MLB Mid-September Check-in: AL Central
Every day, Pinstripe Alley offers updates on what the Yankees‘ top American League opponents are up to through the Rivalry Roundup. The AL East is well-trodden ground there, but with the season’s final month halfway over, we’re going to take a peek around MLB as a whole and check in with each of the other five divisions. Who’s surprising? Who’s underwhelming? Who’s simply mediocre at the moment? Read on and find out.
(Note: Records and standings are up to date through games played on Sunday, September 13th.)
Top Position Player: Miguel Vargas (4.4 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Sean Burke (2.9 fWAR)
The White Sox had sorta been coasting for months as the AL’s No. 2 seed in a very dreadful division in a league where the best three teams all reside on the East Coast. Up until a few weeks ago, they weren’t in any danger, holding a 5.5-game lead as of August 16. Since then, though? They’ve lost five games to the surging Guardians while stumbling to 10 losses in their last 14 games. They enter this week with just a half-game lead heading into an important series with Cleveland, beginning tonight.
The offense is what’s trying to keep this team above water, as the young nucleus that we’ve all come to know this season has been remarkably consistent (for the most part). All-Stars Miguel Vargas and Tristan Peters are both continuing to hit, while they’re getting value across the board from guys like Chase Meidroth, Sam Antonacci, Colson Montgomery, and Yankee killer Randal Grichuk as a platoon bat. The guy everyone’s watched like a hawk all season, though, is Munetaka Murakami. He was awesome to start the year, but hasn’t been the same since his injury. Since August 1, he’s slashing just .140/.276/.322 with a 69 wRC+ and a 40 percent strikeout rate.
As I said, the offense is what’s kept them afloat. The pitching has been vulnerable, with their planned ace, Davis Martin, hitting a big midseason wall after a hot start. Sean Burke would probably start a potential Game 1 for them at this point, but the bigger issue is how things line up behind them, as Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde have been so-so all season long. They have a top-10 bullpen by ERA with high-leverage options in Bryan Hudson, Grant Taylor, and former Brave Sean Newcomb, but it gets shallow after that. Seranthony Dominguez and Jordan Hicks’ walk rates are way too high to trust in October.
Top Position Player: Chase DeLauter (3.2 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Parker Messick (4.5 fWAR)
With how mediocre the American League is this year, the Guardians have never quite been out of it, but there have been some times when it looked pretty bleak. They were 61-66 on August 19 after losing 18 of 25 and were falling behind the pack, even in an incredibly mediocre wild-card race. Since then, they’ve essentially mirrored the White Sox’s futility by going 15-8, pulling to within a half game and narrowly leading the Blue Jays and Rangers for the third wild card. They’d need to sweep the White Sox this week to get the tiebreaker, but even just winning the series would be huge to end the ChiSox’s 53-day streak of being alone in first.
They’ve gotten back into this division race despite an incredibly mediocre offense that hits way fewer homers than almost anyone else with a 94 wRC+. Rookie Chase DeLauter’s been their most consistent bat, while Travis Bazzana is heating back up after a post-All-Star break slump. Their defense-first catching platoon of Patrick Bailey and Austin Hedges has shockingly shown some life offensively, but this team’s playoff chances will ride and die on José Ramírez. The 33-year-old has had his worst season since 2015 around a month-long hand injury, sitting with just a 91 wRC+ entering Sunday.
With that underwhelming offense, how do they have a fighter’s chance at the division and a first-round bye? Their pitching has been spectacular again. Gavin Williams looks like an ace with one of the league’s best strikeout rates, while Parker Messick is having one of the best rookie seasons by a starting pitcher that we’ve seen in a while. It’s a whole bunch of solid behind them too with a good amount of health, as 140 of their 150 starts this year have been made by their five starting pitchers.
As has usually been their strength, they’ve also ridden a pretty good bullpen. It’s the same guys who defined them in 2024, with the exception of you know who. Cade Smith is one of the best closers in baseball and is being set up by Matt Festa, Tim Herrin, and Hunter Gaddis. You look up and down their bullpen, and this might be the deepest unit in the sport. They have five or six guys that they’d probably trust in leverage, which, when you combine that with two guys who can consistently go deep in games, that’s dangerous in a playoff setting.
Top Position Player: Ryan Jeffers (2.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Joe Ryan (2.6 fWAR)
We’re going to get a good look at a desperate Twins team that made the controversial choice to buy at the deadline, seeing an opportunity in a very rough AL wild-card race. Unfortunately for them, they’ve played much worse after the deadline and are entering late September five games behind the Guardians after a 14-22 post-deadline stretch. Their season is as good as dead, something the Yankees can officially bring to the morgue this week in the Twin Cities.
