LaLiga predictions: Can Mourinho break Barcelona dominance on Real Madrid return?

Syndicated reporting provided by Stats Perform and reviewed by the SoccerNews editorial team.

After an off-season dominated by the biggest-ever World Cup, won by Spain at the expense of Argentina, league football is back for 2026-27.

LaLiga becomes the first of Europe’s big five leagues to get under way on Saturday, with Alaves facing Getafe and Sevilla hosting Rayo Vallecano.

Atletico Madrid open their campaign against Malaga the following Wednesday, before Real Madrid and Barcelona finally get going on the second weekend.

Hansi Flick’s Barca are the defending champions once again, after they ran away with the title for the second year in succession in 2025-26. This is the first time the Blaugrana have won back-to-back titles in the post-Lionel Messi era, having previously done so in 2017-18 and 2018-19.

You have to go back to Pep Guardiola’s tenure for the last time Barca won three straight LaLiga crowns, in 2008-09, 2009-10 and 2010-11. Can Flick repeat that achievement? 

Back in 2011-12, it was Jose Mourinho’s Madrid that dethroned Guardiola’s Barca, and ‘The Special One’ will now look to repeat the trick after returning to the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, 13 years on from his initial departure. 

Mourinho has plenty of talent at his disposal – Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham were two of the standout players at the World Cup, and Los Blancos have brought in Bernardo Silva, Marc Cucurella, Denzel Dumfries, Ibrahima Konate and Yan Diomande during the transfer window.

In a further boost, Vinicius Junior has penned a new contract after being linked with Arsenal, and the Brazilian will hope to get back to his best after an up-and-down 2025-26.

But Mourinho will not get a honeymoon period after two seasons without Madrid winning major silverware (LaLiga, Copa del Rey or the Champions League). They last failed to win any of those trophies in three successive campaigns between 2003-04 and 2005-06.

For the second time in three years, Spain’s ‘Big Three’ was broken up in 2025-26 as Villarreal beat Atletico Madrid to third. And, with LaLiga receiving an extra Champions League place, Real Betis also claimed a spot at Europe’s top table. Both of those clubs will have European aspirations again in 2026-27.

Meanwhile, last season’s relegation battle was one of the tightest in LaLiga history, with Sevilla among the surprise strugglers, and they could be in the mix again.

As for the promoted teams, Racing de Santander, Deportivo de A Coruna and Malaga are back in LaLiga after lengthy absences, having all dropped as low as the third tier in recent years. But are any of them here to stay?

Here, calling on the 10,000 data-led simulations run by the Opta supercomputer, we forecast how the 2026-27 LaLiga season might play out. 

Barca backed for third straight title despite Madrid spending

Unsurprisingly, Barcelona are the supercomputer’s title favourites, successfully defending their crown in 45.55% of simulations.

Doing so would make Flick only the second Blaugrana boss to win LaLiga in each of his first three seasons in charge, after Guardiola, and he has all the tools at his disposal.

Even if Robert Lewandowski has departed for MLS, he only made 17 league starts last season. Marcus Rashford’s exit could arguably be more impactful, after he provided 15 LaLiga goal involvements – including a brilliant free-kick in their title-clinching Clasico win over Madrid – while on loan from Manchester United.

But Barca moved quickly to replace Rashford, sealing an €80m deal for his England team-mate Anthony Gordon. Gordon’s relentless off-the-ball work and direct running should see him dovetail nicely with Barca’s other attackers, including Raphinha and Spain’s World Cup winner Lamine Yamal.

It may be a cliche, but a fully fit Raphinha could be like a new signing after he was restricted to 27 starts in all competitions last term. In 2024-25, the Brazilian was touted as a Ballon d’Or contender after racking up 56 goal involvements (34 goals, 22 assists).

The signing of former Borussia Dortmund speedster Karim Adeyemi should further bolster the Blaugrana’s attacking depth, even if Ferran Torres has been linked with Paris Saint-Germain.

Two-horse title races are the norm in LaLiga, and Madrid dethroned Barca in 30.96% of our season projections. 

Mourinho has been backed heavily by president Florentino Perez, who dismissed both Xabi Alonso and Alvaro Arbeloa last term. Madrid’s €140m move for Diomande is the standout LaLiga signing of the summer, after he provided 12 goals and eight assists during his lone Bundesliga season with RB Leipzig. 

He was one of just two players under the age of 24 to record 20+ goal involvements in one of Europe’s big five leagues last season, alongside Yamal (27 – 16 goals, 11 assists).

And one thing is for sure – the ball-carrying ability of Madrid’s frontline will give opposing defenders nightmares.

Among all players from Europe’s top five leagues in 2025-26, Mbappe (213), Vinicius (304) and Diomande (235) each ranked in the top six for dribbles attempted and the top seven for take-on-ending carries (Vinicius 201, Diomande 116, Mbappe 109).

Mbappe also has another landmark achievement in his sights after becoming the World Cup’s all-time leading scorer this summer. 

The Frenchman could top LaLiga’s goal charts for the third season in a row. Just seven players have ever achieved that feat, with only Messi doing so this century (five straight from 2016-17 to 2020-21).

Atletico Madrid are the supercomputer’s third favourites, although their 8.64% title probability puts them a long way adrift of the top two.

Diego Simeone’s side were exceptionally busy in the transfer market last year, making their eventual fourth-place finish a real disappointment – the Argentine reportedly considered standing down, but he eventually stuck around for what will be his 14th full season at the helm.

