If the Valkyries win the WNBA Finals, who should win Finals MVP?

Three words: one win away. 

After a 64-55 defensive slugfest in Game 5 on Monday night, the Golden State Valkyries find themselves on the cusp of their first championship. Their defense led the dance, as it has all year, forcing the Dream into yet another low-efficiency, high-turnover contest.

They’re on the cusp of not just winning a championship, but putting a bow on one of the most impressive franchise sprints we’ve seen in sports history. Two cracks at one win, paying off a promise from Valkyries owner Joe Lacob that the team would win a championship within its first five years — with three to spare.

Expansion teams aren’t supposed to have success this early, but the Natalie Nakase-led group made the playoffs — behind a strong defense, of course — in their inaugural season. They’ve now followed up that campaign with a top-two standings finish — while having a historically great defense and leading the WNBA in net rating (+9.1) — and two impressive series wins over the Dallas Wings and Las Vegas Aces.

But of course, three more words: job’s not finished.

They still have to finish their dinner. It’s not like the Dream are incapable of bouncing back and stringing together wins; we’re roughly a week removed from the Dream countering a Game 1 loss by reeling off two straight impressive victories. 

With the Valkyries one win away, though, it’s natural to look ahead to what that means on the individual side. Finals MVP is generally an easy checklist:

• Did your team win?

• Are you the team’s top scoring option?

• If not, are you at least your team’s top decision-maker?

• Were you at least serviceable defensively?

Just go down the list of Finals MVP winners over the past 10 years: A’ja Wilson (x2), Jonquel Jones, Chelsea Gray, Kahleah Copper, Breanna Stewart (x2), Emma Meesseman, Sylvia Fowles, and Candace Parker. Every last one of them fit into at least two, if not three of those points.

The #StrengthInNumbers vibe of this Valkyries group makes this a more interesting conversation to sort through. As such, let’s talk through the cases of who I believe to be their top-3 options if they’re able to pull this off. 

Let’s dig in, shall we?

Kiah Stokes

• Stats: 5.6 points (69/38/50 splits; 64.0 true shooting), 10.6 rebounds (3.0 OREB), 3.4 blocks

THE CASE FOR STOKES

For a series that has undoubtedly been defined by defense, Stokes’ defense has stood out this entire series. It would be easy to point to the blocks; she’s not only leading the Finals in blocks per game, but she now has the record for most blocks in a Finals series.

She has been the lone consistent answer to the Angel Reese Experience in this series. While Reese has been able to win matchups against Kayla Thornton, Laeticia Amihere, Aminata Gueye and others, she hasn’t had an answer for Stokes. As written in this space, Reese was a ghastly 5-of-21 on shots contested by Stokes after Game 4; you can add Game 5’s 0-for-3 count to the tally now.

The rim protection and shot deterrence has been there. The rebounding has been stout, on both ends of the floor. There’s been little success from the Dream when they’ve attempted to run a pick-and-roll in Stokes’ direction. 

THE CASE AGAINST STOKES

As timely and impactful as Stokes’ 13-point surge in Game 5 was, the flip side of that is Stokes having 15 points in the series entering Game 5. History wouldn’t be on her side: Detroit Shock center Ruth Riley’s 14.7 points per game in 2003 is the lowest average we’ve seen from a Finals MVP winner.

Stokes isn’t tasked with a heavy scoring load, and she does provide value as a screener (on and off the ball) and mid-possession connector with handoffs, but it’s fair to note the lack of scoring prowess and scouting report equity compared to Gabby Williams or Veronica Burton. 

The other thing that hurts her case, at least statistically: the Valkyries have lost her minutes in the series so far (-16 in 147 minutes), something you can’t say for Burton (+4 in 159 minutes) or Williams (neutral in 167 minutes).

Veronica Burton

• Stats: 9.0 points (31/26/78 splits; 38.2 true shooting), 4.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.6 steals, 2.0 blocks

THE CASE FOR BURTON

It also starts with defense for Burton. 

She’s spent most of the series making life miserable for Jordin Canada; per Synergy tracking data, Canada is a whopping 6-of-24 (25% FG) on shots defended by Burton. There have been spells where she’s been moved around the board, notably taking the Rhyne Howard assignment in Game 3.

Beyond the on-ball stuff, Burton has been phenomenal as an off-ball defender. There’s still the navigation that comes with tracking Atlanta’s pindowns and staggers, but she’s provided real juice as a rim protector. She has consistently nailed her low-man responsibilities when put in that spot, culminating in a four-block explosion in Game 5 — one that put her name next to the legendary Diana Taurasi as the only guards in Finals history to log four blocks in a Finals game.

On the other end, Burton hasn’t been at her usual level (more on that shortly), but she’s been a timely shot-maker in Golden State’s three wins. Her drives, and the playmaking tied to those drives, have also been important as they’ve searched for answers to Atlanta’s excellent defense.

THE CASE AGAINST BURTON

To put it plainly: Burton simply has not scored enough or done so efficiently enough. 

While the driving volume perking up has been a welcome development, she hasn’t had a consistent dose of finishing or foul-drawing (1.8 free throw attempts per game) to really put a stamp on her case. Add in porous 3-point shooting (with relatively low volume), and you kinda have to ding her for that.

Gabby Williams

• Stats: 16.2 points (35/20/88 splits; 40.1 true shooting), 3.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.6 steals

THE CASE FOR WILLIAMS

It’s a straightforward case to make: she’s both at the top of the scouting report for the Dream, while largely being tasked with defending the Dream’s best perimeter player (Howard) in the process. 

Williams leads both teams in scoring (16.2), is second only to Howard in fourth-quarter scoring (23), and it’s hard to overstate just how stout Williams has been defensively. Her off-ball work in particular has been superb, a big reason why she’s leading the Finals in steals (2.6) and almost assuredly leading everyone in deflections if that was tracked anywhere publicly. 

She doesn’t have an easy job on either end of the floor, and she’s handling that burden while operating at less than 100%.

(To Williams’ credit, she has been asked about her knee — and, in general, how she’s doing — multiple times throughout the series and she’s practically shut down any talks that she’s hurt. We also have eyes and know how competitive these players are. They won’t be giving an inch.)

THE CASE AGAINST WILLIAMS

Voters will have to weigh Williams’ two-way responsibility — and the fact she likely isn’t 100% — with the fact she’s converted 35% of her 2s and 20% of her 3s in the process. It’s been an isolation-heavy series for Williams, mostly out of necessity, but the efficiency simply hasn’t been there to this point.