They have a handful of really good hitters that kept them in contention for a long time, but injuries are taking a toll as they always do. Yankees deadline target Ryan Jeffers missed extended time with a broken hamate bone, but has continued to rake upon his return. More lower-body injuries continue to doom Byron Buxton, who’s been ruled out for the season after being placed on the injured list for the third time this year with a hip issue. Kody Clemens’ breakout and Luke Keaschall’s emergence have stabilized their infield situation, but it’s a unit that isn’t quite doing enough to get them in a playoff spot.
They’ve gotten great seasons from Joe Ryan and Taj Bradley, who’ve made 53 combined starts with an ERA around 3.70, but it gets bad after that, displaying the weakness of this team. Bailey Ober, Zebby Matthews, and Connor Prielipp are replacement-level guys being backed up by an underwhelming bullpen. Their closer is former Yankees prospect Yoendrys Gomez, who’s been pretty effective in his first season as a real big leaguer.
The decision to soft buy at the deadline for a team devoid of investment is going to hang over this season and the Pohlads. They got Dean Kremer, Jeff Hoffman, and AJ Minter as their headline pieces, which isn’t necessarily bad, but it’s a half-measure for a team that was on a shaky foundation. There are too many guys on this team who are free agents in the next two years, so the soft-buying strategy for a team that would be heavy underdogs in the postseason is pretty confusing.
Top Position Player: Kevin McGonigle (4.9 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Tarik Skubal (3.0 fWAR)
This is a team that gave up at the deadline, but tried to make a run anyway in mid-August, briefly climbing into a wild-card spot before going on a predictable skid and now finds itself on the periphery with time dwindling. It’s a big step back for the Tigers from their ALDS berth last year, but there are certainly positives to take away.
The biggest positive of them all is the emergence of a pair of stars at two of the most important positions in the sport. Kevin McGonigle will be the runaway Rookie of the Year with a very mature approach and extremely consistent offensive production, while Dillon Dingler is emerging as one of the best catchers in the sport with supreme defense and All-Star offense, even if he’s slumped in the second half. Riley Greene has also continued to be pretty awesome, as has old friend Gleyber Torres. They’ve even gotten some great cameos from recent call-ups Max Clark and Eduardo Valencia. The negatives here are the regression of 2025 Silver Slugger Zach McKinstry and the stagnation of former No. 1 pick Spencer Torkelson, but it’s an offense you gotta love going forward.
Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize are gone, so this has been a makeshift rotation ever since the deadline. Framber Valdez has been the constant all season, having an underwhelming but overall acceptable first year in Detroit. Troy Melton has been a complete revelation, being one of the best starters in baseball who’ve made at least 15 starts. Keider Montero has worked well in a swingman role, trading a spot in the rotation with bulk relief every other outing. All in all, it’s a solid group, especially if the recently returned Jackson Jobe can put together some good starts to end.
You’ve heard a lot of good things about this team, so here’s the bad. The bullpen is incredibly bad. They’ve heavily underperformed their run differential because of some horrific high-leverage relief and some pretty bad managing from ex-Astros skipper AJ Hinch. The ERAs all look pretty good, but they’ve blown a bunch of saves by overworking Kyle Finnegan and Kenley Jansen with a very rigid bullpen structure. Tyler Holton and a rookie Drew Sommers have been good all year, but it hasn’t been enough to save this unit or their season.
Top Position Player: Bobby Witt Jr. (6.5 fWAR)
Top Pitcher: Noah Cameron (3.1 fWAR)
I’m never particularly high on the Royals as a very shallow, low-payroll team, but they’re a team that had high aspirations after their 2024 playoff run and have subsequently disappointed in back-to-back seasons. They have finished the season pretty well, going 16-10 in their last 26 including a nine-game winning streak.
The offense is Bobby Witt Jr. and eight guys who aren’t. He’s going to be the runner-up in MVP voting for the second time in three years, and might’ve had a good chance to get that award if his bat was closer to his 10-WAR 2024 self. Outside of him, Jac Caglianone has broken out in a big way, and Carter Jensen has made a name for himself behind the plate. It’s been a brutal year for Team Italy captain Vinnie Pasquantino and a down year for former All-Star Maikel Garcia, so if you’re looking at guys to step up for a better 2027, it’s them.
Noah Cameron and Michael Wacha have combined to make 56 starts with sub-4 ERAs apiece, but they’ve struggled to find depth behind them. Their best-performing starter outside that tandem? Randy Dobnak, who you might remember from the 2019 ALDS. Seth Lugo has a 4.99 ERA in 30 starts as the only other guy to make at least 15, and it’s been a hodgepodge to try and fill the rest of the rotation.
It’s not like the bullpen’s been much better. John Schreiber, currently on the Yankees after being claimed off waivers, was their best reliever. Daniel Lynch IV has gotten away with a pretty small strikeout rate, but everyone else? Big regression for Matt Strahm, and Lucas Erceg hasn’t helped.
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