Opinion: Tommy McMillen is legit; the UFC’s hype machine is the bigger concern

Tommy McMillen isn’t the first UFC prospect to receive an
early push. | 📷: Jeff Bottari/Getty/UFC

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Aside from the main event of
UFC Oklahoma City, no one generated more conversation from the
event than Tommy
McMillen. In his sophomore
Ultimate Fighting Championship appearance, McMillen set a new
record for significant strikes landed in a three-round contest, his
252 topping the 238 landed by Nate Diaz at
UFC
141. There’s no doubt that’s an impressive number and feat,
enough that Brendan Fitzgerald declared him the “next fighting
superstar.” That’s a hell of a declaration for someone coming off
their second Octagon contest.

Why Tommy McMillen’s UFC record deserves a closer look

Unfortunately, I’m here to be the big, fat, party pooper. Not
because I have anything against McMillen. Not because I think he’s
without talent. It’s because I’ve seen this happen several times
over. Despite that, the UFC never seems to learn its lesson… and
it is often to the detriment of the those they’re pushing into the
spotlight.

First, I should address the times I’ve seen this. The UFC brings in
a young talent that has something about them that could make
them special if they’re able to climb the ranks. Sage
Northcutt was incredibly young and athletic. Paige
VanZant was — and still is — quite the looker. Those are the
two most obvious examples, but there’s several others over the
years that have received a push from the UFC almost
instantaneously, only for them to fade into obscurity just as fast,
if not faster, than they rose. Names like Niklas
Backstrom. Benito
Lopez. Te Edwards.
In some cases, the UFC had the promotional machine behind them even
before winning a fight inside the Octagon.

The routes of Northcutt and VanZant are well known. One would be
forgiven for not knowing Backstrom, Lopez and Edwards, but those
names prove my point. I vividly remember the UFC acting like they
were going to be the future of their respective divisions. They all
had either an impressive UFC debut or performance on
Dana White’s Contender Series before the wheels came off. One
thing that has served as a warning — and it applies to Northcutt
and VanZant as well — is the level of competition they beat.

That isn’t me ripping on the UFC giving them lesser known and
proven talents. The smart thing to do with young talent is to bring
it along slowly. The problem is declaring them special when they
beat someone whom they are not only supposed to beat, but hasn’t
accomplished anything noteworthy themselves. Of all those names,
Northcutt found the most UFC success. His best win? I’d say
Zak
Ottow, a win that was impressive enough to the UFC that they
declined to re-sign him after that victory.

Which comes back around to McMillen. His 252 significant strikes
are impressive; I don’t want to take away from that. But his doing
so against Alberto
Montes isn’t the same as Diaz managing to land 238 against
Donald
Cerrone. Cerrone had established himself as a fan favorite and
borderline contender at that point. Montes hasn’t proved he’s
deserving of his roster spot yet. McMillen’s UFC debut? That came
against Manolo
Zecchini, someone in the running as the worst fighter currently
on the UFC roster.

McMillen’s performance against those fighters offers just as much
reason to be concerned the UFC is putting the cart before the horse
as it does that McMillen is a future star, much less the “next
fighting superstar.” Zecchini managed to find some success with
counters, more than I would have expected for someone as hyped as
McMillen before finding the finish. While McMillen’s stamina and
determination was impressive, his inability to finish someone as
stanky legged as Montes was by the first round is concerning.
Montes, known more for his prowess with the anaconda choke than his
ability to slug it out, managed to stumble McMillen on several
occasions. If McMillen is as good as the hype suggests, he should
have been able to plow through Montes without the adversity he
faced.

The warning signs behind Tommy McMillen’s breakout
performance

I get there’s times where fighters have risen above their abilities
to give problems to the more hyped fighter. Kris
Moutinho winning over the crowd with a spirited performance
against Sean
O’Malley comes to mind. But in that example, Moutinho never
threatened O’Malley. He hung around, but he never threatened him.
O’Malley was crisp in that performance; McMillen was sloppy against
Zecchini and Montes. He did overwhelm them with volume, but a
casual observer should be able to see McMillen’s holes. Unless his
team is working rigorously to address these issues, he’s going to
be exposed sooner rather than later.

There’s another problem that tends to rear its head in these
circumstances. When prospects like McMillen get pumped up by the
likes of the UFC, they tend to start getting a big head. Hell, it
would be hard not to. The problem is, getting a big head makes the
fall that much more difficult to recover from when the drop that
befalls everyone inevitably comes. Bakstrom is a fantastic example
of that. He made a huge splash in beating Tom
Niinimaki in 2014. He was hyped to heaven for his next contest
in his home country of Sweden — he was around -900 — and got
smashed under two minutes in the main card opener. He never
recovered.

It isn’t too hard to figure out. It’s one thing to lose to an
established veteran who has been on the scene and is expected to
give the hyped prospect a stern test. It’s another when that hyped
prospect loses to someone who is supposed to be a steppingstone.
Finding out you aren’t what the UFC and the rest of the world have
been telling you can be extremely jarring. That’s when prospects
end up falling apart.

Unless the UFC is going to slow walk McMillen, he’s highly unlikely
to reach the levels of hype the UFC is surrounding him with. Given
McMillen is already 28, he’s not likely to get the benefit of a
slow walk. Especially when he’s pushing the UFC to throw him in
there with frequency, asking to be on the Noche
UFC 4 card in September. As there’s more film of him, there’s
going to be more chances of him being exposed. I’m not saying
McMillen is a bum. I saw some improvements from McMillen between
the Zecchini and Montes fights. McMillen also has a lot going for
him, including charisma. However, having the UFC hype him up isn’t
one of those things. He’s likely going to have to find out the hard
way.