The Numbers Game: England bid to equal away-day record against old foes Croatia

Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.

England and Croatia have become very familiar foes in recent years.

Luka Modric and company were responsible for the first heartbreaking tournament defeat of the Gareth Southgate era in 2018, with Ivan Perisic and Mario Mandzukic scoring to cancel out Kieran Trippier’s memorable free-kick.

Since then, the Three Lions have started two tournaments – Euro 2020 and the 2026 World Cup – with victories over Croatia, and Saturday’s reunion in Rijeka may be pivotal for both teams.

Having both beaten Czechia and lost to Spain in their opening two games in Nations League Group A3, their head-to-head clashes could decide who progresses to the last eight next March.

But who will come out on top this weekend? Here, we preview the game using Opta insights.

— England (@England) September 30, 2026

The Opta supercomputer is siding with England ahead of this game, albeit not decisively.

Across 10,000 pre-match simulations run by the Opta model, the Three Lions triumphed in 48.6% of scenarios, with Croatia winning 27.4% and the remaining 24% of simulations finishing level.

And if you look past that 2018 semi-final defeat, an England win would continue a theme of dominance in recent head-to-head meetings with Croatia.

Since that game in Moscow, Croatia are winless in all four of their meetings with the Three Lions (D1 L3), including two Nations League fixtures in 2018 (0-0 home, 1-2 away).

In fact, England have won five of their last seven matches against Croatia in all competitions (D1 L1), dating back to a 3-2 defeat in 2007, which cost them qualification for Euro 2008.

The Three Lions have scored at least four goals in three of those wins, triumphing 4-1 in September 2008, 5-1 in September 2009 and 4-2 at the World Cup this June.

Following nine years under Zlatko Dalic, Slaven Bilic made a winning return to the Croatia job against Czechia last weekend, with Modric and Marco Pasalic scoring in a 2-1 away win.

But they were then blown away by Spain in Seville on Tuesday, losing 4-1 after briefly getting back on level terms in the first half, via Dion Beljo’s first international goal. 

Croatia could have no complaints about their margin of defeat, having only attempted five shots to Spain’s 16 and put up 0.47 expected goals (xG) to their opponents’ 1.81.

They have only produced a lower xG figure in three previous Nations League fixtures – versus France in March 2025 (0.18), Sweden in November 2020 (0.3) and England in October 2018 (0.42).

 Another practice session in Seville, then the flight to Rijeka! 

— HNS (@HNSfamily) September 30, 2026

After that reality check, Croatia have now lost five of their 10 matches overall in 2026 (W5). 

It is only the third time they have suffered that many defeats in a single calendar year (also 2018 and 2020), though they have never previously lost six in one year.

They will hope a return to home soil at Stadion HNK in Rijeka provides some comfort, having won eight of their last nine competitive home matches (D1) since a 1-0 loss to Turkiye in a Euro 2024 qualifier back in October 2023.

However, despite Croatia only losing four of their last 41 competitive games at home, three of those losses have been in the Nations League, against France and Portugal in 2020 and Austria in 2022.

Will Tuchel experiment with away-day record in sight?

Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane were on target on Tuesday as England, helped by a first-half red card for Czechia midfielder Pavel Sulc, emerged as 2-0 victors in Prague.

That win was England’s sixth in their last eight Nations League matches (L2) across the top two tiers, having scored 20 goals in that span. That is more victories and goals than they managed in their first 18 games in the competition overall (W5 D6 L7, 18 goals).

It was also England’s eighth straight away win in all competitions, giving them an opportunity to match an all-time team record this weekend.

Only once have they ever won nine away games in a row, doing so under World Cup-winning manager Alf Ramsey between December 1965 and October 1967.

It will be intriguing to see how Tuchel approaches his team choice for this game, after he handed Trent Alexander-Arnold his first England start since October 2024 – in a Nations League win over Finland under Lee Carsley – at right-back.

— England (@England) September 30, 2026

Alexander-Arnold teed up Gordon’s opening goal with a trademark delivery to the far post, which was also his first assist in international football since that Finland game two years ago.

Tuchel had gone with the more conservative option of Jarell Quansah on the right side of defence against Spain, but with Alexander-Arnold ranking second among England players for chances created (three, behind Gordon with four) and passes into the final third (32, behind Elliot Anderson with 40), might the England boss favour his creativity from deep areas? 

74% – England have won 74.1% of the matches Trent Alexander-Arnold has started for England (20/27). Of players to start 25+ games in England’s history, only Marcus Rashford has a better win percentage (77%, won 27/35).

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 29, 2026

He also has options in midfield after handing Myles Lewis-Skelly back-to-back starts in the absence of his Arsenal club-mate Declan Rice, with Alex Scott winning his first senior cap in Prague and Morgan Gibbs-White making another lively cameo appearance. 

Perisic, who provided a goal and an assist against England the 2018 World Cup semi-finals, has started both of Croatia’s games during this international break.

The 37-year-old has 15 goal involvements in his last 18 starts for Croatia, netting six times and registering nine assists.

Kane – who smacked a penalty off the crossbar after losing his footing in England’s loss to Spain – has enjoyed playing on the road lately.

The England captain has found the net in each of his last five away internationals. 

He could now become just the fourth player to score in six consecutive away games for the Three Lions, after James Windridge (six from March to June 1908), Tom Finney (seven from September 1946 to May 1948) and Stan Mortensen (six from May 1947 to October 1948).

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