And though there have only been three incomings so far this summer, Alejandro Grimaldo, Morten Hjulmand and Lee Kang-in could all be prudent signings. Adding creativity is clearly the name of the game for Atleti, whose figure of 58.87 expected goals (xG) put them a long way away from the top two in 2025-26 (Barca 86.62, Madrid 78).

And with club-record scorer Antoine Griezmann leaving for Orlando City SC, Atleti will hope there is a big year in store for Ademola Lookman, a mid-season arrival in 2025-26 who managed nine goals in all competitions. 

Valencia, under Rafael Benitez in 2003-04, were the last team other than Barca, Madrid or Atletico to win LaLiga, and the supercomputer does not foresee a surprise champion. 

Villarreal (3.3%) and Real Betis (2.1%) headline the list of outsiders, followed by Valencia (1.57%), Vallecano (1.32%) and Celta Vigo (1.27%).

Villarreal and Real Betis to push for Europe again?

Barca (88.34%) and Madrid (81.06%) made the top four in an overwhelming number of simulations, but there could be an intriguing battle to join them at Europe’s top table. 

Atleti reached the top four in 48.57% of projections, but thereafter, there was little to choose between several clubs.

Villarreal appointed former Vallecano coach Inigo Perez after Marcelino’s resignation, and at 29.51%, they are deemed the next-most likely side to make the top four.

Georges Mikautadze emerged as their star performer last season with 19 LaLiga goal involvements (13 goals, six assists), but Nicolas Pepe, Tajon Buchanan and Alberto Moleiro also looked the part in their dynamic attack. Each of that trio scored four goals following carries in the league last campaign. 

Like Villarreal, Real Betis will also have to juggle Champions League football with their domestic commitments, and they have a 22.97% chance of making the top four. Betis have been ultra consistent since Manuel Pellegrini took the reins in 2020, finishing sixth, fifth, sixth, seventh, sixth and fifth under the Chilean. 

They had LaLiga’s leading chance creator last season, in former West Ham United playmaker Pablo Fornals (85), while wingers Antony and Abde Ezzalzouli put up a combined 42 goal involvements (Ezzalzouli 18, Antony 14). A headline friendly win over Arsenal suggested Pellegrini’s team have not missed a step in their preparations for 2026-27.

Next up are two sides that just came up short in last season’s European race. Valencia are assigned a 17.67% chance of a top-four finish, with Vallecano’s hopes rated at 16.69%.

Valencia have now gone seven years without qualifying for Europe, but Carlos Corberan has Spanish football’s sleeping giants looking up again. Vallecano, meanwhile, will hope Benat San Jose can build on Perez’s excellent work, having finished eighth in back-to-back seasons. 

Celta Vigo finished sixth in 2025-26, securing European football in back-to-back campaigns for just the second time in their history, and Claudio Giraldez’s side have a 16.28% top-four probability. Basque duo Athletic Club (11.69%) and Real Sociedad (10.93%) are the final teams assigned a greater than one-in-ten chance of gatecrashing the top four.

Both have reasons for optimism, with Athletic now led by former Dortmund coach Edin Terzic. Getting Spain’s Nico Williams back to full fitness could be a game-changer after he was limited to just 20 LaLiga starts last season and played a peripheral role in La Roja’s World Cup win.

La Real won the Copa del Rey under Pellegrino Matarazzo last campaign, and, like their local rivals, they have managed to keep hold of their star names – including Mikel Oyarzabal and Takefusa Kubo. 

Depending on the performances of Spanish teams in Europe, it could be that the top five qualify for the Champions League – as was the case last season.

Barca’s top-five chances are rated at 92%, compared to Madrid’s 87% and Atletico’s 58.4%. Villarreal (38.7%), Betis (31.1%), Valencia (25%), Vallecano (24.1%) and Celta (22.7%) are among the teams that could benefit if an extra place is awarded to Spain again.

Sevilla’s time could be up after close call with relegation 

If the European race promises to be close, the battle to avoid relegation could be sheer chaos, as 12 clubs have a relegation probability over 10%, and six are at 25% or higher. 

Deportivo are favourites for the drop ahead of their first LaLiga campaign since 2017-18, having come up as Segunda Division runners-up. 

They went down in 29.16% of simulations, though they will hope Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang can fire them to safety after joining from Marseille. The former Arsenal, Barcelona and Chelsea forward netted 14 times in all competitions during his time back in France, showing there is still gas in the tank.

Perhaps surprisingly, neither of the two next-most likely candidates are promoted clubs. Elche only survived by one point in 2025-26, and the supercomputer has them dropping in 28.36% of scenarios.

Fallen giants Sevilla are next, going down in 27.72% of simulations. The seven-time Europa League winners were in the thick of last season’s relegation battle and uncertainty currently shrouds their squad after experienced heads Alexis Sanchez, Cesar Azpilicueta, Orjan Nyland, Adnan Januzaj and Nemanja Gudelj all departed.

Sevilla’s incomings have focused on cheap, inexpensive players, and coach Luis García Plaza has found himself embroiled in plenty of relegation battles with other clubs. 

Segunda champions Racing de Santander are next with a 26.87% chance of the drop, with Espanyol relegated in 26.48% of sims. Malaga are back in the top flight after their play-off win, and they are sixth favourites to be relegated at 25.26%.

Levante (19.46%), Alaves (18.47%), Osasuna (17.17%) and even Getafe – who finished seventh under Jose Bordalas last season to qualify for the Conference League – are also deemed to be at risk, with the latter relegated in 18.49% of projections. 

Below Barca and Madrid, LaLiga has been one of Europe’s most fiercely contested leagues in recent years. More twists and turns are expected in 2026-27.

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