Preposterously Early Best Case, Worst Case, And Most Likely Scenarios for Wisconsin Men’s Basketball

The Big Ten opponents have dropped for Greg Gard’s 2026-27 Wisconsin Badgers, and game one is just over four months away, so the doldrums of early summer seem like a perfect time for a ridiculously premature series of guesses about how the upcoming season will go.

Greg Gard doesn’t rebuild, he reloads.

So, in this optimistic scenario, losing John Blackwell (Duke) and Nick Boyd (NBA, maybe) is but a mere flesh wound for the Badgers.

New addition Eian Elmer slots right in as a reliable scorer and adds a slashing element to his game that wasn’t developed at Miami of Ohio. Nolan Winter emerges as a legitimate team leader and all-Big Ten level talent. And new point guard Owen Foxwell brings a steady hand to run the offense. Meanwhile, Austin Rapp builds on his late-season success to become a consistent double-figure scoring option with an improved defensive game.

If young horses like Zach Kinziger and Hayden Jones step up, and Trey Autry finds another gear that takes him beyond a (largely) 3 and D threat, Wisconsin could be in business.

Of course, there are a lot of “ifs” here, which is why it’s a Best Case. If everything falls into place, Wisconsin is a top-four Big Ten squad and finally makes a Sweet 16, Hallelujah!

Wisconsin Men’s Basketball tends to be largely immune from these scenarios, but I’ll complete the exercise anyway.

Here, the transfer portal talent simply doesn’t hit its ceiling. There are injury issues that go beyond a couple of weeks here and there, and the all-important team chemistry, a key element for Greg Gard teams to succeed, falls short.

Without the alphas it had last season in Boyd and Blackwell, this squad can’t close out top teams and sinks to the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, missing out on an NCAA bid, even with an expanded March Madness field. 

For what it’s worth, I believe the Best Case is more apt to happen than the Worst Case. Which brings us to…

Even with the loss of two all-conference level talents, along with another starter, the Badgers appear to be in good shape personnel-wise as we hit summer.

I really liked the Elmer addition and believe that Winter has a ton in the tank that we have not yet seen. He might be one of the most underrated players in the Big Ten.

But keep your eye on Rapp. I think his season-to-season growth may be the biggest X factor for Wisconsin. If he emerges into a reliable 13 points-per-game dude with good shooting and competent to solid defense, it bodes very well for this team.

Yes, this group has more question marks than some Badger teams in the recent past, but I can’t find a good reason to doubt that Gard will push the right buttons. I think them ending up in the top half of the Big Ten with a 7 to 10 NCAA Tourney seed feels about right.

As for how far they’ll go, every year is a crapshoot, but a first-round loss, Round of 32, or Sweet 16 is the (wide) likely range of outcomes. I’ll certainly revisit this a few more times in the coming months.