NFL Week 9 Monday Night Football Best Bets—Bills At Vikings

The 6-1 Buffalo Bills are 3.0-point favorites on the road against the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football, and it should be a fun chess match to cap off Week 9 in the NFL. The Bills have a high-powered offense and a defense that’s played like one of the worst in the NFL this season, and the Vikings have a havoc-causing defense and an offense that’s been stuck in the mud most of the year.

Adding to the intrigue of the contest is Carson Wentz starting for an injured Kyler Murray. The game can go down many paths tonight. Still, a receiving under and a receiving over for two Bills stand out as the most enticing wagers that can come to fruition in any game script for Buffalo.

NFL Week 9: Monday Night Football Best Player Props

• Dalton Kincaid Under 38.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetMGM
• Khalil Shakir Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at FanDuel Sportsbook

Dalton Kincaid (Buffalo Bills – TE)

Among 38 tight ends with at least 100 routes this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks 13th in target share (17.1%), tied for eighth in targets per route run (0.24 TPRR), seventh in first-read rate (21.4%), sixth in air yard share (20.1%), 16th in receptions per game (3.9), fifth in receiving yards per game (57.3), first in yards per route run (2.75 Y/RR), first in yards per target (11.46) and first in yards per reception (14.85). Kincaid is hyper-efficient.

He ranks only 18th in snap share (68.0%) and is tied for 20th in route participation rate (61.6%) from the same sample of tight ends. The fourth-year pro hasn’t been a model of consistency from week to week. Instead, Kincaid has recorded 130, 95, 38, seven, seven, 38 and 86 receiving yards in seven games this season.

So, Kincaid has gone over 38.5 receiving yards only three times this year. He has a brutal matchup this week.

The Vikings rank tied for third in targets allowed per game (5.9), first in receptions allowed per game (3.1), fourth in receiving yards allowed per game (39.0) and 10th in yards allowed per target (6.66) to tight ends this season. Tucker Kraft (65 receiving yards in Week 1), Jonnu Smith (50 receiving yards in Week 1) and Cade Otton (56 receiving yards in Week 3) are the only tight ends to eclipse 38.5 receiving yards against the Vikings this year. So, Minnesota has gone four straight games without allowing over 38.5 receiving yards to a tight end.

Kincaid’s receiving production may also be hurt by the health of Buffalo’s offensive line. Buffalo’s starting left tackle, Dion Dawkins, didn’t practice all week, and their starting left guard, Alec Anderson, missed two practices before logging a limited practice on Saturday. Whether Dawkins or Anderson are out or playing while hurt, the Bills might prefer to use Kincaid, Dawson Knox or Jackson Hawes in pass protection more often than sending them in a route tonight.

As a result, Kincaid is unlikely to clear 38.5 receiving yards tonight.

Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills – WR)

Khalil Shakir has a 63.7% snap share, 68.8% route participation rate, 18.0% target share, 0.23 TPRR, 20.6% first-read rate, 9.6% air yard share, 4.58-yard average depth of target (aDOT), 3.9 receptions per game, 50.6 receiving yards per game, 2.17 Y/RR, 9.57 yards per target and 13.11 yards per reception in seven games this season. Shakir has gone over 38.5 receiving yards four times this year, with a median of 50.

Shakir’s shallow aDOT could be one answer to shield Buffalo’s offensive line. His playing style is also a fit for Minnesota’s defensive tendencies.

The Vikings rank second in zone rate (85.2% versus 73.3% league average), fourth in two-high coverage rate (64.0% versus 50.5% league average) and first in blitz rate (74.2% versus 31.7% league average) this season. Meanwhile, among eight Bills with at least 50 routes this year, Shakir is fourth in targets per route run (0.22) and yards per route run (2.08) on 119 routes against zone coverage, third in targets per route run (0.23) and receiving yards per route run (2.14) on 71 routes against two-high coverage and second in targets per route run (0.29) and first in yards per route run (3.63) on 51 routes against the blitz.

Shakir should be called on frequently enough by Josh Allen and the Bills to eclipse 38.5 receiving yards on Monday Night Football against the Vikings.

This article was originally published on Forbes.com