NFL Power Rankings entering Week 5: Chiefs are all the way back at 4-0, though injury concerns linger

Bad news for all those who thought the Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty was over.

The Chiefs might be an anomaly. No other NFL dynasty had a bad season in the middle of it. The Patriots missed the playoffs in 2008 a season after going 16-0, but they were 11-5 and missed on a tiebreaker. The 1982 49ers were 3-6, but that was a weird strike season. When any other NFL dynasty had a terrible season, the run was over at that point.

They’re 4-0 after beating a Raiders team that was off to a 3-0 start. While there was plenty of faith in the Chiefs bouncing back this season, there were reasons to wonder as well. Kansas City went 6-11 last season, and that included 6-8 in Patrick Mahomes’ starts. Mahomes tore his ACL on Dec. 14 and there was concern he wouldn’t be available for the start of the season nine months later.

There were questions on the roster, not just the recurring issues at receiver but also losing three valuable starters from the secondary in free agency and a trade. Those questions have subsided. Mahomes looks healthy and pretty good. The excellence of free-agent addition Kenneth Walker at running back has given the Chiefs a dimension they haven’t had in a long time. Kansas City is third in DVOA. It’s fourth in EPA (expected points added per play) on offense and ninth in EPA allowed on defense; Chicago and Jacksonville are the only other teams ranked top nine in both.

Yet, there’s concern. KC’s receivers are now dealing with injuries. Tyquan Thornton, who was playing a big role because Xavier Worthy has done almost nothing in his third season, is out for months with a gruesome ankle injury. Rashee Rice suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday. The line has been without left tackle Josh Simmons all season due to injury. Walker is great but he has never had a huge workload in the NFL and will be asked to carry even more of the offense going forward. If Walker fades or gets injured, it could get scary.

But every team has concerns. For the Chiefs, all that matters is they are undefeated and with very promising balance through four weeks. There was a question after last season’s stunning fall if the Chiefs’ dynasty was over. The Chiefs have seemingly provided the answer to that.

Here are the NFL power rankings after Week 4 of the NFL season:
(0-4, Last week: 32)

The Dolphins battled at Minnesota, and if they didn’t get unlucky on Chris Bell barely stepping out of bounds before catching a long touchdown and getting an illegal touching penalty, maybe they’d have a win. But it’s another loss, and Miami’s offense is still hard to watch. Unfortunately for Dolphins fans, it’s a familiar feeling.

The problem might be that the Dolphins can’t really get an evaluation of Malik Willis. He has not played well. He had 85 yards passing and was inaccurate on several throws. But given the junior varsity roster around him, is he getting a fair look? The Dolphins need to figure it out before the 2027 NFL Draft, though it seems inevitable they’ll be taking a quarterback.
(0-4, LW: 31)

Maybe it was just a half of garbage time with the Ravens trying to just run out the clock without Lamar Jackson after halftime, but there were some signs of progress from the Titans.

They outscored Baltimore 11-0 in the second half. Cam Ward finished 20-of-31 passing for 222 yards and a touchdown. Carnell Tate might have been the biggest story for Tennessee, as the fourth overall pick of the draft had nine catches for 145 yards. In the first three weeks combined he had 13 catches for 123 yards. There were still issues. Tate fumbled twice, losing one. Ward threw an interception on a flip pass that went off Tony Pollard’s hands and Tennessee had just one scoring drive in the first half as Baltimore pulled away. Tennessee gave up 24 points in the first half. But at least it was a little better in the second half.

“We have to really hone in on the bad plays, and how we can limit that,” Ward said, via the team’s site. “We have to limit the bad plays on both sides of the ball, not just offense.”
(0-4, LW: 30)

At some point, Buccaneers ownership will ask how the team put itself in a position that it had to start undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels at quarterback with its season slipping away. Daniels was the first undrafted rookie QB to start a game in Week 4 or earlier since the 1970 AFL/NFL merger. Daniels did the best he could in a tough situation, completing 19-of-27 passing for 148 yards, a touchdown and two interceptions with 55 yards rushing. But the Buccaneers came up short, scoring only 14 points.

