Pac-12 Preview Series: Can San Diego State Compete at the Top of the New Conference?

The Aztecs enter the Pac-12 as one of the conference’s top contenders, sitting as the No. 2 favorite to win the league at +400, depending on the sportsbook. San Diego State is coming off a very good 9-win season under head coach Sean Lewis, but the big question heading into 2026 is whether the Aztecs can sustain that success against a tougher schedule while replacing a lot of their key pieces.

Unlike the people I’ve spoken to from Boise State and Fresno State, Matteo from the SDSU fan site Sons of Montezuma didn’t seem to have quite as much confidence heading into the season. That being said, Matteo still sees the Aztecs competing at the top of the conference alongside Boise State and Fresno State, while acknowledging the challenges ahead.

San Diego State returns its coaching staff and several important pieces on the offensive side of the ball, but the Aztecs also lost some key players on defense to the transfer portal and NFL Draft. They should once again be a tough, gritty opponent, but there are legitimate questions about whether this team will be quite as good as it was a year ago.

In his second year at the helm, Sean Lewis led San Diego State to a stellar 9-win campaign.

I know what many Coug fans might be thinking: Isn’t that the team I watched get smoked 36-13 in Pullman by Jaxon Potter?

Yes. Obviously.

Perhaps that game tells you something about how much Washington State’s record underperformed its actual level of play, but it also tells you quite a bit about San Diego State.

The Aztecs were an offensively flawed team last season, but their defense carried enough of the weight to keep them moving forward. Against inferior opponents, that defense was good enough to consistently put SDSU in position to win.

After losing to Washington State, San Diego State responded by shutting out Cal 34-0 and embarking on a six-game winning streak. That stretch included a 23-0 shutout of Fresno State, so this wasn’t simply a case of the Aztecs feasting on a weak Mountain West schedule.

At the same time, there were warning signs. SDSU narrowly escaped NIU with a 6-3 victory in Illinois, and when the defense wasn’t creating opportunities or keeping opponents off the scoreboard, the offense struggled to consistently produce.

That is perhaps the biggest question heading into 2026: Can the Aztecs win games if their defense isn’t as dominant?

The biggest reason for optimism is continuity.

Year three of a head coach’s tenure is often when a program begins to take another step forward, and Sean Lewis has now had two years to establish his culture and build the roster he wants in San Diego State.

The Aztecs also return Lucky Sutton, who rushed for 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns last season and is one of the best running backs in the so-called “Group of 6.”

We’ll touch on the quarterback situation in just a minute, but at minimum, SDSU returns its starting play-caller from last season in Jayden Denegal. Denegal was bothered by an injury last season that required surgery after the season, but he comes into fall camp this year completely healthy.

If SDSU can continue to run the ball effectively and its defense remains one of the better units in the conference, there is a path to another strong season. Lewis is certainly on the watchlist for Power 4 programs that might be looking for a new head coach at the end of this season.

Like much of the rest of the Pac-12, San Diego State enters the season with a massive question mark at quarterback.

Jayden Denegal threw for 1,807 yards, nine touchdowns and eight interceptions last season. A 58% completion rate and nearly even touchdown-to-interception ratio aren’t exactly awesome… but Denegal has had an offseason to improve and get healthy.

He will have to make a leap, and there is no doubting his athleticism, if the Aztecs want to contend at the top of the conference.

The Aztecs also have questions at wide receiver. Starting wideouts Jordan Napier and Jacob Bostick are both coming off reconstructive knee surgery, while backup quarterback Bert Emmanuel Jr. is transitioning to receiver in an effort to take advantage of his athleticism.

However, the defense is where SDSU got hit the hardest.

Edge Trey White, an absolute game-wrecker, is off to Texas Tech. Linebacker Owen Chamblis departs for Nebraska, and starting corner Chris Johnson was selected 27th overall in the NFL Draft.

That is elite playmaking at all three levels of the defense that is now gone, and it was a huge part of the Aztecs’ special sauce last season.

Senior linebacker Tan Letuli is also coming off reconstructive knee surgery. SDSU will be asking a lot of edge rusher Nate Henrich, a Division II transfer, and senior linebacker Sione Hala, who comes over from Weber State. On top of that, only one member of last year’s secondary returns in senior Dalesean Staley.

That is a TON of turnover for a defense that was the key to last year’s success.

Can all of those new pieces be awesome? Sure. But it is hard to sell that this group will be as dominant as the defense was last season.

San Diego State is one of the favorites to win the Pac-12, which means Washington State will have to leapfrog the Aztecs if the Cougars want to win the conference and/or make the conference title game.

Fortunately for Cougar fans, this is a matchup that will take place in San Diego.

Washington State will travel to San Diego State on Halloween weekend, and while Snapdragon Stadium isn’t exactly one of the best environments in college football, that doesn’t mean the Cougars can overlook this game.

When John Mateer and the Cougars traveled to San Diego in 2024, the WSU contingent felt more noticeable than the home crowd. The field conditions were also rough, and the ranked Cougars barely escaped with a victory.

So while the atmosphere may not be intimidating, the matchup itself certainly can be.

Of the three games against the top preseason contenders, Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State, this is probably the one Washington State would rather have on the road.

If Kirby Moore could have picked his four conference road trips before the season, this is probably pretty close to how he would have drawn it up.

That doesn’t mean it will be easy.

If San Diego State’s defense can overcome its losses and remain elite, while Lucky Sutton continues to produce and Denegal takes a step forward, the Aztecs have enough talent to make a run at the top of the conference.

But there are enough questions on both sides of the ball to wonder whether last year’s nine-win season is going to be repeated, or whether there is enough there to get over the hump in the Pac-12.

For Washington State, that makes this a massive game. The Cougars shouldn’t expect to rout San Diego State as they did last year; the Aztecs are going to be a very competent and strong opponent, and the returning players will certainly want their revenge.

But if WSU has aspirations of playing in the conference title game, they probably need to get this one done.