The team currently most likely to win the 2026 WNBA Finals according to Opta

The WNBA regular season is due to come to a close next week, with the playoffs getting underway almost immediately afterwards.

The Las Vegas Aces won the 2025 WNBA Finals after they beat the Phoenix Mercury 4-0, and the Aces are once again having a strong campaign, sitting third in the league table at the time of writing.

A’ja Wilson is also impressing again and has the highest average in the league right now. Yet the Aces are not currently given the highest chance of winning this year’s WNBA Finals by Opta.

Instead, their supercomputer, which is updated after each game, says that the Golden State Valkyries are the most likely team to become champions.

Golden State Valkyries favourites to win WNBA Finals

Opta give the Valkyries a 28.1% chance of winning this year’s finals, while the 2025 winners are the second most likely team to do so (14.7%)

The Minnesota Lynx, who are first in the WNBA table right now, then have the third highest chance of winning the Finals (14.5%).

The Indiana Fever (13.1%) and the Atlanta Dream (12.6%) round out the top five.

There is then quite a significant drop-off, with the Dallas Wings having the sixth-highest chance of emerging from 2026 as champions (7.9%).

As for the other two playoff teams, the New York Liberty rank seventh (6.2% chance) followed by the Washington Mystics (2.9%).

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