Scouting the prospects traded to Detroit for Tarik Skubal

On Saturday night, just a little before midnight, Jeff Passan of ESPN broke the news that the Detroit Tigers and the Los Angeles Dodgers were finalizing a trade for ace left-hander, Tarik Skubal. In return, the Tigers receive 21-year-old corner outfielder, Zyhir Hope, 28-year-old right-hander River Ryan, and 21-year-old right-handed pitcher Brady Smith.

First reaction? This is a pretty good return, but the Dodgers managed to hold back their top couple of prospects. That’s alright, as they were loaded with top 100 prospects, but you can’t call this a fleecing of their system by any means. It’s just a good return in the range we expected. I would’ve preferred outfielder Mike Sirota instead of Hope, and I would’ve love to land right-handed pitching prospect Christian Zazueta rather than River Ryan or Brady Smith, but we’re splitting hairs to a degree. The Tigers got three talented players here, two of whom are comfortably top 100 caliber talents, with Smith as a fast-rising, but still young, pitching prospect. The main issue overall is that the two pitchers acquired have a lot to prove yet in terms of durability, and come with a lot of relief risk.

Let’s take a deeper look at all three players coming back to Detroit.

We’ll start with Ryan, because he’s the one who can potentially help the Tigers this season. The 28-year-old was one of the top pitching prospects in baseball back in 2024, when he blew out his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. Ryan returned in 2026, but suffered a hamstring injury in April that cost him a month. He again injured the right hamstring in late June and is currently on the injured list but expected to return this season.

Ryan’s fourseam fastball averaged 97.6 mph this season with average extension. His best fastball of the year topped out at 100.9 mph. The movement profile looks a bit pedestrian and may need some tweaking, but it’s been better in the past and as he’s just returning from major arm surgery, he might just need some time to dial that back in.

His most used secondary pitch is a power slider at 91-92 mph. He also uses a sinker, cutter, curveball, and will flash a quality changeup as well, though it isn’t consistent. Ryan gets a lot of ground balls, rarely gives up homers at the Triple-A level, and throws plenty of strikes. His walk rates have been consistently solid, although it’s more control than high end command.

The big issue, and the reason this is a particularly risky acquisition, is Ryan’s injury history and minimal pitching experience considering his age. A middle infielder and closer at UNC-Pembroke, the Padres drafted him in the 11th round back in 2021. The Padres scout who signed him came to work for the Dodgers, and convinced them to acquire Ryan in trade, which they quickly did. His development in the Dodgers organization was rapid as he became a notable prospect and a priority for the first time. He was quickly throwing three breaking balls that flashed plus as well as a developing changeup. However, the Dodgers were pretty careful with his in-game workload early on, and Ryan averaged about 100 innings in 2022 and 2023, with very good results. However, as they let him stretch out in his outings in 2024, Ryan had a little shoulder trouble. He made four starts for the Dodgers in 2024 with solid results, but ultimately blew out the UCL and didn’t return until this spring.

So, there’s a ton of upside, but plenty of risk here as well. There are some who think Ryan would be better served as a closer. Others think the starting upside is high enough to stick with it. We’ll see how the Tigers handle him, but Ryan is undeniably quite talented. Were everything to finally break right for him, Ryan has ace potential. There are just way too many question marks to expect that much right now.

This 21-year-old, left-handed hitting outfielder has pretty huge secondary tools, but questions about the swing and miss have kept him in the 50 FV tier per most top public evaluators, though others like MLB Pipeline have a 55 FV on him, currently ranking him the 25th best prospect in baseball.

Hope was drafted in the 11th round out of Colonial Forge High School in Virginia by the Chicago Cubs, getting roughly fifth round money to pass on his college commitment to North Carolina. The Dodgers acquired him in a trade for outfielder Michael Busch in the 2023-2024 offseason.

Initially, Hope drew pretty average power grades but he quickly added a lot of muscle and batspeed, and currently draws 65-70 grades for his raw power, essentially double plus or very close to it. He has enough footspeed to play center field, but he profiles better in right field, where his strong left arm was enough to get him scouted as a pitcher as well as an outfielder in high school.

Hope is currently playing his first full season at the Double-A level for the Tulsa Drillers, where he has 23 home runs in 425 plate appearances, with 18 steals, a 10.6 percent walk rate, and a 24.9 percent strikeout rate. While the Texas League can elevate home run totals, the power here is extremely legit, and Hope’s short-levered swing has some natural loft that helps him cash in on his power with a lot of regularity.

His swinging strike rate is just a little bit on the high side, but nothing egregious, and he makes a solid amount of contact. Hope hangs in there pretty well against left-handed pitchers, and his quick hands allow him to square up balls in all parts of the zone. The Tigers will want him to be a little more selectively aggressive as he continues to face tougher pitching, but Hope has developed quite rapidly, so the development curve is decisively headed in the right direction.

You could argue for Bryce Rainer, but Hope will draw plenty of consideration as the Tigers new top prospect once Max Clark officially graduates.

The 21-year-old Smith was the Dodgers third round pick in the 2023 draft out of Grainger HS in Tennessee. He immediately blew out his UCL after the draft, got Tommy John surgery, and didn’t debut until 2025, when he threw 21 innings with some control issues. This season, he dominated Low-A ball with a 37.5 percent strikeout rate with solid but unspectacular walk and home run marks allowed. He was recently promoted to the High-A level.

Currently, Smith’s fastball sits 93-96 mph, topping out at 98 mph with quality riding action. His best pitch is a nasty mid-80’s changeup that draws tons of whiffs in the low minors and will play even better if Smith’s fastball command continues to improve on the track it has this season. The changeup really falls straight off the table, and he tunnels it beautifully off the riding fourseamer.

Smith presents an athletic delivery with a quick arm, which bodes well both for developing command, but also for selling the changeup. He also has some physical projection remaining. His breaking stuff is still more of a work in progress. He has a high 70’s curveball that works well as an occasional strike stealer. His high-80’s slider and low 90’s cutter both flash above average but will need to be more consistent.

There’s a lot to like here. I would’ve preferred Christian Zazueta, partly just for major league proximity, but Smith has frontline starter upside if everything goes well. More likely, he develops into a mid-rotation starter who has the weapons to handle all types of hitter. Until he proves he can hold up to a starter’s workload, there is still a good amount of relief risk, however. He wasn’t that highly ranked coming into the season after the Tommy John surgery, but he’s been shooting up national rankings as a result of his performance this season.