what I want to do without getting arrested, so it makes absolutely no difference to me what she does outside of the fight.”

Ailín Perez is ranked lower than Norma Dumont but is still the odds-on betting favorite. Probably because Perez is a takedown machine and currently sitting at No. 2 all-time for takedowns in the women’s bantamweight division. Her striking is serviceable but it’s really just an excuse to set up her takedowns and when she’s on, she’s virtually unstoppable. Just ask Ashlee Evans-Smith, who was taken down 10 times in her UFC Vegas 117 loss back in summer 2023. Ordinarily when you have a battle of wrestlers, it boils down to which combatant has the better defense. Dumont was taken down six times in a loss to Macy Chiasson and got outwrestled by Ketlen Vieira before losing to Joselyn Edwards — a bantamweight thoroughly handled and beaten by Perez (who also beat Chiasson). MMA math? Perhaps, but Dumont has two finishes in 13 wins and zero knockouts, so her path to victory remains limited.

“I feel ready, and not just to fight for the belt, but also to be the backup,” Perez told Hablemos MMA in Spanish. “I’m ready to replace Kayla or Amanda should the UFC need someone in November. Kayla is coming off neck surgery, and Amanda is older now. What happens is someone gets hurt in the weight cut, or something happens, Ailin Perez will be ready. I came to get a title shot. I came for that. But if I don’t get it, then it will be in the next fight. I have faith that I will get it, and I’m playing all my cards. I’m not just winning, but also growing my name. I have the respect of the people, and I’ve earned that. Like always, I lay it all on the line, and whatever happens, happens. I’ll be ready.”

Dumont is older and more limited in her attack. I think this is a one-sided fight.

Don’t forget to check out the rest of the UFC Vegas 121 main card predictions RIGHT HERE.