Head coach Todd Bowles is firmly on the hot seat. General manager Jason Licht did a great job constructing the 2020 Bucs team that won a title, but Tampa Bay’s record is 93-108 in his 13 seasons as GM. If this season continues to get worse with Daniels starting, or even with Baker Mayfield rushing back from a thumb injury, nobody should feel too safe.
(0-4, LW: 29)

Maybe the second half, when the Chargers outscored Seattle 17-10, is a sign that things are turning around. Probably not though. Seattle led 20-6 at halftime. Herbert was 5 of 14 for 36 passing yards and two interceptions with a passer rating of 4.8 at halftime. Seattle let its guard down in the second half and allowed LA to have a shot at tying the game in the final two minutes. With the game on the line, the Seahawks sacked Herbert, causing a fumble the Chargers lost. That seemed more like the 2026 Chargers.

The Chargers lost their last three games last season, including one in the playoffs. The seven-game losing streak is the longest of Jim Harbaugh’s entire coaching career in college or the pros, according to NFL Media researcher John Todd. Harbaugh should turn things around. But it’s possible the Chargers are buried by the time that happens.
(1-3, LW: 27)

We might be seeing the Jets start to unravel. They’ve lost three in a row since beating the Titans in Week 1, and Sunday’s performance was miserable for them. They ran just 32 plays compared to 89 for the Bears, a massive discrepancy. The last time there was a gap that large was when the 1999 Browns, an expansion team, ran 28 plays to 90 for the Steelers (h/t FootballPerspective.com).

Late in the third quarter, Geno Smith was 5-for-11 passing for 44 yards. The Jets had some offensive injuries but the Bears were using their backup quarterback, so it’s not a great excuse.

The Jets’ offense has looked much better than that this season so perhaps it was just a truly horrible afternoon. But at 1-3, the season could get away from New York quickly.
(1-3, LW: 28)

Jeremiyah Love’s comments after the fourth game of his rookie season were odd. Love played 30 snaps, six fewer than Tyler Allgeier, and the Cardinals lost a game that was up in the air until the final play. It was weird usage. Love said he was being managed and he was good with it. He said he would “probably just hinder the team” playing more and he said he told the coaches, “I think Tyler or Bam [Knight] can exert themselves a little bit more,” according to ESPN’s Josh Weinfuss. Love said the high-ankle sprain he had in preseason isn’t an issue anymore, just general wear and tear and management by coaches.

“It’s been a long year for me,” Love said, via Weinfuss. “Body sometimes is down, body sometimes is tired. So it’s just managing those things. Coaches know that this is probably going to be the longest year of my life. And just want to manage that workload.”

Love tweaked his other ankle in Sunday’s loss, head coach Mike LaFleur said Monday, raising the need to manage the rookie’s workdload.

Love was the third overall pick of the NFL Draft and has looked good (4.1 yards per carry) even though his snaps have been limited. The Cardinals shouldn’t be running the third pick into the ground when it’s clear they’re not a playoff contender, but it’s still unusual to hear Love talking about how it has already been a long year when the Cardinals still have 13 games to go.
(0-4, LW: 24)

With 2:23 left on Sunday, the Texans scored to take a 30-27 lead. A defense that was expected to be one of the best in the NFL could win the game with one stop, or at least make sure the game went to overtime by holding Dallas to a field goal. The Cowboys went downfield and scored a touchdown.

Dallas has a good offense but Houston was supposed to have a good defense. The Texans don’t. They are surprisingly average: 14th in DVOA after Sunday’s games and 26th in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play. Defensive dominance can vary more season to season than offensive excellence, but it’s still surprising that the Texans are winless and a middle-of-the-road defense is a big reason for that.

