Loaded NBA Draft Closes Old Lottery System After Tanking-Fueled Season

NEW YORK — It’s the beginning of the end of the NBA draft as we know it. 

At least for now. 

On Tuesday, commissioner Adam Silver will announce the league’s latest draft class, which many consider to be the best in decades. It will also be the last one until at least 2029 under the league’s old rules, after an epic year of tanking led Silver to implement a new-look system to combat the practice. 

The NBA’s “3-2-1” lottery system will go into effect next season and further flatten the lottery odds, and teams with the 4th- to 10th-worst records will have slightly higher odds at the No. 1 pick than the three worst, which is called “the relegation zone.” The system was approved by the league’s owners in May and will be in effect until before the 2030 draft, when it can be revisited. 

The draft is one of the NBA’s busiest transaction periods, rivaling February’s trade deadline and July’s free agency. Will the league’s transactions look noticeably different on draft day in light of what’s coming? 

“I think superstars, teams are always going to trade first-round picks,” ESPN’s Bobby Marks told Front Office Sports. “I think the protection that has changed, you can’t protect a top-14 pick and the nuances with that. I think there’s a little bit of uncertainty when it comes to trading second-round picks just based on its inverse order, so there’s the unknown on where it lands. I think there is a little bit of hesitation here as far as just because we haven’t gone through it yet as far as where potential picks can be.”

Silver implemented the new system after roughly a third of the league tanked to get a high pick in a historically loaded draft. In February, he fined the Jazz and Pacers for resting star players for games or, in Utah’s case, in the middle of one and called it “worse this year than we’ve seen in recent memory.” 

But executives have previously told FOS that the draft goes beyond the top five, which is why tanking was as widespread as it was. 

“This is the year to have a lottery pick,” an Eastern Conference executive told FOS in December. “The whole lottery is stacked.”

The Wizards hold the No. 1 pick and are tasked with choosing among Darryn Peterson, AJ Dybantsa, and Cameron Boozer, with the Jazz, Grizzlies, and Bulls set to pick after them. Will the draft be remembered more for its supposed depth or the end of an era?

Should Dybantsa land with the Jazz at the No. 2 pick, he would unite, or reunite in a sense, with two of BYU’s most famous alumni. 

One of the nation’s top recruits, Dybantsa raised eyebrows when the Massachusetts native signed with Brigham Young out of high school to play for Kevin Young and the Cougars. Dybantsa’s NIL deal was rumored to be between $4 million and $7 million. 

Jazz owner Ryan Smith is a BYU alum and has been a major force for his alma mater, helping the Cougars get into a Power 4 conference (Big 12) after being independent for years. 

Smith, who also owns the NHL’s Mammoth, is worth $3.3 billion, according to Forbes. He has publicly denied any involvement in Dybantsa’s recruitment or NIL funding but met with the 6-foot-9 forward’s father, Ace, and financial adviser, Leonard Armato, multiple times before he signed with the school. At minimum, Smith’s work with his alma mater helped make the school more attractive for Dybantsa to sign there. BYU legend Danny Ainge is also the Jazz’s CEO. 

Asked by FOS about his relationship with Smith on Tuesday, Dybantsa confirmed they’ve interacted but didn’t elaborate. 

“I’ve seen him, obviously; I went to a lot of Jazz games,” Dybantsa said. “I got to be in his suite. We’ve talked.” 

It could be a historic draft for the upperclassmen, too. 

While mock drafts are as consistent as the weather, ESPN is currently projecting 27 seniors to be taken in the second round alone and as many as 30 total, which would account for more than half the draft. 

In 2025, 19 seniors were selected in the draft’s second round, which was the highest since 2004, when 19 seniors were drafted then, too. Wednesday’s second round is expected to break the record. 

The high number is a result of name, image, and likeness keeping fringe prospects in college basketball longer instead of taking a chance by staying in the draft. But as Marks pointed out, their first NBA contract will likely pay less than what they made in school. 

Being an upperclassman used to have a strong effect on a player’s draft prospects, as teams could favor a younger player with more potential than an older one who they’ve already seen enough from. But four-year players such as the Heat’s Jaime Jaquez Jr., who was runner-up for Sixth Man of the Year, have shown that older players can be more NBA-ready than one drafted on potential. 

“The shift isn’t because older players are more valued; the shift is because more younger players are choosing to go back to school,” ESPN analyst Jay Bilas told FOS. “It used to be an all-or-nothing decision. It’s not that way anymore.”

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