The Numbers Game: New-look Newcastle and Liverpool face off at St. James’ Park

Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.

It has been a summer of change for both Newcastle United and Liverpool, and fittingly, these two clubs go head-to-head to kickstart their 2026-27 Premier League campaigns.

Liverpool made the call quickly on sacking Arne Slot at the end of last season, and they swiftly made a move to replace him with Andoni Iraola, one of the Premier League’s most impressive managers of recent seasons.

But perhaps no Premier League side has had as much upheaval to deal with as Newcastle.

Eddie Howe looked set to take Newcastle into another season, but at the end of July, he decided to step down.

Matthias Jaissle is the man tasked with replacing Howe, but he also has to oversee a big rebuild.

Anthony Gordon left for Barcelona, Sandro Tonali was sold to Tottenham, and then, captain fantastic Bruno Guimaraes departed for Arsenal.

Just a heartfelt thank you to the fans, Eddie Howe and his staff, all the players, directors, owners and everyone who works at the club for a period filled with happiness and achievements.

It was beautiful to live these nearly five years with you all. … pic.twitter.com/sJjTvyCuWb

— Bruno Guimarães (@brunoog97) August 8, 2026

Those three sales brought in over £200million in transfer fees, but with stalwart Kieran Trippier having also left, this is a big job on Jaissle’s hands.

Here, using Opta data and insights, we preview the headline fixture of matchday one of the Premier League season.

One thing you can usually guarantee when Newcastle face Liverpool is goals.

There have been 198 goals scored in Premier League meetings between Newcastle and Liverpool, and with two goals in this game it would be the third fixture to reach 200 in the competition, after Liverpool v Tottenham (211) and Arsenal v Spurs (200).

Well, Newcastle are winless in their last 19 Premier League games against the Reds (D5 L14). Only against Manchester City have they ever gone 20+ consecutive meetings without a victory against an opponent in the competition (22 between February 2006 and September 2018).

And Liverpool have not lost any of their last nine Premier League games against Newcastle at St. James’ Park (W6 D3) and could equal the longest unbeaten run by a team away to the Magpies in the competition here: 10 games by Man City (March 2007 – December 2017).

So, it is no surprise to see that Opta’s supercomputer is backing Liverpool to win here.

The Reds came out on top in 50.2% of the model’s pre-match data-led simulations.

Newcastle have a 25.4% win probability, with the draw coming in at 24.4%.

New-look Newcastle need a good start

It has not been all about selling for Newcastle. They have invested in their team, too. 

Two goalkeepers – Ewen Jaouen and Lukas Hornicek have arrived for just under £45m combined – while Sean Steur and Aladji Bamba have strengthened the midfield options.

Bazoumana Toure has been their standout addition for a reported £42.8m. They also brought in right-back Amar Dedic from Benfica, but it still feels like they are going into the season short, especially having lost so much top-level experience. They are reportedly aiming to sign Man City’s Nico Gonzalez.

“Amar is a perfect addition to the squad, he is versatile in his approach and our playing style. A good fit, especially given our time together at Salzburg. I am confident he is ready.” pic.twitter.com/SclKdRJY8Y

— Newcastle United (@NUFC) August 20, 2026

Jaissle, at least, does have a strong record when it comes to his first games in charge of clubs.

He won his first game at each of his three previous clubs (Liefering, Salzburg and Al-Ahli).

His Al-Ahli side were also unbeaten at home in the Saudi Pro League last season (W14 D3), winning the last 13 in a row.

And he will be desperate for a strong start on home soil, where Newcastle do have a good recent record.

Newcastle have both scored (14 goals) and conceded (13) in each of their last seven Premier League games at St. James’ Park.

Their record home run of both scoring and conceding in the competition is eight games, set three times previously, most recently in April 2021.

And another good sign for Newcastle is they have not lost their opening league game in any of the last four seasons (W3 D1) since losing 4-2 to West Ham in 2021-22. They last had a longer unbeaten run in their opening game between 1972-73 and 1977-78 (six straight).

Liverpool are also going through something of a rebuild. Mohamed Salah, Andy Robertson and Ibrahima Konate have departed, while Curtis Jones looks like he is on his way to Inter.

Ronald Araujo has come in from Barcelona on loan, and Jeremy Jacquet is now officially a Liverpool player. The Reds also beat Newcastle to the signing of winger Víctor Munoz, though Iraola still wants more.

Liverpool pipping Newcastle to signings has been a theme of recent transfer windows, and that rather came to a head in the corresponding fixture at St. James’ Park last season.

Long-standing Newcastle target Hugo Ekitike scored twice in a dramatic 3-2 win for Liverpool, who then went and spent a then British transfer record fee on Alexander Isak.

Ekitike will not be fit to feature on Sunday, while Isak endured an injury-hit season last term and scored only three Premier League goals.

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) August 20, 2026

And while Liverpool will be keen to bolster Iraola’s squad, there will be an onus on the Spaniard to get the best out of what he has got.

Iraola is, after all, on the longest current unbeaten run of any manager in the Premier League (last 18 games of 2025-26 with Bournemouth), while he has also never lost any of his six meetings with Newcastle in the competition (W3 D3).

Iraola’s Bournemouth topped last season’s Premier League for direct attacks (83), with no side scoring more direct-attack goals than them (six), so Liverpool fans will be hoping to see plenty of front-footed football.

However, Liverpool lost nine Premier League away games last season – including four of their last five. It was their most away defeats in a league campaign since 2011-12 (10).

But the Reds are unbeaten in their first Premier League match in the last 13 seasons (W10 D3) since losing 3-0 to West Brom in 2012-13. It is the longest current ongoing run and the longest since Chelsea went 18 seasons without losing the opener between 1999-00 and 2016-17.

Newcastle United – Bazoumana Toure

With Gordon gone, Newcastle turned to the Bundesliga for his replacement, spending big to bring in 20-year-old Toure.

The winger registered 14 goal involvements (five goals, nine assists) for Hoffenheim last season, while he led the Bundesliga club for chances created from open play (44).

With Liverpool’s defence not looking particularly solid through pre-season, Toure will be hoping to make a sharp start to his Premier League career.

It would be fair to say Isak’s first season at Liverpool, which was interrupted by several injuries, did not go to plan.

However, he has a World Cup campaign and a pre-season under his belt, and he will be expected to hit the ground running.

Isak is set to make his first Premier League appearance against his former club.

Only 10 players (and none for Liverpool) have ever scored on MD1 of a Premier League season against a side they previously played for in the competition, including Andy Cole against the Magpies for Manchester United in 2000-01.

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