“It sucks, because we know we’re the ones out there on the field,” Texans cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. said, via the Houston Chronicle. “The coaches put us in the right position to win and we’ve got to do it. They can’t do it, we’ve got to do it. We’ve got great coaches, we’ve got great everybody. We’ve got to go out there and do our job.”
(1-3, LW: 21)

Maybe if Marcus Mariota hadn’t gotten injured, the Commanders might have won and been a promising 2-2. They were about to take an early 6-0 lead on the Colts early in the game when Mariota sprained MCL in his right knee. The Commanders’ defense played pretty well but Washington’s offense couldn’t do much with rookie Athan Kaliakmanis in for Mariota and an inactive Jayden Daniels. And 1-3 is a tough hole to dig out of.

With Mariota hurt and the Commanders in danger of having their season slip away further, there has to be tremendous urgency for Daniels to return from a dislocated left elbow.

“That’s the hope for us for sure, Jay coming back,” Commanders coach Dan Quinn said. “He’ll have a full week of practice Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. That’s the goal: that he could get into that space.”
(2-2, LW: 25)

The Packers won. They faced an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first start and escaped with a 17-14 victory when the Buccaneers threw incomplete on fourth-and-11 from the Packers’ 47-yard line. That’s not exactly the dominant performance that will get Packers fans off Matt LaFleur’s back.

But a win is a win. Green Bay comes home and plays the Bears in Week 5, a game that was flexed out of the late afternoon time slot in part because of Caleb Williams’ injury but also because the Packers aren’t that interesting. A third straight loss to the Bears, including last season’s horrid collapse in the wild-card round, will have Green Bay fans again calling for LaFleur’s job.
(1-3, LW: 18)

It seemed like the Saints were off to a promising start to this season after the second half of last season went very well. But it doesn’t look as good after Monday night’s blowout loss to the Falcons. New Orleans is a fourth quarter comeback against the Ravens from being 0-4. The offensive line did a poor job protecting Tyler Shough, the running game without injured Travis Etienne Jr. was ineffective and the defense was picked apart by the Falcons.

The one concern about taking the Saints’ hot finish to last season and projecting it to this season was that it came against weak competition. In Shough’s starts last season they faced just one team with a winning record, and they lost that game 34-10 to the Rams. Almost beating the Lions and then defeating the Ravens made it look like the Saints would just carry over their hot streak from last season. After blowing a game to the Raiders at home and being blown out by the Falcons, it looks more like that start was a mirage, and last season’s second half was a product of a soft part of the schedule.
(2-2, LW: 19)

The Colts might have been lucky that the Commanders played most of Sunday’s game in London with a third-string rookie quarterback. They did not play well. Daniel Jones’ struggles are a real issue. He is 27th among 32 NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play. He is generating -0.065 EPA per play this season. His mark last season was 0.220, which was seventh among all QBs with at least 100 snaps. On Sunday, Jones had just 143 yards against one of the NFL’s worst secondaries. He also had an interception and a lost fumble.

Injuries at receiver have been an issue. Missing Alec Pierce changes how defenses approach the Colts, without the threat of big plays downfield. Still, Jones looks much worse than he did last season and it’s fair to wonder if his Achilles tear plays a part in that. He still has the support of Colts head coach Shane Steichen, who said Jones is doing a good job.

“I think he’s done some really good things and then some things we need to clean up,” Steichen told the media. “But he’s made some big-time throws.”
(2-2, LW: 17)

The days of this Steelers defense scaring anyone are probably over. Pittsburgh is 15th in defensive DVOA through Sunday’s games, 14th in EPA allowed per play, 23rd in success rate allowed and 13th in yards per game allowed. Pittsburgh allowed Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson to go 14-of-17 passing for 181 yards and a touchdown in the first half last Thursday night, then let him put together a game-winning drive.

It’s just an average defense. The Steelers had the second-oldest defense in the NFL coming into the season by average age, so it’s not like there’s an obvious turnaround coming with a young unit. The offense’s upside is limited with a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. The ceiling is not very high for this team.
(3-1, LW: 20)

Cleveland should be happy to be on a three-game winning streak. It’s probably not sustainable. The Browns have had three very close wins, with the go-ahead scores coming with 3:51, 1:48 and 10 seconds to play. Their point differential is -14. Their DVOA is 23rd.

