NFL Week 7 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

This is the weirdest time of year in NFL Survivor contests. If you’re still chugging along in yours, you’ve likely run through some of the most obvious teams. Later in the season, it’s not about picking from a wealth of decent choices; it’s about picking what’s still available. But right now? Week 7? You still have some options. Maybe not all the options, maybe not the elite teams, but you have options. It’s not picking from the A-plusses, but it’s not taking whatever C-minus falls to you. Everything is a B, B-plus, and you have to pick among them. That’s hard. Let’s see how that plays out. Check out my Week 7 pick for Survivor contests. And while we’re here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 7

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember — this game is “once you use a team, they’re off the board,” so it’s not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can’t pick a team I’ve picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

Bye Weeks

My favorite category — picks I can’t get wrong! If you don’t play, you can’t win, but also I won’t pick you, so woohoo for easy. Buffalo Bills Jacksonville Jaguars Los Angeles Chargers Washington Commanders That’s four off the board.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it’s too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Denver) Atlanta Falcons (vs. San Francisco) Chicago Bears (vs. New England) Cincinnati Bengals (@ Baltimore) Indianapolis Colts (@ Minnesota) Kansas City Chiefs (@ Seattle) New England Patriots (@ Chicago) Seattle Seahawks (vs. Kansas City) Some of these teams will win but you can’t confidently say so, considering who they’re facing. That’s eight more gone, 20 to go.

They’re Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you’re the second-worst team, well, I’m still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We’ll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Miami Dolphins (@ NY Jets) New Orleans Saints (vs. Pittsburgh in France) New York Giants (@ Houston) New York Jets (vs. Miami) Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Dallas) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Carolina) Tennessee Titans (vs. Cleveland) Seven more eliminations leaves us with 13 remaining.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or an overseas 9:30 a.m. ET game. There aren’t many left this week, but I still want to note them. Dallas Cowboys (@ Philadelphia) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. New Orleans in France) Two more gone, 11 left. But this week, we have one extra category.

Who’s Playing for Them?

There is a startling number of teams in turmoil right now. These are teams that would normally still be eligible through this point in our process, but I can eliminate them in one fell swoop with a simple question: Can we trust that their lineup this week is who we want it to be? Baltimore Ravens (vs. Cincinnati) — Lamar Jackson back? And is he 100% if so? Denver Broncos (@ Arizona) — The number of “will Bo Nix get benched?” questions is only rising. Los Angeles Rams (@ Las Vegas) — So many injuries last week. It’s a mess. San Francisco 49ers (@ Atlanta) — Eventually a team loses too many receivers. And that’s four more gone, leaving us with seven teams — our seven contenders.

The Contenders

Once we’re down to this small a number of teams, we’re done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I’m also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay)

Model Projection: Panthers 22.24-21.78, Panthers 51.3% win rate Pros: The Panthers look like the best team in a bad NFC South. Cons: It’s hard to believe the Buccaneers will stay this bad, especially if Baker Mayfield can find his way back this week.

Cleveland Browns (@ Tennessee)

Model Projection: Titans 18.13-17.04, Browns 46.1% win rate Pros: It’s Week 7 and the Browns are in first place! And the Titans are bad. Cons: Well, the Titans just won their most recent game, and the model doesn’t even project Cleveland to win. Maybe “4-2” is doing a lot of work here.

Detroit Lions (vs. Green Bay)

Model Projection: Lions 25.06-23.81, Lions 53.2% win rate Pros: The Lions’ offense might be record-setting. Cons: The Lions’ defense turns every offense into the Lions’ offense.

Green Bay Packers (@ Detroit)

Model Projection: Lions 25.06-23.81, Packers 46.8% win rate Pros: With Josh Jacobs expected to be back, the Packers are all set up to have the offense they planned to have. Cons: Would you feel comfortable resting your whole season on either side of this rivalry game?

Houston Texans (vs. NY Giants)

Model Projection: Texans 27.92-16.58, Texans 78.6% win rate Pros: The Texans are suddenly 2-4 and C.J. Stroud looks like a star again. Cons: It was two weeks ago that everyone was giving up on Houston. Meanwhile, the Giants are actually in first place.

Las Vegas Raiders (vs. LA Rams)

Model Projection: Rams 29.41-20.29, Raiders 28.3% win rate Pros: The Rams are falling apart. Cons: Even a falling-apart Rams team is pretty talented. Meanwhile, the Raiders have fallen from 3-0 to 3-3.

Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis)

Model Projection: Vikings 25.65-17.17, Vikings 73.2% win rate Pros: The best defense in football attacking whatever it is that Daniel Jones is now? Goodness. Cons: The Vikings offense still doesn’t scare anyone.

The Pick

Houston Texans (vs. NY Giants)

The Texans have righted the ship, while the Giants are a mess and are J.J. McCarthy out there. I trust Houston to keep it rolling this week. (Did I consider the Browns under the “When the heck else are you going to be able to use Cleveland in Survivor” argument? I did! I wouldn’t fault you at all going that way.)

Honorable Mention

Cleveland Browns (@ Tennessee) Minnesota Vikings (vs. Indianapolis) — if you didn’t use them when I did 2026 record: 4-2 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks (L) Week 4: Vikings (W) Week 5: Bengals (W) Week 6: Chiefs (W) Week 7: Texans