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Pirates vs. Yankees prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for July 20

Nairavoice · Jul 20, 2026 · 5 min read

The New York Yankees (55-44) open a three-game series tonight at Yankee Stadium against the Pittsburgh Pirates (52-48). The Yankees enter the game second in the AL East, just 1.5 games behind Tampa Bay, while the Pirates are in the Wild Card race and fourth in the NL Central.

New York salvaged their series finale against the Dodgers, 2-1, last night to avoid a sweep coming out of the All-Star break. The Yankees are 3-2 over their last five games. Pittsburgh arrives in the Bronx after taking a weekend series in Cleveland. The Pirates won Sunday’s finale 7-1 and have gone 4-1 over their last five games.

Braxton Ashcraft is on the mound tonight for the Bucs. He has been one of Pittsburgh’s most reliable starters this season. Through 19 starts he owns a 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, with 128 strikeouts in 113.1 innings. In his most recent start on July 11 against Milwaukee, Ashcraft battled through five innings and earned the win despite allowing five runs on five hits while striking out six. Before that outing, he had allowed just two earned runs across 11.2 innings in road starts against Washington and Philadelphia.

Ryan Weathers takes a 4.15 ERA to the mound tonight for the Yankees. Weathers has struck out 110 batters in 97.2 innings this season. The southpaw was exceptional in his last start, July 10 at Washington, allowing one run on six hits over 5.1 innings. His previous two starts were shakier as he allowed a combined six runs over 5.2 innings.

Ashcraft has to keep the ball in the yard tonight as the Yankees lead baseball with 144 home runs but are hitting a collective .236 (#23 in baseball). The Pirates’ offense is less reliant on the long ball. They lead baseball with a .263 batting average and rank second in runs scored (533). Weathers is just one of a staff full of quality starting pitchers for New York. The Yankees lead baseball with a 3.40 ERA. For reference’s sake, the Pirates rank nineteenth with a 4.26 ERA.

Lets dive further into tonight’s matchup and find a sweat or two.

We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on the how to catch first pitch, odds, recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks & best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.

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Date: Monday, July 20, 2026
Time: 7:05PM EST
Site: Yankee Stadium
City: New York, NY
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Sportsnet Pittsburgh, YES

Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, Sportsnet Pittsburgh, YES

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The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates (-103), New York Yankees (-117)
Spread: Pirates -1.5 (+164), Yankees +1.5 (-200)
Total: 7.5 runs

Moneyline: Pittsburgh Pirates (-103), New York Yankees (-117)

Spread: Pirates -1.5 (+164), Yankees +1.5 (-200)

Pirates: Braxton Ashcraft
Season Totals: 113.1 IP, 9-3, 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 128K, 27 BB
Yankees: Ryan Weathers
Season Totals: 97.2 IP, 3-7, 4.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 110K, 27 BB

Pirates: Braxton Ashcraft
Season Totals: 113.1 IP, 9-3, 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 128K, 27 BB

Yankees: Ryan Weathers
Season Totals: 97.2 IP, 3-7, 4.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 110K, 27 BB

The Pirates’ offense has been one of the hottest in baseball recently, batting .280 with 17 home runs over the last 10 games.
Ben Rice is hitting .395 average with 5 HR and 12 RBI over his last 10 games
Trent Grisham has homered twice in his last 10 games but is hitting just .189 over those 10 games
Esmerlyn Valdez has 6 home runs and 15 RBI over his last 10 games
Ryan O’Hearn is hitting .286 over his last 10 games with a .395 OBP and .545 slugging percentage

The Pirates’ offense has been one of the hottest in baseball recently, batting .280 with 17 home runs over the last 10 games.

Ben Rice is hitting .395 average with 5 HR and 12 RBI over his last 10 games

Trent Grisham has homered twice in his last 10 games but is hitting just .189 over those 10 games

Esmerlyn Valdez has 6 home runs and 15 RBI over his last 10 games

Ryan O’Hearn is hitting .286 over his last 10 games with a .395 OBP and .545 slugging percentage

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The Pirates are 52-48 on the Run Line this season

The Yankees are 47-52 on the Run Line this season

The OVER has cashed 58 times in Pittsburgh’s 100 games this season (58-39-3)

The OVER has cashed 43 times in New York’s 99 games this season (43-52-4)

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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Pirates on the Moneyline.
Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Pirates on the Run Line.
Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the Pirates on the Moneyline.

Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Pirates on the Run Line.

Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total OVER 7.5

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