And still, it’s OK to be excited. The young cast around the quarterback position is flashing a lot of talent. Rookie receivers Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion Jr. already look good, and second-year tight end Harold Fannin Jr. is playing well again this season. Deshaun Watson is still very unlikely to be the long-term answer at quarterback but if the Browns get that right in the 2027 NFL Draft, the future is bright. And the Browns are at the Jets next, so a 4-1 start is possible.

“This ain’t the old Browns,” Cleveland defensive end Jared Verse said, according to Cleveland.com. “We’ve got new swag.”
(2-2, LW: 13)

Detroit’s defense isn’t good enough to make the Lions scary to anyone. Detroit is allowing 423.8 yards per game, and no other NFL team is giving up more than 392.3. Detroit has allowed 127 points, most in the NFL. On Sunday against the Panthers, Tetairoa McMillan torched the secondary for 192 yards and two touchdowns on 14 catches.

It’s bad enough that head coach Dan Campbell was asked afterward if defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard could be relieved of his duties.

“I’m not talking about all that,” Campbell told the media after Sunday’s loss.
“I’m talking about getting better right now, with what we’ve got, and that’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to find a way to get better with what we’ve got.”

Campbell might not want to talk about it, but the Lions aren’t going anywhere with a defense this bad.
(2-2, LW: 26)

Bryce Young is having an unexpected breakout. It’s not like Young didn’t have talent. He was a Heisman Trophy winner and a No. 1 overall draft pick. But Young has gone from a low-volume quarterback who topped out at 3,011 passing yards in 16 games last season to the NFL’s leader in passing yards through Sunday’s games. He is averaging 317 passing yards per game, which would be 5,389 through 17 games. That would be the third-most passing yards in a single season in NFL history. Before this season Young had never averaged more than 188.2 yards per game over a full season. Young had three 300-yard games in his first three seasons, and he already has two through four games this season. It’s unusual to have a quarterback take that big a leap in his fourth season.

He’s off to such a hot start that the Sunday night television audience heard Panthers fans chanting “MVP” at their quarterback.

“Yeah, I heard it,” Young said, via the Panthers’ site. “In the moment, you’re just focusing on executing and trying to move the team.”
(3-1, LW: 15)

The Giants are winning and that’s a testament to a much-improved coaching staff and some of the young talent on hand. But it’ll be hard to keep it going. Jameis Winston had two turnovers and took four sacks in a win against a bad Cardinals team that came down to the final play. Winston has started 91 games in his career and has 116 interceptions. Everyone knows where this is headed. And those thinking J.J. McCarthy will be a big improvement haven’t seen McCarthy play enough.

Still, the Giants are 3-1. They needed an interception in their end zone with 17 seconds left to beat an 0-4 Titans team two weeks ago, and an interception at the 2-yard line on the final play to beat a 1-3 Cardinals team on Sunday. Both of those games were at home. But coach John Harbaugh views the high-wire wins as a positive.

“That’s what winning is,” Harbaugh said, via the team’s site. “That’s what winning teams do. They find ways to win games. That’s why they’re winning teams and I’m proud of those guys for that.”
(2-2, LW: 23)

It appears the first two games of the Falcons’ season shouldn’t count for much. They were down to their third option at quarterback and struggled badly with Cooper Rush running the offense. They went 0-2. If we just judge the Falcons since Michael Penix Jr. came back, then this ranking might be a little low. Atlanta looks like a completely different team. The Falcons have two prime-time, road blowout wins since Penix came back. They pounded the Packers in Week 3, winning 35-14, and then looked even better blasting the Saints on Monday night. The offense that looked so bad has taken off. It’s not because Penix has been otherworldly, but he has been solid and defenses have to respect the Falcons’ run game in a way they didn’t when Rush was at quarterback. The Falcons’ defense has been much better the last two weeks too. Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is a big reason the Falcons had a fantastic pass rush against Tyler Shough on Monday night. Maybe the NFC South will have a champion with a winning record after all.
(2-2, LW: 14)

The Eagles still haven’t looked good this season. Barely beating the Commanders and Titans, who are a combined 1-7, isn’t aging well. They were blown out by the Bears in Week 3 and then on Sunday blew a 10-point lead in the final five minutes. The Eagles did not score in the second half, the second straight game in which they were shut out after halftime. The Eagles were without receiver DeVonta Smith and tight end Dallas Goedert, who were inactive, and without running back Saquon Barkley for most of the game after he injured his hamstring. The Eagles also played without right tackle Lane Johnson, who was suddenly ruled out due to a personal matter on Sunday morning. It wouldn’t be a big surprise if Barkley misses some time, and there is no indication of what’s going on with Johnson.

