New NFL research: Always bet against the last undefeated team

The Vikings were the NFL’s final undefeated team before losing on Sunday. Although trends don’t tell us what will happen, they show what could realistically happen. Based on historical trends, Minnesota has almost no shot at winning the Super Bowl.

This year marks the third time since 2000 that the Vikings have been the last undefeated team. The first time (2000), they lost 41-0 in the Conference Championship. The other time (2016), they lost seven of their final 10 games.

In all my years studying the NFL, one of the most loaded stats I’ve ever found is this one: since 2000, “last undefeated” teams have an 8% winning percentage in the Super Bowl. You read that correctly. 13 times a “last undefeated” has reached the title game. But only the 2006 Colts have won it all. That statistic has a lot to unpack.

13 of the “last undefeateds” didn’t even win a playoff game; three of them missed the playoffs altogether. This year’s 6-1 Vikings have an elite defense, which could carry them far. But based on recent history, they’re more likely to fall in the Wild Card round than reach the Super Bowl.

Additionally, these “last undefeated” teams have averaged 7.4 wins before taking their first loss. After that, they’ve won only 61% of their remaining contests.

Who knows? Maybe the Vikings’ early-season success will carry over into February. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

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This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: New NFL research: Always bet against the last undefeated team