NFL Expert Has Confident Take About Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are entering the 2026 NFL season with renewed expectations, and ESPN analyst Dan Graziano believes the team is positioned to reclaim its place atop the AFC West. His confident projection places Kansas City ahead of its division rivals after a season that failed to meet the franchise’s usual standards.

Graziano’s prediction centers on a bounce-back campaign for the Chiefs, who remain one of the conference’s most established contenders. He has Kansas City winning the AFC West again, signaling his belief that the team’s experience, coaching structure and championship pedigree will prove decisive over the course of the season.

Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) gets ready prior to a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

The division is not short on competition, with the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers both presenting legitimate challenges. Denver has continued building around a young core, while Los Angeles possesses the talent to remain in the playoff conversation, but Graziano still sees Kansas City as the most reliable choice to finish first.

The Chiefs‘ case begins with their ability to perform under pressure and navigate difficult stretches. Even when the offense has struggled or injuries have disrupted the lineup, Kansas City has repeatedly shown an ability to adjust, remain competitive and find ways to win close games.

Dec 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) runs the ball during the second half against the Los Angeles Chargers at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Mahomes and company is projected to make back on top of the AFC West this season. This is detailed more in an analysis by Dan Graziano for ESPN.

Kansas City replaced Matt Nagy with Eric Bieniemy at offensive coordinator, which doesn’t seem like a big change given Bieniemy’s history there, but the Chiefs also changed out several other offensive assistants. And they are counting on a fully healthy Xavier Worthy, a (hopefully) fully healthy and engaged Rashee Rice and newly signed running back Kenneth Walker III to make them more explosive. I have the Chiefs bouncing back and reclaiming the AFC West title.

Kansas City replaced Matt Nagy with Eric Bieniemy at offensive coordinator, which doesn’t seem like a big change given Bieniemy’s history there, but the Chiefs also changed out several other offensive assistants. And they are counting on a fully healthy Xavier Worthy, a (hopefully) fully healthy and engaged Rashee Rice and newly signed running back Kenneth Walker III to make them more explosive. I have the Chiefs bouncing back and reclaiming the AFC West title.

Mahomes’ return from injury adds another important element to the projection. His presence gives the Chiefs a proven leader capable of elevating the offense in critical moments, while the organization’s familiarity with high-stakes football provides an advantage that younger division rivals are still trying to develop.

A division title would restore momentum and reinforce Kansas City’s status as an AFC powerhouse. Graziano’s forecast is not simply a prediction that the Chiefs will improve, but a belief that they can once again control the AFC West and begin another serious pursuit of postseason success.