Despite all the excuses, the Eagles still have to be better than they were on Sunday. They had 172 yards and went 0-for-12 on third downs. They averaged a putrid 3 yards per play. Jalen Hurts had 10 passing yards on 2 for 9 passing in the second half, which is stunningly bad no matter the opponent or injuries elsewhere on offense.

“It hasn’t been good enough,” said Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, who is getting a lot of heat in Philadelphia, according to the team’s site.
(2-2, LW: 8)

The Broncos have played eight halves of football. They’ve been bad for six of them, particularly on offense. On Sunday, against a 49ers defense dealing with many injuries, Denver didn’t score its first touchdown until 4:05 remained in the game. They are now 26th in offense in success rate. Denver is averaging 3.6 yards per rushing attempt, and only four teams are worse. The Broncos average 6.1 yards per pass attempt, and only three teams are worse than that.

The easy switch would be Sean Payton taking back play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb. In Payton’s first 18 seasons as a head coach between the Saints and Broncos, his offenses finished outside of the top 15 in yardage and points just three times. They’re 27th in yardage and 26th in points scored this season. Payton said he wouldn’t consider a play-calling change at this point.

“Yeah, like I said, it’s too early,” Payton said, according to transcripts. “It’s a fair question; I appreciate it. It’s tough to discuss any of that right now.”
(2-2, LW: 22)

One big win changed the scope of the Patriots’ season. They’re right back in the AFC East race after beating the Bills. Drake Maye went from being berated for his poor play to a 269-yard, three-touchdown day. Receiver Romeo Doubs, who was looking like a potential free-agency bust after three games, made his impact with two touchdowns. A defense that hadn’t been great did a good job limiting Josh Allen, and coming up with an interception with 1:05 to go and the Bills trailing by just three points.

One win, even one as crucial as Sunday’s road victory, doesn’t eliminate all concerns. But it’s better than being three games behind Buffalo already this season.

“It gets us back in the race,” head coach Mike Vrabel said, via the team’s site. “We knew it was going to be a battle. Josh is unbelievable. Drake went toe-to-toe with him.”
(2-2, LW: 16)

CeeDee Lamb had a game for the ages on Sunday. He had 17 catches, and only six times in NFL history has a player had more. Lamb had 189 yards, making him the only Cowboys player ever to have 17 catches and 170 yards in a game. He also caught the game-winning touchdown against the Texans with 40 seconds left.

“CeeDee’s been great,” QB Dak Prescott said., via the team’s site. “Obviously today, but just throughout the whole season. Just his demeanor, his mindset, his mentality, communication throughout each and every play, and I think today was just a great example of that.”

Dallas still has a big defensive problem. They’re 31st in EPA allowed per play and there’s a big gap between them and Buffalo at No. 30. But the offense has mostly been as good as expected. And with the rest of the issues around the NFC East, Dallas is looking like the best team in the division.
(2-2, LW: 12)

The Bengals were off to such a good start at 2-0. And yet the Bengals still aren’t over their slow starts. They lost to a flawed Steelers team and then couldn’t pull off a late win against the Jaguars at home, dropping them to 2-2. This is the fifth straight season the Bengals have failed to be above .500 through four games.

The running game hasn’t been helping. The Bengals have just 297 rushing yards through four games. Only the Packers are worse. They had to abandon it early Sunday. Cincinnati threw it 54 times and had just 12 rushing attempts by running backs. Chase Brown had just 10 yards on nine carries so it’s not like the Bengals could trust the run game to sustain the offense. Brown has been a productive runner since his 2024 breakout so it’s likely he’s just off to a slow start, like the Bengals as a team yet again.
(3-1, LW: 10)

Hindsight changes perceptions, but the Raiders taking a field goal off the board in the third quarter due to a defensive penalty and then failing to convert on fourth-and-2 was a critical turning point in a three-point loss to the Chiefs.

