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Home Sports Four stats that put Texas’ comeback into perspective

Four stats that put Texas’ comeback into perspective

· · 2 min read

Elite teams close games.

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That holds especially true for top-ranked teams, who get there through enough talent to earn preseason accolades or by actually winning games.

Against that context, the No. 4 Texas Longhorns rallying from down 20 points at the start of the fourth quarter to beat the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes 24-23 is an historic comeback of impressive proportions.

According to ESPN, Texas is the first time to come back from that deficit in the last 22 years, ending a 197-game losing streak for teams in a similar situation.

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Since 2004, AP No. 1 teams are 197-0 when holding a 20-point lead at any point in the 4th quarter.

Until Texas happened 🤘 (via @TexasFootball) pic.twitter.com/F9aF3dfUzd

— ESPN (@espn) September 13, 2026

Teams were 0-223 when trailing by 17-plus points vs. an AP No. 1 team since 2003.

Texas just went up 24-23 with 25 seconds left after trailing by 20 earlier this half.

— Chris Hummer (@chris_hummer) September 13, 2026

Expanding the range slightly broadens the scope to 223 teams that lost when down by 17 or more points at any time in the game.

How improbable was the comeback statistically? The win probability for Ohio State reached a high of 98.3 percent when a one-yard completion by Arch Manning set up 3rd and 9 late in the third quarter.

Texas comeback!

According to ESPN Analytics Texas had a 1.7% chance to win at the 2:53 mark in the 3rd quarter 😱 https://t.co/P81unyN7qJpic.twitter.com/it7nsNF6nv

— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) September 13, 2026

After Manning threw incomplete on that down, he had to convert 4th and 9, finding tight end Emaree Winston on the run, the play that ended up sparking the comeback when the Longhorns eventually scored their first touchdown of the game, the first of three consecutive drives that ended in the end zone.

Where does the game rank historically for Texas?

It ties for the fourth-largest comeback in school history, just behind some of the most remarkable games of the modern era, including overcoming major deficits in wins over Oklahoma State in 2004 and 2007 and recovering from a 21-point lead held by Texas Tech.

If this score holds, this will be tied for the fourth-largest comeback in school history. Texas entered the fourth quarter with a 20-point deficit. #HookEmpic.twitter.com/ivCXTUS9vI

— Danny Davis (@_dannydavis) September 13, 2026

The 2007 win over the Cowboys might be the most similar in terms of deficit — the Horns trailed 35-14 in the fourth quarter before reeling off 24 unanswered points with the help of three rushing touchdowns, two by Jamaal Charles.

But Oklahoma State wasn’t a good team that year, so the fact that Texas pulled off Saturday’s win after trailing by 20 points in the fourth quarter against the No. 1 team makes it the most impressive comeback in school history.

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Nairavoice
Contributor at NairaVoice.com.ng