Sports

Prediction: Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Nairavoice · Sep 10, 2026 · 5 min read

Real Madrid and Rayo Vallecano will meet at Santiago Bernabeu on Saturday evening, as both sides continue their 2026/27 La Liga campaign.

Madrid comes into the match after beating Inter Milan 2-1 in the Champions League, while Rayo arrives after a 3-2 league win over Racing Santander.

Verdict: Real Madrid to win
Best odds: 3/20
Bookmaker: 1xBet

Real Madrid

Real Madrid needed a response after losing 1-0 to Real Betis, and they got it against Inter in midweek.

The 2-1 Champions League win was not completely comfortable, and Thibaut Courtois had to make several important saves. Still, Madrid found a way to win and avoided turning one bad league result into a negative run.

Their home form is much more convincing. Madrid won their first two La Liga matches at the Bernabeu, including a 4-0 win over Malaga, and they have scored freely when playing in front of their own supporters.

This is a good matchup for them as well. Rayo has conceded 10 goals in four league matches, and they now come to the Bernabeu without several important attacking players.

Madrid should have most of the ball and force Rayo deeper. If they score early, the visitors will have a serious problem because opening up against Mbappe, Vinicius and Bellingham will create even more space.

The Betis defeat showed that Madrid can still struggle when the opponent stays compact and takes its chances. But Rayo’s defensive numbers make that approach much harder to trust here.

Real Madrid Team News

Eder Militao, Ferland Mendy, Raul Asencio, Andriy Lunin and Rodrygo are unavailable.

Jose Mourinho has more options in midfield than he had against Inter. Eduardo Camavinga, Bernardo Silva and Arda Guler were suspended for the Champions League match, so all three are available and should be fresh.

Federico Valverde played in midfield against Inter and could keep his place, although Mourinho now has more room to rotate.

Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe should remain central to the attack. Vinicius Junior is also expected to start, while Guler could return on the right after missing the European match.

Rayo Vallecano

Rayo finally got their first league win of the season against Racing Santander, but even that match showed some of their problems.

They won 3-2 after Sergio Camello scored twice, but the game became chaotic late on. Fran Perez and Jorge de Frutos were both sent off, which means Rayo now goes to the Bernabeu without two regular options on the right side.

Their season has already produced plenty of goals. Rayo has scored seven times in four matches, but they have also conceded 10. They lost 5-2 to Barcelona and have kept only one clean sheet.

That makes this a dangerous match for them. Rayo usually tries to play with courage, and Benat San Jose has made it clear that he does not want to completely change the team’s identity just because the opponent is stronger.

The problem is that Madrid can punish that approach. If Rayo presses high or pushes the full-backs forward, Madrid will get the spaces they want.

Rayo has made this matchup difficult in recent seasons, but they come into this one with too many missing players. They need another big game from Camello and a much better defensive performance to have a chance.

Rayo Vallecano Team News

Jorge de Frutos and Fran Perez are suspended after their red cards against Racing Santander.

Augusto Batalla, Luiz Felipe and Jozhua Vertrouwd are also unavailable, while Isi Palazon has been dealing with a muscular injury.

Randy Nteka is another injury concern, while Ivan Balliu has been struggling with fitness. Marash Kumbulla has recovered and should be available again.

Sergio Camello should lead the attack after scoring twice against Racing. He has now scored in consecutive league matches and is one of Rayo’s main hopes at the Bernabeu.

Alvaro Garcia and Giorgi Tsitaishvili could play around him, while Unai Lopez and Oscar Valentin should have important roles in midfield.

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano key factors to consider

Real Madrid has nine points from their first four La Liga matches.
Madrid suffered their first league defeat against Real Betis last weekend.
They responded by beating Inter Milan 2-1 in the Champions League.
Rayo has four points from their opening four league matches.
Rayo beat Racing Santander 3-2 in their last match.
Rayo has scored seven goals and conceded 10 in La Liga this season.
Jorge de Frutos and Fran Perez are suspended for Rayo.
Real Madrid beat Rayo 2-1 at the Bernabeu last season.
Madrid has won the last three league meetings with Rayo at the Bernabeu by a 2-1 scoreline.

Conclusion

Rayo has caused Madrid problems before, and they are capable of scoring. Camello is in good form, and this is a derby where the visitors will have nothing to lose.

Their absences make the situation much more difficult this time. Losing De Frutos and Fran Perez takes away two attacking options, while the injury list gives Benat San Jose even fewer ways to change the match from the bench.

Madrid should also be sharper after the Betis defeat. They responded against Inter, and now they return to a Bernabeu where their attacking performances have been much stronger.

The odds are very short, but the match points clearly toward the home side. Madrid has more quality, Rayo is missing important players and the visitors have already conceded 10 league goals.

Real Madrid to win is the best selection.

Verdict: Real Madrid to win
Best odds: 3/20
Bookmaker: 1xBet

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