“We were going to be aggressive going into the game,” Raiders coach Klint Kubiak said, according to the team’s site. “I don’t regret it. I regret not getting it.”

Overall, the Raiders acquitted themselves just fine in defeat. They led with less than four minutes to play. They might have answered a late Chiefs touchdown, but they lost a fumble on the next kickoff. Las Vegas out-gained the Chiefs 437-398, which is of little consolation but shows the Raiders were close to knocking off Kansas City. If anything, they validated their hot start with a close loss to a Chiefs team that is 4-0 and has won nine of the last 10 AFC West titles.
(4-0, LW: 9)

The Vikings did something on Sunday that no other team has accomplished since 1923. It’s not great though. They’re the first team since the 1923 Chicago Cardinals to start 4-0 and not score a touchdown in two of the wins.

The Vikings’ offense has not been good. Not having Kyler Murray for a full game and most of a second is a reasonable excuse, as is missing Justin Jefferson for almost two full games. We’ll see if the offense looks much better with Jefferson back and Murray healthy. But Murray hasn’t been a very good NFL quarterback; the woebegone Cardinals took a dead cap hit of $54.7 million to be done with him. Even without Jefferson the Vikings should score at least one touchdown against a bad Dolphins defense at home (yes, T.J. Hockenson held up after getting a game-clinching first down when he could have scored, that’s noted). Murray is last among NFL quarterbacks in success rate and second-to-last in EPA per play. Minnesota is going to take a step back if the offense doesn’t get better, no matter how good the defense is.
(2-2, LW: 6)

It’s tough to drop the Rams two spots after a road win against Philadelphia, but it’s getting to a point in which they have to play better to reclaim their status as an unquestionably elite team. The first three-plus quarters on Sunday were ugly on the offensive side of the ball. And that was with Puka Nacua back. Matthew Stafford has six touchdowns and six interceptions in four games. He had eight interceptions all of last season. Stafford is 38 years old and many quarterbacks see a steep decline in their late 30s, if they’re still playing.

The Rams won because their defense was fantastic and then the offense came alive for two clutch drives at the end. A decision by the Eagles to go for it on fourth down instead of taking a short field goal to make the score 23-10 in the fourth quarter helped too. The Rams found a way to win but they’ve only looked good in one of four games, and that was after the Giants lost quarterback Jaxson Dart to injury in the first quarter. It doesn’t get easier either: The Rams host the Bills next Monday night.
(3-1, LW: 5)

Everything is on hold as the Ravens find out if Lamar Jackson is OK from an ankle injury. Presumably, he was sitting in the second half mostly as a precaution, as they led 24-7 against a terrible Titans team. But any injury to Jackson’s lower body is a concern considering how dangerous he is on the move.

Overall there’s nothing wrong with the Ravens holding onto beat the Titans after they went in a shell without Jackson, though 13 penalties is something that needs to be addressed. They did enough to win, despite being outscored 11-0 by a poor Titans team in the second half, and that’s all that matters. They didn’t move down in these rankings as much as the Bears and Jaguars moved up past them. The Ravens are still a Super Bowl contender. But that depends on Jackson staying healthy. We saw in the second half what the Ravens would look like without Jackson, and it’s not pretty.
(3-1, LW: 11)

The Bears get a big bump, and it’s because of their defense. Chicago had a bad Week 1 on defense, and that seemed to be in line with their preseason expectations. The Bears were 25th in defensive DVOA last season and didn’t make major improvements in the offseason. But over the last three weeks the Bears’ defense has been excellent. From Week 2 through Week 4 they are third in EPA allowed per play. The only touchdowns they’ve given up in three weeks was an Eagles quarterback sneak that was snapped barely before time ran out in the first half, and a garbage time touchdown to the Jets in the fourth quarter when they led 23-6.

