Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Kent State

College football has evolved so rapidly over the last several years, and there are an increasing variety of ways to break down any given Saturday.

Here on Scarlet Spreadsheet, we are going to compile all of the various analytical models to get the best possible preview of each of Ohio State’s matchups throughout the 2026 season based on the underlying numbers and metrics.

The Buckeyes will be looking to bounce back this weekend after a brutal loss to Texas in a game they once led 23-3. Kent State likely won’t provide much in terms of resistance, but they should provide another opportunity for Ohio State to figure out its depth chart and what Ryan Day wants his team to be moving forward.

• FPI: 30.4 (Rank: 1)

• Proj. W-L: 10.2-2.5

• Win Out %: 25.9

• 6 Wins %: 99.8

• Win Conf. %: 50.0

• CFP %: 74.6

• Make NC %: 27.3

• Win NC %: 16.5

• FPI: -21.2 (Rank: 136)

• Proj. W-L: 3.8-8.2

• Win Out %: 0

• 6 Wins %: 14.4

• Win Conf. %: 0.2

• CFP %: 0

• Make NC %: 0

• Win NC %: 0

• Rank: No. 2

• Rating: 29.2

• Offense: 39.5 (4th)

• Defense: 10.3 (1st)

• Special Teams: 0.1 (67th)

• Rank: No. 133

• Rating: -21.5

• Offense: 15.2 (127th)

• Defense: 36.2 (128th)

• Special Teams: -0.5 (121st)

: Ohio Sate

• Projected Margin: 53.2 points

• Win Probability: 100%

• Projected Score (rounded): 53-0

• Ohio State: 28.63 (1st)

• Texas: -20.31 (136th)

• Matchup Prediction: Ohio State (1) will beat Kent State (136) by 51.8 at home (100% chance)

Matchup Prediction: Ohio State (1) will beat Kent State (136) by 51.8 at home (100% chance)

• Ohio State: 8.94 (6th)
  • Offense: 68.02 (6th)

  • Defense: 45.01 (1st)

• Kent State: 6.19 (136th)

  • Offense: 46.13 (133rd)

  • Defense: 17.69 (138th)

• Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 52, Kent State 3 (100% win probability)

Matchup Prediction: Ohio State 52, Kent State 3 (100% win probability)

Ohio State Offense vs. Kent State Defense

Kent State Offense vs. Ohio State Defense

• How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation

• Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position

  • A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20

• EPA is probability-based, not exact

  • An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points

  • On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation

• EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring

How many points an offense is expected to score on a drive given the current situation

Value is primarily driven by down, distance and field position

A five-yard gain on 3rd-and-4 is worth more than a five-yard gain on 3rd-and-20

EPA is probability-based, not exact

• An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points

• On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation

An EPA of 1.2 does not mean a team will score 1.2 points

On average, a team will score 1.2 points on that drive in that situation

EPA measures how much a single play changes an offense’s chance of scoring

Measured from starting field position to end zone

A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends at the opponent 40-yard line = 50%

A drive that starts on the 20-yard line and ends in a touchdown = 100%

Ohio State has won each of the three all-time meetings between these two teams, having out-scored Kent State 165-20 across the trio of victories.

The closest game between these two programs came in 2007, when the Buckeyes won 48-3.

The last time Ohio State played Kent State was in 2014, with a final score of 66-0.

Ohio State is 40-1 all-time vs. current members of the MAC and is riding a 37-game unbeaten streak.

As the season goes along the Scarlet Spreadsheet for each Ohio State game will include up-to-date in-season models and analytics, breaking down each matchup down to the numbers and underlying metrics.