This season’s Ben Johnson, Mike Vrabel or Liam Coen? Ranking which new NFL head coaches have best shot at playoffs

NFL Coach of the Year often goes to the coach who gets hired and takes his team to the playoffs in his first season. The problem last season was three first-year head coaches did it.

Mike Vrabel won Coach of the Year after taking the Patriots to an AFC East title and a Super Bowl trip. Ben Johnson and Liam Coen led the Bears and Jaguars to surprising division titles as well. It was a good year for head coaching hires.

There are 10 new head coaches this season. Not all of them have the same chance to make the playoffs right away. Here’s the ranking and tiers of new coaches and how likely they are to make the playoffs this season:

Hafley might be a good coach but we’re unlikely to see that this season. The Dolphins’ roster is as bad as it gets. Nothing against Hafley, but even Vince Lombardi wouldn’t have gotten the 2026 Dolphins into the playoffs.

The Cardinals have a bad roster and the toughest schedule in the NFL, based on opponents’ win totals. Good luck to LaFleur, who should at least run a competent offense with a lot of fun skill-position players (though, LaFleur didn’t help himself when he overworked rookie running back Jeremiyah Love in his first preseason game, leading to a high ankle sprain). But playoffs? No. Especially not in the NFC West.

Monken almost made the “no chance” list, but the Browns have some good talent sprinkled around the roster. It’s just the horrific quarterback situation that will hold them back. It’s hard to buy a team starting Deshaun Watson to begin the season will be in the playoffs. Still, we could see the Browns be competitive, perhaps even winning enough games to knock them out of a chance to get one of the top QBs in the 2027 NFL Draft. Sigh.

The Titans made a bad decision to keep Brian Callahan around too long, leading to a lost season in Cam Ward’s rookie year. The Titans spent a ton in free agency and who knows, if Ward makes a big leap maybe this team can be what the Jaguars were last season. Probably not but there are reasons to believe in a significant improvement, if Ward plays better than he did in the preseason.

Like the Titans, the Raiders made some terrible decisions last year and it led to a waste of a season. But they somehow landed Kubiak, one of the hot names in this offseason’s cycle, and upgraded the roster with free agents and rookie quarterback Fernando Mendoza. It’s hard to pick the Raiders to finish anywhere but last in the AFC West, but they’ll be a lot better.

Anyone playing in the NFC South has a shot to make the playoffs. Eight wins got it done last season and that might be the case again this season. The Falcons certainly have plenty of questions, starting at quarterback, but Stefanski is a good coach. The quarterback situation looks really bad, but if Stefanski can fix that to some extent a postseason spot for Atlanta is possible.

Mike Tomlin dragged this team to winning seasons when it had no business being above .500. Maybe McCarthy does the same, though there are plenty of concerns throughout an aging roster. But McCarthy has to rank fairly high here, considering the Steelers won 10 games last season.

Mike McCarthy takes over as the Steelers head coach this season. (Photo by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images)

A lot of times, breakouts with first-year head coaches look like the 2026 Giants. They have a good amount of young talent, including a fun second-year quarterback in Jaxson Dart. They were underachieving with the old staff. In steps Harbaugh, who has a Hall of Fame-level résumé. The Giants have a long way to go, but would it really surprise anyone to see Harbaugh do a great job, get the Giants to the playoffs and win NFL Coach of the Year again? It shouldn’t.

For the top two on this list, it would be a surprise if they didn’t make the playoffs as rookie head coaches. The Ravens missed out last season, but would have gotten in if a field goal on the final play of the season hadn’t gone wide right. Lamar Jackson’s health could end up being an issue again, but he’s still one of the best players in the NFL and the supporting cast is good enough to win the AFC North. Minter, a fantastic young defensive mind, is under some pressure right away because if the Ravens don’t make the playoffs, fingers will point at him.

The Bills have won double-digit games and made the playoffs each of the past seven seasons. Brady was handed the keys to a sports car. And he also has familiarity with the roster, led by Josh Allen, because he was promoted from offensive coordinator. It’s the rare case where Brady can take his team to an AFC East championship his first season and he’s still very unlikely to win Coach of the Year. A division title is the expectation. Anything short of a Super Bowl trip would be a disappointment. There’s no question Brady had to be No. 1 on this list. If the Bills don’t make it, his seat will be hot immediately. No pressure, Joe.