It helps that Chicago has faced the Vikings with Carson Wentz, an Eagles offense that looks surprisingly inept on offense and the Jets, but the results are impressive. If Chicago has an above-average defense, this is a Super Bowl contender. We all know the offense will be fine, especially when Caleb Williams returns.
(3-1, LW: 1)

The Bills could have essentially finished the AFC East race. They were at home against the Patriots and could have exited that game with a three-game lead in the division. That’s what made Sunday’s loss a disappointment. The defense in particular let down, allowing 405 yards to a Patriots offense that had been struggling.

Buffalo’s offense is just fine, as it always will be with Josh Allen. Though Allen himself cost the team with an interception in the final two minutes that he admitted he should have thrown away instead of taking a risk downfield. The defense is the bigger issue. It is now 30th in EPA per play allowed and 26th in DVOA. The lowest a Super Bowl champion has ever ranked in defensive DVOA is the 2006 Colts at 25th. Either the Bills’ defense needs to improve or they’re in danger of wasting another season of Allen’s prime.

The transitive property doesn’t really work in the NFL but consider this: In Week 3, the Jaguars beat the Patriots 35-6. A week later that same Patriots team beat the Bills on the road. The easy takeaway from that, and how Jacksonville has looked in a season-plus of the Liam Coen era: The Jaguars have been underrated here and that needs to change. Coen is 16-5 as Jaguars head coach.

Jacksonville is second to San Francisco in DVOA, and that seems like the right spot. They’ve blown out the Browns and Patriots, who are 5-1 against everyone else. They won at the Bengals, who had started the season 2-0 and are considered a dangerous team. The loss to the Broncos was unfortunate, but Jacksonville led 10-3 at halftime and they’re not the first team to fade in the second half at altitude early in the season. Had it not been for that second half at Denver, Jacksonville would have a case to be the No. 1 team in these rankings. They’re very good.
(4-0, LW: 4)

If you want the Chiefs to fall off sometime soon, it’s probably not going to happen. Their upcoming schedule is pretty soft and should lead to a start of 8-2 or better:

Week 5: bye
Week 6: vs. Chargers
Week 7: at Seahawks
Week 8: at Broncos
Week 9: vs. Jets
Week 10: at Falcons
Week 11: vs. Cardinals

That’s four games in which Kansas City should be significant favorites, and while the game at the Seahawks will be very tough, it’s not like the Broncos are playing great. That’s a winnable road game. A 4-2 run through those six games seems to be the worst outcome. The Chiefs aren’t going away.
(3-1, LW: 3)

The Seahawks have been far from perfect. It was a bit disappointing that they relaxed so much after taking a 27-6 lead against the Chargers that the defense had to get a stop in the final two minutes after Los Angeles cut the lead to 30-23. And it wasn’t ideal that Seattle lost in Week 3 to the Commanders, who are 0-3 in their other three games this season.

But there shouldn’t be much concern about the Seahawks. The loss to the Commanders was fluky (they out-gained Washington by 179 yards) and they won their other three games. The defense is still spectacular, ranking first in DVOA, even if it let up against the Chargers for a bit. Next up is a battle against the 49ers that likely will determine who is No. 1 in the Power Rankings after Week 5.

“Got to look forward, move forward. Got a big week ahead of us, and guys are excited,” Seahawks coach Mike Macdonald said, according to the team’s site. “They played extremely hard, stayed together, and did enough to win the game, so we’re thankful.”
(4-0, LW: 2)

It has been a good runout for the 49ers. They haven’t played a true road game yet. They faced the Cardinals and Dolphins, two of the NFL’s worst teams. The weirdness of the Australia trip for the Rams has been talked about often. But the 49ers just keep winning and looking pretty good doing it.

If there’s any remaining skepticism about the 49ers, this week will be telling. San Francisco plays at Seattle on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco’s offense is first in the NFL in EPA per play and by a wide margin (0.274 with the Bills in second at 0.204). If the 49ers can keep that going against an excellent Seahawks defense, it will solidify the 49ers as the No. 1 team in the NFL so far this season.

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