The numbers say Blake Grupe. The pressure kicks say Spencer Shrader for Colts kicker

INDIANAPOLIS – Anyone who tells you numbers don’t lie isn’t in charge of deciding what to do with the Indianapolis Colts‘ kicker competition this preseason.

Because the numbers – Blake Grupe‘s 87.2% average over the course of four weeks of training camp and preseason games, versus Spencer Shrader (70.8%), or Grupe’s advantage kicking from 50-plus yards (66.67% versus 31.25%) and 49 yards and in (96.88% vs. 90.63%) – paint the picture of a battle that should be just about settled. Wait another week to part ways with the loser on roster cutdown day if you must, but it would be tough to imagine not picking Grupe.

Except … it’s just not that simple. Special teams coordinator Brian Mason told us that earlier this month.

“We’re going to be looking at the big picture: Who gives us the best opportunity to kick best in preseason games? Who continues to get better and looks the best and is progressing the best to be the absolute best in the regular season?” Mason told reporters Aug. 4 as he laid out his evaluation process that would help decide the second-most watched and discussed roster battle in training camp.

“We’re not judging who’s the best kicker in the first two weeks,” he added four days later. “We’re judging who is the best kicker to take us through the regular season that gives us the best chance to score points and win games.”

And after an immensely rough first two weeks of camp — Shrader was 20-of-30 in his four days of in-practice kicks heading into the team’s trip to New England – the third-year placekicker, who is 10 months removed from a devastating knee injury where he tore the ACL and MCL in his kicking leg in Week 5, has not only all but leveled the score but come through when it has mattered most.

In the kicks Mason would weigh most heavily – ones attempted in a actual game, preseason as it may be – Shrader is a perfect 3-for-3 with makes from 48, 53 and 61 yards. His challenger, Grupe, has missed both of his in-game attempts – including a disastrous shank from 36 yards Saturday, marking the shortest kick either of the Colts‘ placekickers have missed in view of the public since training camp opened July 29.

Whatever Shrader was working through in those first two weeks – where virtually every kick he missed was pulled left – seems to have been, if not fixed entirely, at least gotten ahold of. His misses, if they happen, still trend that way, but the volume and percentage as altered considerably.

“Ironing things out for sure,” Shrader told reporters post-game Saturday. “If something’s happening consistently over and over again, there’s usually a root cause. You just try to diagnose the issue and keep it from happening.

“I haven’t felt stuck. It’s just felt like it’s all been part of the learning process and growth process. Just trying to turn a new leaf every single day and get better and better. I’m just continuing to build on positive momentum and find the good moments when you can. I think I’ve built on a couple good practices now where I’ve had some consistency, so I’m just trying to figure out what works and continue to do that in the games.”

Part of that process, Shrader said, is treating practices – whatever format they’re held and whatever manner his kick attempts in them come – the same as preseason games, so whenever his number is called, the pressure all feels the same.

“Obviously, if I’m not performing well in practice, I feel that going into the game, but I also understand that it’s a new day, and you can’t let negative events of the past bleed into what you’re experiencing now,” Shrader said. “Throughout camp, I’ve had a lot of ups and downs, and I’ve just tried to learn from all the downs and then keep building toward having success.

“And getting back in Lucas Oil, it’s a great environment, because it feels like a legitimate gameday. For me, preseason games feel like exactly the same as regular season games. I get nervous for them both, so it’s good for me to get some confidence and just keep doing my best every single day and keep chipping away.”

One day of camp, in particular, seemed to set Shrader back. After the pair finished the first day of kicking in front of the team pretty tight – a perfect 6-for-6 for Grupe and 5-for-6 from Shader – the pair alternated days Aug. 3 and 4, then both kicked during the team’s night practice Aug. 6 and alternated days once more that weekend. Over the course of 24 kicks, Grupe missed three times (87.5%) with those wayward kicks coming from 53, 58 and 61 yards.

Shrader finished 15-for-24 (62.5%) with misses all across the board: 41, 45, 50, 52, 53, 55 (twice), 57 and 61 yards.

At that point, it was hard to imagine that margin could be overcome over the course of just two weeks, and yet, Shrader has cut more than eight percentage points off Grupe’s lead from an accuracy standpoint over the entire four weeks, and their success over the last two weeks (77.78% for Shrader and 82.35% for Grupe) is as close as you can get. Both have two makes from 50-plus yards over that span (across five attempts for Shrader and four for Grupe).

Shrader’s worst miss over that span – a 41-yarder last weekend – is not only from farther out than Grupe’s (36 yards) on Saturday, but the idea that the latter missed that shorter one so definitively in a more pressure-packed situation will undoubtedly factor into Mason’s calculus, too.

Both players, Mason and Colts head coach Shane Steichen have said throughout training camp, will find themselves on rosters in the NFL in 2026. One of them, though, won’t be in Indianapolis.

“(That battle) is ongoing,” Steichen said. “We’ve got a lot of belief and faith in both of those guys, so we’ll keep that going.

“It’s going to be a big decision for us.”

Joel A. Erickson and Nathan Brown cover the Colts all season. Get more coverage on IndyStarTV and with the Colts Insider newsletter.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: The numbers say Blake Grupe. The pressure kicks say Spencer Shrader for Colts kicker